| Citation: |
LI C H, HUO Z G, GUO R G, CAI Z, LI X X, ZHOU Y. Comprehensive risk assessment and zoning of low-temperature freezing damage for citrus in Ganzhou[J]. Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture, 2025, 33(10): 1−11. DOI: 10.12357/cjea.20240602
|
This research evaluated the comprehensive risk of low-temperature freezing damage during the wintering period, so as to provide scientific basis for carrying out meteorological disaster risk management and optimizing planting layout of citrus according to local conditions. Based on the mechanism of meteorological disaster risk formation, hazard, exposure, vulnerability, disaster prevention and mitigation ability indices were constructed using meteorological data, distribution data of citrus planting areas in southern Jiangxi, citrus statistical data, and agricultural production data to conduct comprehensive risk assessment and zoning of low-temperature freezing damage during the wintering period for citrus in Ganzhou City. The results indicated that the hazard of low-temperature freezing damage for citrus showed a characteristic of being low in the middle and increasing from the middle to the northeast and southwest. High-risk areas were mainly concentrated in the areas near Wuyi Mountains and Jiulian Mountains, including Ningdu, Shicheng, Ruijin, and eastern Huichang in eastern Ganzhou and southeastern Quannan in southern Ganzhou. Citrus orchards in Ganzhou were mainly concentrated in the northeastern, southeastern, and southern areas, and the largest citrus planting area as well as its proportion in each county (district) were in Xunwu and Anyuan in southeastern Ganzhou. High vulnerability areas were concentrated in Chongyi in western Ganzhou, Anyuan and Xinfeng in central southern Ganzhou, and Quannan in southern Ganzhou. Low disaster prevention and mitigation ability areas were mainly located in Ningdu and Shicheng in northeastern Ganzhou, Shangyou in western Ganzhou, Anyuan in central southern Ganzhou, and Zhanggong in central Ganzhou. The comprehensive risk of low-temperature freezing damage for citrus was characterized by high risk in the northeastern and southeastern areas, and low risk in the central and central southern areas. The low comprehensive risk areas of low-temperature freezing damage for citrus were mainly located in Longnan, western Dingnan in southern Ganzhou, Xinfeng, Huichang in central southern Ganzhou, western Yudu, most of Ganxian, Nankang, Zhanggong in central Ganzhou, and Dayu in western Ganzhou. The high comprehensive risk areas were mainly located in most of Ningdu, Shicheng, Ruijin, Anyuan, and Quannan. The comprehensive risk zoning results in this research had good reliability and practicality, and had certain directive significance for design of citrus planting.
| [1] |
齐乐, 祁春节. 世界柑橘产业现状及发展趋势[J]. 农业展望, 2016, 12(12): 46−52 doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-3908.2016.12.010
QI L, QI C J. Status quo and development trend of world’s citrus industry[J]. Agricultural Outlook, 2016, 12(12): 46−52 doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-3908.2016.12.010
|
| [2] |
王莹. 基于柑橘黄龙病的广东省柑橘种植区划分析[D]. 佛山: 佛山科学技术学院, 2018
WANG Y. Research on regional distribution of citrus based on Huanglongbing in Guangdong Province[D]. Foshan: Foshan University of Science and Technology, 2018
