Analysis of Spatial and Temporal Characteristics and Driving Factors of 'Non-grain' Cultivated Land in Hebei Province
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Graphical Abstract
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Abstract
In recent years, the rapid development of "non-grainization" of cultivated land in China has become a significant factor affecting food security. This article, based on the perspective of national food security, clarifies the spatial differentiation characteristics and driving factors of "non-grainization" of cultivated land in Hebei Province, providing decision-making references for the prevention and control of "non-grainization" and the optimization of cultivated land use. The study employs a combination of spatial autocorrelation, center of gravity migration models, and geographic detectors to comprehensively analyze the temporal and spatial changes in the quantification of cultivated land in Hebei Province from 2000 to 2020, and its driving factors were also explored. The findings showed that: (1) The average "non-grainization" rates in Hebei Province for the years 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020 were 0.23, 0.24, 0.27, 0.26, and 0.20, respectively, demonstrating an overall trend of initial increase followed by a decrease. (2) The non-grainization rates spatially exhibit a pattern of higher levels in the southeastern (Xingtai, Hengshui), northeastern (Tangshan, Qinhuangdao), and northwestern (Chengde, Zhangjiakou) regions of Hebei Province, while other areas remain comparatively lower. The global Moran’s I index shows a trend of initial increase, followed by a decrease, and then a resurgence. (3) Over the past two decades, the clustering of non-grainization in Hebei Province has primarily been characterized by "low-low" and "high-high" clusters, with the spatial centers of clustering exhibiting differentiation over time. (4) During the study period, the natural resource endowments and production condition factors played a dominant role in the spatial differentiation of "non-grainization" in Hebei Province, while the impact of socioeconomic development levels and population quality has deepened over time. (5) The interaction between any two factors significantly enhances the explanatory power for the spatial differentiation of "non-grainization, " indicating that the phenomenon in Hebei Province results from the combined effects of natural resource endowments, production conditions, socioeconomic development levels, and population quality. Through the analysis of the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics and driving factors of "non-grainization" in Hebei Province, this study aims to further consolidate the achievements in non-grainization governance and provide a decision-making reference for the government to formulate precise measures for the prevention and control of "non-grainization."
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