Evaluation of eco-environmental vulnerability in Jilin Province based on an AHP-PCA entropy weight model

Jilin Province is the main grain-producing area in China and has a considerable ecological function in Northeast China. Understanding the spatial and temporal characteristics of ecological vulnerability can aid effectively managing environmental change, guiding the rational use of land resources, and developing strategies for regional environmental protection. Based on the Sensitivity–Resilience–Pressure model of ecological vulnerability, a comprehensive evaluation indexes system for ecological vulnerability was established from the perspectives of human activities and natural environment in Jilin Province using meteorological, remote sensing, and statistical data. Thereafter, an entropy weight model constructed by using an analytic hierarchy process and principal component analysis was employed to analyze the geospatial and temporal dynamics of ecological vulnerability from 2000 to 2020 in the study area. Spatial autocorrelation analysis was used to probe spatial relationships between the different ecological vulnerability levels. The results revealed that 1) the overall environment was suitable with a light vulnerability level and below in the study area; however, ecological vulnerability varied among different regions and increased gradually from east to west. High vulnerability areas were mainly distributed in the western region, characterized by less rainfall and lower vegetation cover, and displayed a considerable global spatial autocorrelation with high-high aggregation. Potentially vulnerable areas were concentrated in the mountainous regions of eastern Jilin Province. 2) The ecological vulnerability index was divided into five levels as potential, slight, light, moderate and heavy. The area proportion was varied significantly among different levels. Taking 2020 as an example, the proportion in descending order is light>moderate>slight>potential>heavy, moreover, the area of light and below vulnerable area accounts for about 67.9%, indicating that Jilin Province is at a medium level of vulnerability in the whole. 3) Temporally, the vulnerability of the ecological environment in Jilin Province improved from 2000 to 2020. Compared to 2000, the proportions of heavyly and slightly vulnerable areas in 2020 decreased by 2.78% and 9.20%, respectively; whereas the proportions of light and moderately vulnerable areas in 2020 increased by 7.45% and 5.24%, respectively. The potentially vulnerable areas in 2020 were the same as those in 2000. 4) The value of Moran’s I index increased from 0.2335 to 0.3841 from 2000 to 2020, implying that spatial agglomeration was more pronounced, and high-high aggregation was distributed in the western region of the study area, whereas low-low aggregation was concentrated in the eastern region of Jilin Province. Relevant suggestions for environmental protection were proposed based on vulnerability assessments and impact factors. Existing ecological protection strategies should be continued in zones with potential and slight vulnerabilities. Zones with light and moderate vulnerability should prioritize black soil protection to ensure reasonable development of agricultural land resources. For heavyly vulnerable zones, investment in environmental protection should increase.ince. Relevant suggestions for environmental protection were proposed based on vulnerability assessments and impact factors. Existing ecological protection strategies should be continued in zones with potential and slight vulnerabilities. Zones with light and moderate vulnerability should prioritize black soil protection to ensure reasonable development of agricultural land resources. For heavyly vulnerable zones, investment in environmental protection should increase.