|
| [3] |
赵彤. 基于GIS的重庆市柑橘农业气候区划[D]. 重庆: 重庆师范大学, 2018
ZHAO T. The study on agricultural climate regionalization of citrus in Chongqing Province based on GIS[D]. Chongqing: Chongqing Normal University, 2018
|
| [4] |
中华人民共和国国家统计局. 中国统计年鉴. 2002(总第21期)[M]. 北京: 中国统计出版社, 2002
National Bureau of Statistics of China. Statistical Yearbook of China. 2002 (No. 21) [M]. Beijing: China Statistics Press, 2002
|
| [5] |
金国花, 涂婷, 李翔翔, 等. 南丰蜜橘高接金秋砂糖橘冻害的致灾机制与灾害等级指标[J]. 中南农业科技, 2024(3): 71−75 doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1007-273X.2024.03.015
JIN G H, TU T, LI X X, et al. Disaster mechanism and disaster grade index of freezing injury of Nanfeng tangerine grafted with autumn sugar orange[J]. South-Central Agricultural Science and Technology, 2024(3): 71−75 doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1007-273X.2024.03.015
|
| [6] |
王登亮, 刘春荣, 吴群, 等. 衢州柑橘冻害发生规律及其防控措施初探[J]. 中南农业科技, 2023(1): 92−95 doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1007-273X.2023.01.025
WANG D L, LIU C R, WU Q, et al. Preliminary exploration on the occurrence pattern and prevention and control measures of citrus freezing damage in Quzhou[J]. South-Central Agricultural Science and Technology, 2023(1): 92−95 doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1007-273X.2023.01.025
|
| [7] |
徐彬, 曲颖慧, 房庆国, 等. 象山“红美人” 柑橘种植气候区划及气象灾害风险区划研究[J]. 现代农业科技, 2024(12): 144−149 doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1007-5739.2024.12.036
XU B, QU Y H, FANG Q G, et al. Climatic zoning and meteorological disaster risk zoning of Xiangshan “Hongmeiren” citrus planting[J]. Modern Agricultural Science and Technology, 2024(12): 144−149 doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1007-5739.2024.12.036
|
| [8] |
邓秀新, 彭抒昂. 柑橘学[M]. 北京: 中国农业出版社, 2013
DENG X X, PENG S A. Citrus Science[M]. Beijing: China Agriculture Press, 2013
|
| [9] |
李时睿, 朱兰娟, 赵亮, 等. 安吉白茶精细化气象灾害风险分析与区划[J]. 生态学杂志, 2024, 43(3): 904−912
LI S R, ZHU L J, ZHAO L, et al. Refined meteorological risk analysis and zoning of Anji white tea[J]. Chinese Journal of Ecology, 2024, 43(3): 904−912
|
| [10] |
王纯枝, 霍治国, 郭安红, 等. 中国北方冬小麦蚜虫气候风险评估[J]. 应用气象学报, 2021, 32(2): 160−174 doi: 10.11898/1001-7313.20210203
WANG C Z, HUO Z G, GUO A H, et al. Climatic risk assessment of winter wheat aphids in northern China[J]. Journal of Applied Meteorological Science, 2021, 32(2): 160−174 doi: 10.11898/1001-7313.20210203
|
| [11] |
杨建莹, 霍治国, 吴立, 等. 西南地区水稻洪涝灾害风险评估与区划[J]. 中国农业气象, 2016, 37(5): 564−577 doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2016.05.009
YANG J Y, HUO Z G, WU L, et al. Flood risk assessment and zoning for rice in southwest China[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2016, 37(5): 564−577 doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2016.05.009
|
| [12] |
王迅, 熊博, 李启权, 等. 四川省晚熟柑橘生态气候适宜性区划研究[J]. 中国农学通报, 2021, 37(13): 94−101 doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb2020-0679
WANG X, XIONG B, LI Q Q, et al. Analyzing and zoning of eco-climate suitability of late-maturing citrus in Sichuan[J]. Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin, 2021, 37(13): 94−101 doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb2020-0679
|
| [13] |
赵祖华, 华琦孜, 李陶桂, 等. 广西全州县柑橘种植的气候适宜性分析及区划[J]. 安徽农业科学, 2013, 41(35): 13496−13497 doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0517-6611.2013.35.017
ZHAO Z H, HUA Q Z, LI T G, et al. Climate suitability analysis and zoning of citrus cultivation in Quanzhou County, Guangxi[J]. Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences, 2013, 41(35): 13496−13497 doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0517-6611.2013.35.017
|
| [14] |
林正雨, 陈强, 邓良基, 等. 基于MaxEnt和MCR的四川省柑橘生产布局模拟[J]. 中国农业资源与区划, 2019, 40(9): 64−74
LIN Z Y, CHEN Q, DENG L J, et al. Simulation of citrus production layout in Sichuan Province based on MaxEnt and MCR[J]. Chinese Journal of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, 2019, 40(9): 64−74
|
| [15] |
林正雨, 陈强, 邓良基, 等. 四川柑橘适宜分布及其对气候变化的响应研究[J]. 中国生态农业学报(中英文), 2019, 27(6): 845−859
LIN Z Y, CHEN Q, DENG L J, et al. Response of suitable distribution of citrus in Sichuan Province to climate change[J]. Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture, 2019, 27(6): 845−859
|
| [16] |
刘聪, 李凯伟, 张继权, 等. 基于气候适宜度的南方柑橘种植精细化气候区划[J]. 应用气象学报, 2021, 32(4): 421−431 doi: 10.11898/1001-7313.20210404
LIU C, LI K W, ZHANG J Q, et al. Refined climatic zoning for citrus cultivation in southern China based on climate suitability[J]. Journal of Applied Meteorological Science, 2021, 32(4): 421−431 doi: 10.11898/1001-7313.20210404
|
| [17] |
付世军, 刘书慧, 卢德全, 等. 基于概率回归和信息扩散理论的南充晚熟柑橘低温冻害指标体系研究[J]. 中国农学通报, 2024, 40(12): 38−44 doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb2023-0622
FU S J, LIU S H, LU D Q, et al. A study on the low temperature freeze damage index system of late mature citrus in Nanchong based on probability regression and information diffusion theory[J]. Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin, 2024, 40(12): 38−44 doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb2023-0622
|
| [18] |
柏秦凤, 霍治国, 王景红, 等. 中国主要果树气象灾害指标研究进展[J]. 果树学报, 2019, 36(9): 1229−1243
BAI Q F, HUO Z G, WANG J H, et al. Progress in research on meteorological disaster indicators of major fruit trees in China[J]. Journal of Fruit Science, 2019, 36(9): 1229−1243
|
| [19] |
张养才, 霍治国. 中国柑桔周期性冻害问题的研究[J]. 应用气象学报, 1991, 2(1): 52−58
ZHANG Y C, HUO Z G. A study on the periodicity freeze injury of orange in China[J]. Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology, 1991, 2(1): 52−58
|
| [20] |
殷剑敏, 缪启龙, 李迎春, 等. 南丰蜜桔冻害的气候指标及风险评估[J]. 中国农业气象, 2008, 29(4): 507−510 doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2008.04.028
YIN J M, MIAO Q L, LI Y C, et al. Climate index and risk assessment of frozen injury of Nanfeng tangerine (Citrus reticulata)[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2008, 29(4): 507−510 doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2008.04.028
|
| [21] |
蔡哲, 刘芳, 李迎春, 等. 赣州地区脐橙冻害精细化气候风险区划研究[J]. 江西农业学报, 2011, 23(3): 123−125 doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-8581.2011.03.038
CAI Z, LIU F, LI Y C, et al. Climatic hazard analysis and fine regionalization of cold injury to navel orange in Ganzhou Area[J]. Acta Agriculturae Jiangxi, 2011, 23(3): 123−125 doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-8581.2011.03.038
|
| [22] |
张继权, 李宁. 主要气象灾害风险评价与管理的数量化方法及其应用[M]. 北京: 北京师范大学出版社, 2007
ZHANG J Q, LI N. Quantitative Methods and Applications of Risk Assessment and Management on Main Meteorological Disasters[M]. Beijing: Beijing Normal University Press, 2007
