Wind disaster risk assessment for facility agriculture in Shandong Province

Wind disasters are meteorological disasters that have a significant impact on China’s facility agricultural production, and it is of great theoretical and practical significance to conduct research on wind disaster risk assessment for effective disaster prevention and mitigation in facility agriculture. This study explored a wind risk assessment method for facility agriculture based on natural disaster risk theory and its application in Shandong Province. Using extreme wind speed observation data of Shandong Province from 1991 to 2020, the fuzzy information distribution theory was used to calculate the probability of wind disaster occurrence at each level, and the hazard index of wind disasters was constructed by combining it with wind intensity. Based on GF-6 satellite image for 2020, an exposure index was constructed by extracting the areas of agricultural facilities in each district and county. Based on the wind resistance design standards of agricultural facilities, a vulnerability index was constructed using the maximum wind speed data. Based on wind damage information and wind speed observation data from 2010 to 2020, a hazard index of wind disaster was constructed to assess disaster prevention and mitigation capabilities. These four risk assessment elements were integrated to construct a wind-damage risk-assessment index for facility agriculture. The analysis results showed that wind hazard was influenced by topography and geomorphology, with the highest hazard in the central mountainous area and Shandong Peninsula. The distribution of high exposure areas was in line with the norms for land used for facility cultivation, and was mainly concentrated in the eastern part of central, northwestern, and southwestern Shandong. The distribution of vulnerability was essentially opposite to basic wind pressure, and medium-high value areas were mainly distributed in southern Shandong and the eastern parts of central Shandong, where plastic greenhouses and medium-sized arched plastic greenhouse were more concentrated. Areas with weaker capacity of disaster prevention and mitigation were mainly distributed in northwestern Shandong, southwestern Shandong, and western part of central Shandong, where disaster index was higher, the wind disaster warning capacity was weaker and the economy was less developed. The risk of wind disasters in facility agriculture was determined by integrating four factors: hazard, exposure, vulnerability, and capacity of disaster prevention and mitigation. The high-risk areas for wind disasters in facility agriculture were mainly in northwestern Shandong, where exposure was high; southwestern Shandong, where the vulnerability was high and capacity of disaster prevention and mitigation was weak; and central Shandong, where exposure and hazard were high and capacity of disaster prevention and mitigation was weak. The results of the wind disaster risk assessment in Shandong Province showed that the wind disaster risk index and the occurrence of wind disasters in each district and county were significantly consistent in space. The wind disaster risk assessment index for agricultural facilities constructed based on the natural disaster risk theory was reasonable and feasible, providing a reference for the scientific management of wind disaster risk and effective disaster prevention and mitigation in facility agriculture.