Accounting of agricultural carbon emission and analysis of influencing factors in Hohhot-Baotou-Ordos economic circle of Inner Mongolia

Agricultural carbon emission accounting, a crucial step in identifying the main sources of carbon emissions in agricultural activities, plays an indispensable role in promoting the development of green and low-carbon agriculture and advancing the process of agricultural modernization. It serves as a powerful support for achieving high-quality agricultural development. This study takes the Hohhot-Baotou-Ordos economic circle in Inner Mongolia, which has a unique regional advantage, as the research object. Based on the panel data from 2011−2020, the carbon emissions from three aspects of the region's agricultural planting, breeding, and energy consumption are accounted for. By analyzing the changing trends in the time series and the differences in spatial distribution, the dynamic change characteristics of agricultural carbon emissions in the study area are revealed. Combined with the agricultural carbon emission intensity, the development levels of green and low-carbon agriculture in Hohhot, Baotou, and Ordos are comparatively analyzed, and an LMDI model is constructed to deeply explore various factors affecting agricultural carbon emissions. Most previous studies on agricultural carbon emissions usually only accounted for part of the agricultural activities, such as only the planting or breeding sector. In contrast, this research innovatively conducts a more systematic and comprehensive accounting from three aspects: planting, breeding, and energy consumption, providing more detailed data. Moreover, instead of focusing on a provincial area, this study targets a typical agricultural economic zone with unique characteristics, which can offer more targeted insights for similar regions. The research results show that: 1) In the planting industry, the main carbon emission sources are concentrated in the application of chemical fertilizers and pesticides during crop cultivation. In the breeding industry, it is mainly the CH₄ gas produced by the fermentation of livestock feed during intestinal digestion. In terms of energy consumption, the greenhouse gases mainly come from agricultural plastic films, agricultural diesel, and effective irrigation. 2) The total agricultural carbon emissions in the study area show a stable and slow growth trend. Among them, the carbon emissions from the planting industry rank first, accounting for more than 40%, followed by energy consumption, while the carbon emissions from the breeding industry are the least and show an obvious downward trend. 3) The total agricultural carbon emissions in Hohhot and Ordos are approximately equal, about twice that of Baotou. In Hohhot, the main carbon sources are the planting industry and energy consumption. The total carbon emissions in Ordos show a trend of "first rising and then falling", and the main carbon sources are the planting industry and the breeding industry. The total carbon emissions in Baotou remain at a relatively stable and low level. 4) The agricultural carbon emission intensity in the study area decreased from 4.584 t∙(10⁴¥)⁻¹ in 2011 to 0.2752 t∙(10⁴¥)⁻¹ in 2020, indicating a positive trend in the development of green and low-carbon agriculture. Especially, the development levels of green and low-carbon agriculture in Baotou and Ordos are significantly better than that in Hohhot. 5) Agricultural production efficiency and the level of economic scale have become important factors promoting the increase in agricultural carbon emissions, with agricultural production efficiency being the most significant. Human resource input, agricultural carbon emission intensity, and non-urbanization level have an inhibitory effect on the agricultural carbon emissions in the study area, among which human resource input is the most important inhibitory factor. The results of this study can provide a scientific research path for the agricultural carbon emission reduction work in the Hohhot-Baotou-Ordos economic circle in Inner Mongolia under the goal background of Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutrality.