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中国种植业碳补偿率区域差异、动态演进及收敛性分析

伍国勇 陈莹 孙小钧

伍国勇, 陈莹, 孙小钧. 中国种植业碳补偿率区域差异、动态演进及收敛性分析[J]. 中国生态农业学报(中英文), 2021, 29(10): 1−12 doi: 10.13930/j.cnki.cjea.210225
引用本文: 伍国勇, 陈莹, 孙小钧. 中国种植业碳补偿率区域差异、动态演进及收敛性分析[J]. 中国生态农业学报(中英文), 2021, 29(10): 1−12 doi: 10.13930/j.cnki.cjea.210225
WU G Y, CHEN Y, SUN X J. Regional differences, dynamic evolution, and convergence of the carbon compensation rate of planting industry in China[J]. Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture, 2021, 29(10): 1−12 doi: 10.13930/j.cnki.cjea.210225
Citation: WU G Y, CHEN Y, SUN X J. Regional differences, dynamic evolution, and convergence of the carbon compensation rate of planting industry in China[J]. Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture, 2021, 29(10): 1−12 doi: 10.13930/j.cnki.cjea.210225

中国种植业碳补偿率区域差异、动态演进及收敛性分析

doi: 10.13930/j.cnki.cjea.210225
基金项目: 国家社会科学基金项目(18CSH036)和贵州大学一流学科建设项目(GNYL[2017]002)资助
详细信息
    作者简介:

    伍国勇, 主要研究方向为农业农村发展与生态经济问题。E-mail: wgyung@qq.com

    通讯作者:

    孙小钧, 主要研究方向为资源与环境经济。E-mail: 2281739924@qq.com

  • 中图分类号: F062.2; S19

Regional differences, dynamic evolution, and convergence of the carbon compensation rate of planting industry in China

Funds: This study was supported by the National Social Science Foundation of China (18CSH036) and the First Class Discipline Construction Project of Guizhou University (GNYL[2017]002)
More Information
  • 摘要: 农业碳排放阻碍绿色农业转型, 探索种植业碳补偿率区域差异、动态演进及收敛性, 可为低碳农业良性发展提供有益指导。本文同时考虑碳源和碳汇, 测算2002—2018年中国31省、市、自治区种植业碳补偿率, 采用Dagum基尼系数分解法考察地区差异, 采用非参数估计中的核密度估计动态演进过程, 借助σ收敛、绝对β收敛及条件β收敛检视收敛性特征。结果表明: 1)种植业碳补偿率整体相对差异扩大趋势明显。东部地区相对差异扩大, 中部地区和西部地区变化较小; 东—西部、东—中部地区之间增加, 中—西部地区之间减小; 地区间差距是造成种植业碳补偿率差异的主要原因。2)中国种植业碳补偿率整体呈逐年增大的变动态势, 碳补偿率高值省份有所增多, 省域种植业碳补偿率差异有先减后增的趋势。东部各省种植业碳补偿率在逐渐上升, 绝对差距有所减少, 从两极分化演变为单极化; 中部各省种植业碳补偿率在逐渐上升, 绝对差距有所减小; 西部各省种植业碳补偿率变化较为稳定。3)全国及东、西部地区的种植业碳补偿率不存在σ收敛, 而中部地区不甚明显; 全国、东、中及西部地区绝对和条件β收敛均显著。本文的结论强调, 中国种植业碳补偿率的区域异质性凸显, 其时序变化趋势总体上升; 省域间的“追赶效应”显现, 地区间碳补偿率增长的趋同态势明显。因此, 合理制定区域农业绿色发展策略, 积极发挥区域减排潜力是提高种植业碳补偿率的关键。
  • 图  1  2002—2018年中国种植业碳补偿率地区内基尼系数的变化趋势

    Figure  1.  Trends in the Gini coefficient within the region of carbon compensation rate of crops production in China from 2002 to 2018

    图  2  2002—2018年中国种植业碳补偿率地区间基尼系数变化趋势

    Figure  2.  Trends in interregional Gini coefficients of carbon compensation rate of crops production in China from 2002 to 2018

    图  3  2002—2018年种植业碳补偿率地区差距来源贡献率变化趋势

    Figure  3.  Trends in the contribution rate in sources of regional disparities of the planting industry from 2002 to 2018

    图  4  2002—2018年全国(a)及东部(b)、中部(c)、西部(d)地区种植业碳补偿率核密度变化

    Figure  4.  Changes of kernel density of carbon compensation rate of crops prodcution of the nation (a), and east (b), central (c), and west (d) regions of China from 2002 to 2018

    表  1  主要农作物碳吸收率、平均含水量、经济系数和单位碳吸收量

    Table  1.   Carbon absorption rates, average water contents, economic coefficients and carbon absorption rates of major crops

