Agglomeration and spatial dependence of organic agriculture in China

Although organic agriculture is an important way to realize the green development of agriculture, the supported policies from the public sectors are necessary. It is important to accurately grasp the spatial distribution of organic agriculture in China as well as test the agglomeration and spatial dependence of organic agriculture in China for the public sectors to design policies. Assuming that agglomeration and spatial dependence do matter in organic agriculture distribution, this paper explored the localization and spatial clusters of organic agriculture in China on a provincial level from 2013 to 2018. Firstly, we use Jenks natural break class to analyze the spatial distribution of organic agriculture in China. Then, we use EG index, location entropy and industrial agglomeration index to analyze the agglomeration of organic agricultural. Finally, Moran's I index is used to check the spatial dependence, the hot/cold spot analysis based on the local Getis-Ord G_i^* statistics and standard deviation ellipse method are used to discuss the local spatial agglomeration pattern and evolution trend furtherly. The results show that: 1) the organic agriculture has not been expanded evenly across China instead concentrating in certain regions, based on the proportion of organic production area and organic product certification demonstration area, Northeast and western regions have advantages; while based on the organic product certification and organic certified enterprises, the eastern region has advantages. 2) the EG index of organic agriculture in China is greater than 0.02 and has exceeded 0.05 after 2016, which indicates the high degree of agglomeration in China's organic agriculture. The industrial agglomeration index and location entropy of Qinghai, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Xinjiang and Hainan are all greater than 1, which indicates that these provinces have obvious agglomeration advantages in organic agriculture. 3) The global Moran's I is greater than zero and increases year by year, which indicates that there exists the positive spatial dependence among the provinces adjacent to each other. The hot spots of organic agriculture mainly expanded from northeast to west, the cold spots and sub-cold spots spread in the middle and eastern region. The distribution and center of gravity of organic agriculture showed a trend from northeast to west. There are various reasons for the remarkable agglomeration of organic agriculture in China. In addition to the location factors such as the regional favorable climate and policy, agglomeration effect and spatial dependence are also considered important in determining spatial distribution of organic agriculture. Potential policy implication should include a concentration of development measures for organic farming in certain regions. It may be better to support the development of organic agriculture in underdeveloped areas with good ecological environment. Regions with agglomeration advantages in organic agriculture, the government can enhance the concentration degree of organic agriculture through further supporting policies, and form a virtuous circle of agglomeration and diffusion. Places adjacent to the agglomeration regions benefit from the spillover effects to achieve the promotion of organic agriculture. Targeted policies from the public sectors may be more conducive to the development of organic agriculture than inclusive policies.