Estimation of elasticity relationship between agricultural ecosystem service values and urbanization

The intensification of human activities and global climate change has exerted immense pressure on the ecological environment. According to the Millennium Ecosystem Services Assessment, approximately 60% of ecosystem services are declining globally. Therefore, to better maintain ecological health, promote human well-being, and achieve more sustainability in harmonizing environmental protection and socio-economic development, there is an urgent need to explore the relationship between ecosystem service values and urbanization. Using remote sensing monitoring data of land use from 2005 to 2015, this study investigated 58 counties in the hilly region of central Hunan Province. The transfer matrix of land use, evaluation method of ecosystem service values, estimation of the urbanization level, bivariate local spatial autocorrelation analysis, and construction of the elastic coefficient were used to analyze the spatial-temporal relationship between ecosystem service values and urbanization. The results showed that: 1) from 2005 to 2015, the value of agroecosystem services values decreased by ￥ 23.75×10⁸, and the high- and low-value areas were adjacent to each other in the hilly region of central Hunan Province. The level of urbanization increased by 6.24% in general, with low levels in the middle of the hilly area and high levels near the perimeter. 2) There were significant negative spatial correlations between the urbanization level and agroecosystem service values (P < 0.001) from 2005 to 2015. 3) The relationship between urbanization and agroecosystem service values was inconsistent in the hilly region of central Hunan Province from 2005 to 2015. These results provide a reference for coordinating the relationship between urban expansion, agricultural production, and the ecological benefits, strengthening the protection of green vegetation, reasonably controlling the growth of construction land, promoting the adjustment of industrial structure, and exploring the intensive and economic utilization of resources during land space planning.