    作物种类
    Crop species
    主要农作物
    Main crop
    碳吸收率
    Carbon absorption rate
    平均含水率
    Average moisture content (%)
    经济系数
    Economic coefficient
    粮食作物
    Food crops
    水稻 Rice0.414120.45
    小麦 Wheat0.485120.40
    玉米 Corn0.471130.40
    高粱 Sorghum0.450130.35
    谷子 Millet0.450140.40
    薯类 Tubers0.423700.70
    豆类 Beans0.450130.34
    经济作物
    Grops
    棉花 Cotton0.450 80.10
    油菜籽 Rapeseed0.450100.25
    花生 Peanut0.450100.43
    甘蔗 Sugarcane0.450500.50
    甜菜 Beetroots0.407750.70
    烟草 Tobacco0.450850.55
    园艺作物
    Garden crops
    蔬菜 Vegetables0.450900.60
    瓜果 Fruits0.450900.70
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  2  2002—2018年中国省域种植业碳补偿率

    Table  2.   Carbon compensation rate of crops production in each province (city, autonomous region) of China from 2002 to 2018

    区域
    Region
    省份
    Province (city, autonomous region)
    年份 Year
    200220042006200820102012201420162018
    东部 East北京 Beijing5.565.516.687.286.987.385.705.734.80
    天津 Tianjin6.336.586.926.736.756.747.037.5611.37
    河北 Hebei6.505.505.836.806.957.457.548.269.08
    上海 Shanghai4.274.084.023.903.824.254.033.814.33
    江苏 Jiangsu8.708.849.079.259.059.209.409.309.83
    浙江 Zhejiang4.043.813.983.643.573.583.493.523.09
    辽宁 Liaoning7.608.688.268.337.328.306.808.139.19
    福建 Fujian4.314.304.123.913.994.074.164.133.55
    山东 Shandong6.627.417.708.288.158.458.628.9110.20
    广东 Guangdong7.887.348.057.327.558.058.108.177.78
    海南 Hainan7.608.127.036.785.335.925.534.524.16
    平均 Mean6.316.386.516.566.326.676.406.557.04
    中部 Central山西 Shanxi6.137.257.547.227.278.078.328.228.76
    吉林 Jilin11.2911.9112.7112.1711.2012.4612.5112.7512.82
    黑龙江 Heilongjiang7.407.246.838.088.569.139.499.0911.48
    安徽 Anhui7.877.788.168.288.078.478.648.9410.04
    江西 Jiangxi6.666.887.277.317.127.537.687.658.18
    河南 Henan9.029.1110.3210.7310.4710.5710.4510.7512.18
    湖北 Hubei7.077.707.837.797.808.008.238.028.69
    湖南 Hunan7.437.467.997.907.938.107.928.008.30
    平均 Mean7.868.178.588.698.559.049.169.1810.06
    西部 Weast内蒙古 Inner Mongolia6.306.366.677.477.017.817.947.339.55
    广西 Guangxi13.4313.7016.6719.3517.0917.9518.4117.0817.45
    重庆 Chongqing6.556.986.277.417.307.017.057.236.92
    四川 Sichuan7.908.027.318.058.188.188.308.488.98
    贵州 Guizhou6.196.676.806.296.095.685.695.725.39
    云南 Yunnan8.308.048.068.207.398.028.017.678.37
    西藏 Tibet5.215.165.124.834.153.793.463.263.49
    陕西 Shaanxi6.316.837.337.337.037.276.997.036.97
    甘肃 Gansu4.434.554.334.234.204.334.274.074.81
    青海 Qinghai5.455.695.186.295.715.425.034.784.71
    宁夏 Ningxia6.155.806.205.956.066.396.686.646.85
    新疆 Xinjiang8.278.338.329.198.969.978.828.529.71
    平均 Mean7.047.187.357.887.437.657.557.327.77
      鉴于数据的可获得性, 未包括港澳台地区。In view of the availability of the data, Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan are not included.
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  3  2002—2018年中国种植业碳补偿率基尼系数及其分解

    Table  3.   Gini coefficient and decomposition of carbon compensation rate of crops production of China from 2002 to 2018

