The situation, dynamic evolution, and prediction of carbon emissions in the planting industry of Sichuan Province

Strengthening the calculation of carbon emissions in the planting industry will provide support for advancing green and low-carbon transformations. Focusing on the entire process of the planting industry, from input to output, this study utilized carbon emission coefficients to estimate the carbon emissions of the planting industry in Sichuan Province from 2010 to 2021. This estimation includes carbon emissions from three main sources: agricultural land use, rice field CH₄ emissions, and agricultural land N₂O emissions. This study aims to reveal the temporal characteristics and regional differences in carbon emissions from the planting industry in Sichuan Province. Furthermore, kernel density analysis was employed to analyze the dynamic evolution trend of carbon emissions from the planting industry of Sichuan Province. In addition, a gray prediction model was utilized to predict carbon emissions and intensity from the planting industry of Sichuan Province from 2022 to 2030. The results showed that: 1) carbon emissions from the planting industry in Sichuan Province showed a fluctuating increasing trend from 2010 to 2016 and a fluctuating decresing trend from 2016 to 2021, while carbon emission intensity continued to decrease from 2010 to 2021. Agricultural land use and rice field CH₄ emissions were the primary contributors to carbon emissions from the planting industry. There was a decrease in the proportion of carbon emissions from agricultural land use and rice field CH₄ in 2021 compared to 2010, whereas the proportions of agricultural land N₂O emissions increased. 2) Significant differences exist in carbon emissions and intensity among the cities (prefectures) in Sichuan Province. In 2021, carbon emissions from the city (Nanchong) with the highest value was 24.69 times higher than that from the prefecture (Ganzi) with the lowest value, and carbon emission intensity of the city (Bazhong) with the highest value was 2.8 times higher than that of the prefecture (Ganzi) with the lowest value. 3) The dynamic evolution of carbon emissions in the planting industry across the five regions of Sichuan Province displayed different characteristics. The carbon emission intensity in the Chengdu Plain, south Sichuan, northeast Sichuan, Panzhihua-Xichang, and northwest Sichuan showed a decreasing trend, albeit with varying rates and extents of decline. Overall, the disparity in carbon emission intensity between these five regions gradually narrowed. 4) The projected trend suggests a steady decrease in both carbon emissions and intensity in the planting industry of Sichuan Province. It was estimated that by 2025 and 2030, the carbon emissions in the planting industry of Sichuan Province will decrease by approximately 68.72×10⁴ t and 137.84×10⁴ t, respectively, while the carbon emission intensity will decrease by 0.13 t·(10⁴ ¥)^–1 and 0.26 t·(10⁴¥)^–1. Based on these results, this study suggests that carbon emissions reduction in the planting industry of Sichuan Province mainly reduced the carbon emissions caused by chemical fertilizer input and rice field CH₄. Tailored reduction measures need to be adopted according to local conditions, and agricultural scientific and technological innovation and promotion should be strengthened to improve green and low-carbon development in the planting industry of Sichuan Province.