|
| [23] |
李春晖, 霍治国, 孔瑞, 等. 南方三个省电线积冰时空分布特征[J]. 气象, 2023, 49(12): 1509−1520 doi: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2023.060601
LI C H, HUO Z G, KONG R, et al. Spatio-temporal distribution of wire icing in three southern provinces[J]. Meteorological Monthly, 2023, 49(12): 1509−1520 doi: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2023.060601
|
| [24] |
戴娟, 潘益农, 刘青, 等. 改进的AHP在县域尺度暴雨洪涝风险评价的应用[J]. 气象科学, 2014, 34(4): 428−434 doi: 10.3969/2013jms.0093
DAI J, PAN Y N, LIU Q, et al. Application of improved AHP in county-scale rainstorm and flood risk assessment[J]. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences, 2014, 34(4): 428−434 doi: 10.3969/2013jms.0093
|
| [25] |
汤国安, 杨昕. ArcGIS地理信息系统空间分析实验教程[M]. 2版. 北京: 科学出版社, 2012
TANG G A, YANG X. ArcGIS Geographic Information System Spatial Analysis Experimental Tutorial[M]. 2nd ed. Beijing: Science Press, 2012
|
| [26] |
温克刚, 陈双溪. 中国气象灾害大典: 江西卷[M]. 北京: 气象出版社, 2006
WEN K G, CHEN S X. China Meteorological Disaster Encyclopedia: Jiangxi Volume[M]. Beijing: China Meteorological Press, 2006
|
| [27] |
郭城玮, 华友, 郭鑫宇. 1961—2022年赣州市冬季气温时空变化及其对柑橘的影响[J]. 中南农业科技, 2024(3): 116−120 doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1007-273X.2024.03.025
GUO C W, HUA Y, GUO X Y. Temporal and spatial changes of winter temperature in Ganzhou City from 1961 to 2022 and its impact on citrus[J]. South-Central Agricultural Science and Technology, 2024(3): 116−120 doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1007-273X.2024.03.025
|
| [28] |
谢远玉, 谢妍玥, 张韵启, 等. 赣州农业巨灾保险气象灾害指数设计[J]. 气象与减灾研究, 2021, 44(3): 209−214 doi: 10.12013/qxyjzyj2021-031
XIE Y Y, XIE Y Y, ZHANG Y Q, et al. Design of meteorological disaster index for agricultural catastrophe insurance in Ganzhou[J]. Meteorology and Disaster Reduction Research, 2021, 44(3): 209−214 doi: 10.12013/qxyjzyj2021-031
|
| [29] |
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Climate Change 2021 – the Physical Science Basis[M]. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2023
|
| [30] |
吴立, 杜晓杰, 孙朝锋, 等. 基于GIS的福建芙蓉李气候适宜性区划[J]. 中国生态农业学报(中英文), 2024, 32(2): 321−329 doi: 10.12357/cjea.20230415
WU L, DU X J, SUN C F, et al. Climatic suitability regionalization of Furong plums based on GIS in Fujian Province[J]. Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture, 2024, 32(2): 321−329 doi: 10.12357/cjea.20230415
|
| [31] |
朱军, 王金晨, 张琪, 等. 变暖环境下华北地区农业气象灾害风险评估Ⅰ: 基于综合指标体系法农业干旱风险评估及适应对策建议[J]. 中国农业气象, 2024, 45(5): 549−561 doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2024.05.010
ZHU J, WANG J C, ZHANG Q, et al. Risk assessment of agrometeorological disasters in North China under warming environment Ⅰ: Agricultural drought risk assessment and adaptation countermeasures based on comprehensive index system method[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2024, 45(5): 549−561 doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2024.05.010
|
| [32] |
谢远玉, 张智勇, 黄雪松, 等. 赣南脐橙冻害风险评估和区划[J]. 自然灾害学报, 2013, 22(6): 217−222
XIE Y Y, ZHANG Z Y, HUANG X S, et al. Risk assessment and zoning of freeze injury to navel orange in south Jiangxi[J]. Journal of Natural Disasters, 2013, 22(6): 217−222
|
Supported by: Beijing Renhe Information Technology Co., Ltd. 
DownLoad: