The impact of new urbanization construction on the resilience of China’s agricultural economy: Empirical analysis based on the spatial difference-in-differences model

Understanding the implications of rapid urbanization in China for agricultural economic development is essential for fostering urban-rural harmony and enhancing the quality of agricultural growth. This study scrutinized the effects of new urbanization policies on the resilience of China’s agricultural economy and their spatial spillover effects using panel data from 31 provinces in China from 2006 to 2020. It used the spatial difference-in-differences model (SDM-DID) to conduct an empirical analysis to capture the complex interplay between urbanization dynamics and agricultural resilience. The results showed that: 1) spatial correlation analysis indicated a significant positive spatial correlation in China’s agricultural economic resilience, manifesting as “high-high” and “low-low” clustering patterns. 2) The baseline regression results showed that new urbanization policies significantly enhanced the agricultural economic resilience of the pilot provinces. 3) The SDM-DID results demonstrated that new urbanization policies had spatial spillover effects on agricultural economic resilience, with robustness confirmed through various tests, including changes in spatial weight matrices and placebo tests. 4) The mechanistic analysis suggested that new urbanization policies primarily improved agricultural economic resilience through technological progress, industrial structure optimization, and rural human capital enhancement. The conclusions of this study enrich the literature on the effects of new urbanization construction by highlighting the role of agricultural economic resilience. The innovative contribution of this study lies in its spatially informed analysis of policy impacts that offers valuable insights for policymakers aiming to balance urban development with agricultural sustainability. This study emphasizes the need for policies that consider the spatial dimensions of agricultural economic resilience to achieve broader economic and social benefits.