Influencing factors and prediction analysis of carbon emissions from the planting industry in Liaoning Province

Climate change has resulted from the continuous development of economies and societies. China would strive to reach peak carbon dioxide emissions before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality before 2060. Building a socialist ecological civilization with carbon reduction as an important task requires all industries to contribute to carbon reduction. Agriculture is a major carbon source of greenhouse gas emissions, and planting industry is an important component of agriculture. Hence, research on carbon emissions from the planting industry holds immense significance. Based on two types of carbon sources, agricultural land use and farmland soils, the factor coefficient method was used to calculate the carbon emissions from planting industry in Liaoning Province from 2003 to 2021. The logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) model was used to decompose the factors influencing the carbon emissions from planting industry in Liaoning Province, and the stochastic impacts by regression on population, affluence, and technology (STIRPAT) model was used to predict the carbon emissions from planting industry from 2022 to 2025. The results showed that: 1) The overall carbon emissions of the planting industry in Liaoning Province first increased and then decreased, reaching a peak in 2013. The main carbon source for agricultural land use was chemical fertilizers, and the main carbon source in farmland soils was rice. Carbon emissions from maize grew rapidly and exceeded those of rice for the first time in 2015. 2) Decomposition of influencing factors showed that the economic level was the most important factor promoting carbon emissions from planting industry in Liaoning Province, whereas production efficiency was the most important factor in restraining carbon emissions. The overall impact of industrial structure on carbon emissions was a suppressive effect, while the agricultural population had an increasing effect. 3) Under baseline and low-carbon scenarios, carbon emissions from planting industry in Liaoning Province showed a downward trend from 2022 to 2030. Based on above, short- and long-term policy recommendations are proposed for carbon emission reduction in planting industry in Liaoning Province. In the short-term, the mechanization and green upgrades of agricultural machinery should be promoted. To ensure long-term food security, reasonable adjustments should be made to the rural industrial structure, low-carbon planting technologies should be promoted, and the green production level of the planting industry should be comprehensively improved.