Spatial and temporal evolution of the development of new quality productivity of agricultural and obstacles to further development

New quality productivity is predicted to become a new engine for driving China’s future economic development, consequently, cultivating new quality productivity in agricultural and rural areas will not only contribute to the growth of the rural economy but also play an important role in promoting the process of agricultural modernization. In this study, we developed an evaluation index system of new quality productivity in agriculture using panel based on data obtained for 30 provinces (cities, autonomous regions) in China (excluding Xizang, Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) from 2012 to 2022. Using longitudinal and transversal pulling grades, kernel density estimates, traditional and spatial Markov chain models, Dagum Gini coefficient measurement decomposition, and an obstacle degree model, we analyzed the levels of new quality productivity development in agriculture and found that these could be measured and identified using the following methods: the characteristics of spatial and temporal differentiation, regional differences, and obstacle factors. We found that the levels of new agricultural quality productivity development showed a steady upward trend during the examination period, and detected notable differences in the levels of development among the eastern, central, and western regions, and between the main food-producing regions and the non-food-producing regions. In terms of dimensions, green and digital productivity in agriculture were found to be in a more advanced state of development, and digital productivity showed strong growth during the study period. The level of development in each province was established to have certain spatial spillover effects, which had either a positive or negative influence on the development of neighboring provinces. The difference among the east, center, and west regions gradually emerged as the main sources of differences in the development of new agricultural quality productivity. Similarly, the criterion level of the differences among regions in the east, center and west have gradually emerged as the main sources of differences in the development of new quality agricultural productivity, scientific and technological productivity, and integration productivity in the criterion layer, whereas the number of rural digital bases and the degree of integration of primary and tertiary industries in the indicator layer were currently the main obstacles to the further development of new quality agricultural productivity.