Decoupling effects and drivers of agricultural carbon emissions in the three gorges reservoir area of Chongqing

Concerning carbon peaks and carbon neutrality goals, exploring the characteristics of agricultural carbon emissions and their driving factors in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area of Chongqing can provide a scientific basis for developing low-carbon agriculture in the reservoir area. The agricultural carbon emissions in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area of Chongqing from 2015 to 2022 were calculated, the temporal and spatial differences in agricultural carbon emissions and agricultural carbon emission intensity in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area of Chongqing were systematically analyzed, and the decoupling relationship between agricultural carbon emissions and agricultural economic growth was analyzed using the Tapio decoupling model and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) carbon emission factor method. Furthermore, the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) model was applied to analyze the driving factors of agricultural carbon emissions in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area of Chongqing. The results showed that the total agricultural carbon emissions in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area of Chongqing showed an overall fluctuation reduction trend, and the total agricultural carbon emissions decreased from 6.46×10⁶ t in 2015 to 6.21×10⁶ t in 2022. The main source of agricultural carbon emissions in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area of Chongqing is farmland soil use, enteric fermentation and manure management processes in livestock and poultry farming were also major carbon emission sources. The agricultural carbon emission intensity in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area of Chongqing showed a decreasing trend, and the gap of carbon emission intensity among different districts and counties in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area of Chongqing gradually narrowed. Overall, the decoupling relationship between agricultural economic growth and agricultural carbon emissions in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area of Chongqing from 2015 to 2022 showed a decoupling relationship. The total value of agricultural production increased, and agricultural carbon emissions rebounded with the recovery and development of agricultural production. The decoupling relationship between agricultural economic growth and agricultural carbon emissions changed from strong decoupling relationship to weak decoupling relationship with 2019 as the turning point. Factors such as agricultural production efficiency, population size, and industrial structure inhibited the growth of agricultural carbon emissions in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area of Chongqing, whereas agricultural economic scale promoted the growth of agricultural carbon emissions. Based on the above results, this study puts forward relevant suggestions, such as focusing on reducing carbon emissions from livestock and poultry farming, controlling carbon emissions from farmland soil use, and exerting an inhibitory effect on agricultural production efficiency, agricultural population size, and agricultural industrial structure on agricultural carbon emissions in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area of Chongqing, with the hope of providing a theoretical basis for the development of low-carbon agriculture in the area.