Abstract: Base on simulating productive potential results of wheat, maize, millet, soybean and potato (or rice) on 28 sites of the Loess Plateau Region of China with DSSAT3 model, potential yield per hm² and its development rate of grain crop in 14 ecological districts are calculated. The results show that the Loess Plateau Region could realize regional grain self-sufficiency before the year of 2020, but it needs huge nvestment of materials and techniques. Moreover, the economic effect of grain production on arid hilly and highland region of Loess Plateau is low, the goal of grain production on Loess Plateau should be to realize grain self-sufficiency of rural people, and it shouldn't emphasize commercialgrain production and regional grain self-sufficiency. In order to prevent eco-environment deterioration and low economic benefit, the grain shortage of the Loess Plateau Region should be applied from grain market of domestic and oversea.