Dynamics of ecological footprint in China

The ecological footprint of China from 1978 to 2003 was studied, and the forecast models of ecological footprint and ecological capacity were obtained. The results of the analyses on dynamics of ecological footprints show that the ecological footprint per capita gradually increased from 0.8992hm² in 1978 to 2.2522hm² in 2003, and the ecological capacity increased from 0.7722hm² to 0.8819hm². The ecological deficit was 0.127hm² in 1978, and rose to 1.3702hm² by 2003. The forecast shows that the ecological footprint per capita will be 2.7767hm² in 2010 and 3.1717hm² in 2015, and that the ecological capacity per capita will be 1.0224hm² in 2010 and 1.1319hm² in 2015, and that the ecological deficit per capita will reach to 1.7543hm² in 2010 and 2.0398hm² in 2015. The research indicates that the present developing mode is not sustainable, the ecological environment is at risk, and the conflicts between ecological footprint and ecological capacity are becoming more and more obvious.