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四川省水稻综合气象灾害风险区划

邓国卫 卿清涛 徐金霞 孙俊

邓国卫, 卿清涛, 徐金霞, 孙俊. 四川省水稻综合气象灾害风险区划[J]. 中国生态农业学报(中英文), 2020, 28(5): 621-630. doi: 10.13930/j.cnki.cjea.190577
引用本文: 邓国卫, 卿清涛, 徐金霞, 孙俊. 四川省水稻综合气象灾害风险区划[J]. 中国生态农业学报(中英文), 2020, 28(5): 621-630. doi: 10.13930/j.cnki.cjea.190577
DENG Guowei, QING Qingtao, XU Jinxia, SUN Jun. Integrated meteorological disaster risk regionalization of rice in Sichuan Province[J]. Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture, 2020, 28(5): 621-630. doi: 10.13930/j.cnki.cjea.190577
Citation: DENG Guowei, QING Qingtao, XU Jinxia, SUN Jun. Integrated meteorological disaster risk regionalization of rice in Sichuan Province[J]. Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture, 2020, 28(5): 621-630. doi: 10.13930/j.cnki.cjea.190577

四川省水稻综合气象灾害风险区划

doi: 10.13930/j.cnki.cjea.190577
基金项目: 

四川省科技厅应用基础研究项目 2018JY0643

四川省科技厅应用基础研究项目 2018JY0341

高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室科技发展基金项目 2018-key-05-01

详细信息
    作者简介:

    邓国卫, 主要从事气象灾害风险与气候资源评估研究。E-mail:z20041170019@163.com

    通讯作者:

    卿清涛, 主要从事应用气象、气候风险区划的研究。E-mail:qingqt79531@foxmail.com

  • 中图分类号: S166;P49

Integrated meteorological disaster risk regionalization of rice in Sichuan Province

Funds: 

the Basic Research Project of Science and Technology Program of Sichuan 2018JY0643

the Basic Research Project of Science and Technology Program of Sichuan 2018JY0341

the Fund of the Key Laboratory of Heavy Rain and Drought-Flood Disasters in Plateau and Basin of Sichuan Province 2018-key-05-01

More Information
  • 摘要: 本文利用1981—2012年四川省82县的水稻单产资料,采用HP滤波法,进行水稻气象产量分离,分歉收年和成灾年两个年型,研究四川省水稻单产平均减产率、减产率变异系数和不同等级减产率风险概率的空间分布特征,并基于成灾年风险区划指标,开展四川省水稻综合气象灾害风险区划。结果表明:HP滤波法可用于四川省水稻气象产量分离,四川省水稻气象产量具有显著的准4 a、7 a周期振荡特征。平均减产率从西南向东北方向呈现“高-低-高”分布特征,80%以上县歉收年平均减产率介于2%~7%,成灾年平均减产率介于6%~15%。各县歉收年减产率变异系数介于0.6~2.2,成灾年减产率变异系数介于0~1.2;减产率变异系数相对高值区位于西南山地西部、盆地南部和盆地北部山地。各级减产率风险概率大值区主要集中于广元和巴中地区,还包括盐亭、古蔺、盐源、越西等县。四川省水稻综合气象灾害高风险区主要分布于盆地北部、盆地南部和西南山地西部等山区,中等风险区主要分布于盆地丘陵区及盆周低山区,低风险区主要分布于盆地平原、浅丘区和凉山州中东部。风险区划结果与四川省气象灾害分布和水稻农业气象灾害分布的研究成果相吻合,可为四川省水稻防灾减灾提供科学依据和重要参考。
  • 图  1  研究区域分布(a)及四川省各地高程(b)

    Figure  1.  Overview of the study area (a) and elevation of all region of Sichuan Provinces (b)

    图  2  四川省1981—2012年水稻气象产量小波变换方差(a)和小波变换(b) (图b中粗实线为影响锥曲线, 线上部为受边界影响区域)

    Figure  2.  Variance (a) and wavelet transform (b) of the meteorological yield of rice in Sichuan Province from 1981 to 2012 (in the figure b, the thick and solid line is the affected cone curve, the part over the line is affected by the boundary)

    图  3  四川省1981—2012年歉收年(a)和成灾年(b)的水稻平均减产率分布

    Figure  3.  Distribution of average yield reduction rates of rice in lean years (a) and disaster years (b) in Sichuan Province from 1981 to 2012

    图  4  四川省1981—2012年歉收年(a)和成灾年(b)水稻减产率变异系数

    Figure  4.  Variation coefficients of yield reduction rates of rice in lean years (a) and disaster years (b) in Sichuan Province from 1981 to 2012

    图  5  四川省水稻不同减产风险概率的空间分布

    Figure  5.  Distribution of probabilities of different yield reduction rates of rice in Sichuan Province

    图  6  四川省水稻综合气象灾害风险区划

    Figure  6.  Risk zoning of integrated meteorological disaster of rice in Sichuan Province

    表  1  四川省水稻综合气象灾害风险分区减产特征

    Table  1.   Characteristics of rice yield reduction of different zones of integrated meteorological disaster risk in Sichuan Province

    风险区
    Risk zone
    平均减产率
    Average yield reduction rate (%)
    风险概率
    Risk probability (%)
    分布县数
    Number of
    counties
    分布地区
    Distribution region
    歉收年
    Lean years
    成灾年
    Disaster years
    减产率≥5%
    Yield reduction rate≥5%
    减产率≥10%
    Yield reduction rate≥10%
    低风险区Low-risk
    area
    4.4 10.1 14.2 2.8 75 成都、眉山、雅安北部、南充西部、乐山东北部、凉山州中东部等地区大部分县
    Most counties in Chengdu, Meishan, North Ya’an, West Nanchong, Northeast Leshan, East-Central Liangshan, etc
    中等风险区
    Medium-risk area
    5.5 13.0 20.7 6.1 52 德阳、绵阳、遂宁、达州、广安、泸州、乐山南部等区域大部分县
    Most counties in Deyang, Mianyang, Suining, Dazhou, Guang’an, Luzhou, South Leshan, etc
    高风险区
    High-risk
    area
    8.5 19.3 35.4 19.0 24 巴中各县、广元中东部各县、宜宾南部各县以及江油、盐亭、万源、荥经、古蔺、越西、美姑、盐源、盐边
    Counties in Bazhong, East-Central Guangyuan and South Yibin, as well as counties with Jiangyou, Yanting, Wanyuan, Yingjing, Gulin, Yuexi, Meigu, Yanyuan, Yanbian
    下载: 导出CSV
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  • 收稿日期:  2019-08-02
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