    年份
    Year
    全国
    Nation
    地区内 Within the region地区间 Interregional贡献率 Contribution rate (%)
    东部
    East
    中部
    Central
    西部
    West
    东部—中部
    E-C
    东部—西部
    E-W
    中部—西部
    C-W
    地区内
    Within the region
    地区间
    Interregional
    超变密度
    Hypervariable density
    20020.1440.1360.1000.1540.1330.1500.17132.04532.10535.851
    20030.1470.1510.1000.1440.1450.1570.17931.60336.38032.017
    20040.1510.1570.0890.1540.1440.1600.15831.57034.58033.850
    20050.1510.1530.1020.1480.1500.1570.16531.33938.81829.843
    20060.1650.1480.1060.1830.1470.1710.17331.54335.13033.327
    20070.1770.1670.0940.2050.1520.1960.16632.35233.20734.441
    20080.1730.1520.0960.2060.1460.1880.16232.15034.44633.404
    20090.1680.1500.0830.2020.1390.1840.14432.06533.71934.216
    20100.1710.1560.0860.1990.1470.1850.16131.46937.53031.001
    20110.1820.1570.0890.2230.1470.1970.15031.63935.00333.359
    20120.1790.1550.0880.2200.1460.1950.14931.68335.68132.636
    20130.1890.1640.0940.2330.1540.2060.14931.77934.74133.480
    20140.1900.1680.0860.2240.1620.2030.14930.82639.83329.341
    20150.1900.1770.0900.2180.1660.2040.14730.76739.62729.606
    20160.1910.1800.0910.2180.1640.2060.16030.87237.04032.087
    20170.2170.2240.1110.2180.2030.2280.16029.70240.56629.732
    20180.2150.2330.0960.2270.1960.2360.15630.69334.78434.523
    均值 Mean0.1760.1660.0940.1990.1550.1900.15931.41736.07032.513
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  4  2002—2018年中国不同区域种植业碳补偿率σ收敛系数

    Table  4.   σ convergence coefficient of carbon compensation rate of crops production in different regions of China from 2002 to 2018

    年份 Year全国 Nation东部 East中部 Central西部 West
    20020.28050.25330.20690.3323
    20030.28050.28470.20760.2953
    20040.29070.28970.20230.3296
    20050.29830.28240.22620.3277
    20060.34120.27760.22920.4307
    20070.38320.31130.19380.4936
    20080.37670.29380.20540.4924
    20090.35440.28240.16660.4685
    20100.35070.29420.17460.4526
    20110.36470.29940.18800.4839
    20120.36330.29200.18490.4809
    20130.38070.30740.19910.5057
    20140.38340.30890.17760.5034
    20150.37310.32940.18330.4743
    20160.37460.33990.19010.4782
    20170.40340.42170.22130.4598
    20180.39680.43650.18540.4702
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  5  2002—2018年中国种植业碳补偿率绝对β收敛结果

    Table  5.   Absolutely β convergence results of carbon compensation rate of crops prodcution in China from 2002 to 2018

    变量 Variable全国 Nation东部 East中部 Central西部 West
    β −0.292***(−7.931)−0.140**(−2.449)−0.442***(−5.060)−0.400***(−6.252)
    (−2.449)(−5.060)(−6.252)
    常数项 Constant term 0.671***(9.335)0.319***(3.011)1.006***(5.599)0.927***(7.410)
    样本量 Sample size496176128192
    R20.03070.06480.17640.0568
      ***、**和*分别表示在P<1%、P<5%和P<10%水平上显著。括号内为t统计量。***, ** and * represent significance at the levels of P<1%, P<5%, and P<10%, respectively. Inside parentheses is the t statistic.
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  6  2002—2018年中国种植业碳补偿率条件β收敛结果

    Table  6.   Conditions β convergence results of crops prodcution in China from 2002 to 2018

    变量 Variable全国 Nation东部 East中部 Central西部 West
    β −0.413*** (−10.401)−0.409***(−5.813)−0.791***(−7.986)−0.445***(−6.496)
    农业财政支出 Agricultural financial expenditure 0.003(0.932)0.012**(2.193)−0.001(−0.206)−0.000(−0.051)
    城镇化率 Urbanization rate −0.000(−0.201)0.003(1.574)0.000(0.040)−0.002(−0.700)
    产业结构 Industrial structure 0.009***(3.395)0.007(1.015)0.011***(2.417)0.003(0.351)
    农业机械化 Agriculture mechanization 0.012(0.958)0.027(0.582)0.075***(3.387)0.016(0.786)
    农户文化程度 Farmer education level −0.112(−0.933)0.089(0.367)−0.010(−0.036)−0.058 (−0.285)
    劳动力非农转移 Non-agricultural transfer of labor force −0.047* (−1.669)−0.134** (−2.467)−0.014(−0.484)−0.051 (−0.602)
    农业经营规模 Agricultural operation scale 0.247***(5.381)0.399***(6.229)0.078(0.619)0.125(1.000)
    农业经济发展水平 Agricultural economic development−0.096** (−2.476)−0.280***(−3.841)0.076(0.988)0.029(0.289)
    常数项 Constant term 1.908***(5.236)3.037***(3.966)0.552(0.760)1.306(1.444)
    样本量 Sample size496176128192
    R20.01930.00800.10680.0440
      ***、**和*分别表示在P<1%、P<5%和P<10%水平上显著。括号内为 t 统计量。***, ** and * represent significance at the levels of P<1%, P<5%, and P<10%, respectively. Inside parentheses is the t statistic.
    下载: 导出CSV
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  • 收稿日期:  2021-04-14
  • 录用日期:  2021-05-27
  • 网络出版日期:  2021-06-22

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