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城镇化对种植业面源污染影响的中介效应分析

罗海平 何志文 胡学英

罗海平, 何志文, 胡学英. 城镇化对种植业面源污染影响的中介效应分析[J]. 中国生态农业学报(中英文), 2021, 29(9): 1625−1635 doi: 10.13930/j.cnki.cjea.210033
引用本文: 罗海平, 何志文, 胡学英. 城镇化对种植业面源污染影响的中介效应分析[J]. 中国生态农业学报(中英文), 2021, 29(9): 1625−1635 doi: 10.13930/j.cnki.cjea.210033
LUO H P, HE Z W, HU X Y. Analysis of the mediation effect of urbanization on non-point source pollution from the planting industry[J]. Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture, 2021, 29(9): 1625−1635 doi: 10.13930/j.cnki.cjea.210033
Citation: LUO H P, HE Z W, HU X Y. Analysis of the mediation effect of urbanization on non-point source pollution from the planting industry[J]. Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture, 2021, 29(9): 1625−1635 doi: 10.13930/j.cnki.cjea.210033

城镇化对种植业面源污染影响的中介效应分析

doi: 10.13930/j.cnki.cjea.210033
基金项目: 江西省社会科学基金项目(20MJ02, 20YJ06)、江西省高校人文社会科学重点研究基地项目(JD20111)和中央党校重点调研课题(2021DXXTZDDYKT047)资助
详细信息
    作者简介:

    罗海平, 主要研究方向为生态安全。E-mail: lhp6322@126.com

    通讯作者:

    胡学英, 主要研究方向为农村经济。E-mail: 631098728@qq.com

  • 中图分类号: F323.22

Analysis of the mediation effect of urbanization on non-point source pollution from the planting industry

Funds: This study was supported by the Social Science Foundation of Jiangxi Province (20MJ02, 20YJ06), the Humanities and Social Science Key Research Base Project of Universities of Jiangxi Province (JD20111) and the Key Project of Party School of the Central Committee of CPC (2021DXXTZDDYKT047)
More Information
  • 摘要: 在当前城镇化持续推进的背景下, 探究我国城镇化对化肥面源污染的作用机制, 对缓解我国生态压力, 促进农业绿色高质量发展具有重要现实意义。鉴于此, 本文基于2008—2018年城镇化和化肥施用量等省际面板数据, 运用单元调查评估法测算2008—2018年31个省(市、自治区)化肥面源污染物排放总量及排放强度, 再运用中介效应模型探究城镇化对化肥面源污染的影响机制。结果表明: 1) 2008—2018年我国化肥面源污染排放呈现先增后降的倒“U”型特征, 以2015年为拐点, 到研究期末排放总量及强度均降至该时期最低水平, 分别为516万t和37.65 kg·hm−2。2)从全国层面看, 城镇化会通过技术进步、劳动力转移、农地禀赋对化肥面源污染产生中介影响, 其中农地禀赋中介效应绝对值最大(0.0092), 劳动力与技术进步趋近, 分别为0.0040和0.0033。3)城镇化对化肥面源污染的影响机制存在显著的空间异质性。从技术进步看, 粮食主销区的中介效应绝对值最大(0.0160), 粮食主产区次之(0.0118), 粮食产销平衡区无显著中介效应; 从劳动力看, 仅粮食主产区存在显著中介效应(0.0538); 从农地禀赋看, 粮食主销区的中介效应绝对值最大(0.0126), 粮食产销平衡区次之(0.0095), 粮食主产区最小(0.0055), 其中粮食产销平衡区的中介效应方向与其他地区相反。为此, 在粮食主销区应重点加强耕地保护, 加快制定跨区协作的“占补平衡”制度, 在粮食主产区应积极引导优质劳动力回流农业部门, 在粮食平衡区应加快绿色农业技术与管理模式的应用。
  • 图  1  城镇化对化肥面源污染的作用机制

    Figure  1.  Mechanism of effects of urbanization on non-point source pollution of fertilizer

    表  1  各省(市、自治区)化肥面源污染排放总量及排放强度

    Table  1.   Total emissions and emission intensity of fertilizers of non-point source pollution in various province (cities, autonomous regions)

    省(市、自治区)
    Province (city, autonomous region)
    排放总量 Total emissions ($ \times $104 t)排放强度 Emission intensity (kg·hm−2)
    200820152018200820152018
    北京 Beijing2.681.971.3083.18113.47125.30
    天津 Tianjin4.513.812.56100.9981.2059.68
    河北 Hebei37.7038.5534.1243.2744.1141.62
    山西 Shanxi5.795.925.2215.5315.7114.68
    内蒙古 Inner Mongolia18.1625.5023.5126.4733.7026.64
    辽宁 Liaoning16.2117.7816.0743.6342.1438.19
    吉林 Jilin18.7524.0022.5637.5242.2637.10
    黑龙 Heilongjiang10.0413.8213.278.3011.249.04
    上海 Shanghai3.101.901.5379.7955.9054.26
    江苏 Jiangsu65.7560.4755.2087.5578.0773.40
    浙江 Zhejiang18.3816.6114.6074.0472.5073.81
    安徽 Anhui16.7917.7916.3018.7019.8818.58
    福建 Fujian12.3112.6411.2755.4454.2371.42
    江西 Jiangxi6.606.865.7912.3812.3010.42
    山东 Shandong51.3348.8243.6447.6844.2839.40
    河南 Henan35.8340.3837.8125.3327.9925.58
    湖北 Hubei38.3637.5132.2752.5647.1740.57
    湖南 Hunan25.5526.2025.1233.8230.0630.97
    广东 Guangdong36.3739.7334.5082.5883.0380.62
    广西 Guangxi10.2711.7211.6318.0219.1119.47
    海南 Hainan2.302.482.3928.3429.3933.48
    重庆 Chongqing5.916.245.8718.3817.4517.52
    四川 Sichuan15.5915.6014.3616.5216.0914.94
    贵州 Guizhou10.8212.8310.3523.4223.1518.90
    云南 Yunnan21.3227.7525.6235.2138.6237.18
    西藏 Tibet0.260.310.2610.8612.409.58
    陕西 Shaanxi20.5425.9125.1949.3060.4761.58
    甘肃 Gansu4.935.544.6412.7413.0912.29
    青海 Qinghai0.490.600.509.5810.678.92
    宁夏 Ningxia4.294.664.4435.4236.8838.12
    新疆 Xinjiang9.0414.1514.4420.1424.5823.79
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  2  城镇化对化肥面源污染影响的回归结果

    Table  2.   Regression results of the impact of urbanization on fertilizer non-point source pollution

    解释变量 Explanatory variable模型1 Model 1模型2 Model 2模型3 Model 3模型4 Model 4
    城镇化 Urbanization0.0024(0.65)0.0057*(2.17)0.0065*(1.82)0.0003(0.10)
    技术进步 Technological progress−0.3096***(−17.97)
    农业劳动力 Agricultural labor0.4603***(5.80)
    农地禀赋 Farmland endowment0.3984***(8.72)
    控制变量 Control variableYESYESYESYES
    常数项 Constant−3.0716***(−5.26)−3.6207***(−14.42)−3.1423***(−4.8)−4.5802***(−12.40)
    中介效应 Mediation effect−0.0033−0.0040−0.0092
    个体/时间固定效应 Individual/time fixed effectYESYESYESYES
    拟合优度 Goodness of fit (R2)0.55260.76540.58150.6239
    Wald chi24086.80***6364.05***3121.08***5363.68***
    Pesaran’s test0.22270.10060.13330.0964
      括号中的数字为t值, ***、**和*分别表示在P<1%、P<5%和P<10%水平显著; 模型1为直接效应模型, 模型2为技术进步中介效应模型, 模型3为劳动力中介效应模型, 模型4为农地禀赋中介效应模型。The numbers in parentheses are t-values. ***, **, and * indicate significant at P<1%, P<5%, and P<10% levels, respectively. Model 1 is a direct effect model. Model 2 is a mediating effect model of technological progress. Model 3 is a labor force mediating effect model. Model 4 is a farmland endowment mediating effect model.
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  3  三大粮食功能区城镇化对化肥面源污染的中介效应测算结果

    Table  3.   Calculation results of the intermediary effect of urbanization on fertilizer non-point source pollution in the three major food functional areas

    解释变量
    Explanatory variable
    粮食主产区
    Main grain-producing area
    粮食主销区
    Main grain-consuming area
    粮食平衡区
    Grain-balance area
    估计参数
    Estimated parameter
    中介效应
    Mediation effect
    估计参数
    Estimated parameter
    中介效应
    Mediation effect
    估计参数
    Estimated parameter
    中介效应
    Mediation effect
    技术进步
    Technological progress
    −0.3608***
    (−9.69)
    −0.0118−0.2417***
    (−13.60)
    −0.0160−0.0056
    (−0.05)
    不显著
    Not obvious
    农业劳动力
    Agricultural labor
    0.5074***
    (5.71)
    −0.05380.0390
    (0.90)
    不显著
    Not obvious
    0.1271
    (1.43)
    不显著
    Not obvious
    农地禀赋
    Farmland endowment
    0.4396***
    (3.31)
    −0.00550.8963***
    (7.84)
    −0.0126−0.4051***
    (−5.28)
    0.0095
      括号中的数字为t值, ***、**和*分别表示在P<1%、P<5%和P<10%水平显著。The numbers in parentheses are t-values, and ***, ** and * indicate significant at P<1%, P<5% and P<10% levels, respectively.
    下载: 导出CSV
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出版历程
  • 收稿日期:  2021-01-16
  • 录用日期:  2021-04-19
  • 网络出版日期:  2021-07-13
  • 刊出日期:  2021-09-06

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