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摘要: 养殖业是中国农业农村经济的支柱产业，也是最重要的农业污染源。在环保政策高压和产业政策引导下，中国南方传统养猪大省生猪出栏减量较大，北方逐步承接，形成“南猪北养”之势。“南猪北养”是中国农业整体北移的一个缩影，同时在饲料供给、资源环境禀赋等方面有其合理性。但同时也必须认识到，“南猪北养”格局形成的同时也存在着巨大的环境风险。本研究基于此，分析了现有生猪养殖布局调整可能会带来的潜在环境风险以及由此导致的环境不公正。一是北方地区的气候条件和耕作制度不利于养殖粪便的资源化；二是对北方水资源供给和水环境质量带来较大的潜在风险；三是养殖转移后有可能导致部分区域养殖密度过大，超出土地承载，对局部生态环境造成威胁。因此，为了避免以牺牲东北的冰天雪地为代价保护南方的绿水青山，应当建立和完善跨区域的生态补偿机制，降低南北资源环境的不公平程度；合理利用养殖区域空间，科学布局，避免局部养殖过密；落实和创设种养结合的约束和激励政策；严格落实对承接区养殖场的环保要求，并在此基础上创新污染减排方式。Abstract: Livestock breeding is not only a pillar industry of China's agricultural and rural economy, but also the most important source of agricultural pollution. Under the influence of environmental protection and industrial policies, pig husbandry in the southern provinces of China has largely reduced in recent years. These provinces were originally the traditional pig husbandry regions. Meanwhile, the pig husbandry is booming in the northern provinces of China. This relocation from the southern to the northern part of China is just a microcosm of the transition in Chinese agriculture. Although there is some rationality based on the availability of resources and environmental characteristics, there are still huge environmental risks associated with the process of pig husbandry relocation. Based on this argument, this study analyzed the potential environmental risks and environmental injustice caused by the current relocation of pig husbandry and the following conclusions were drawn. Firstly, the climatic conditions and farming system in the northern part of China are not suitable for resource utilization of cultured manure. Secondly, it may pose a huge potential risk to the water quality and water supply in the area. Moreover, the breeding density in some areas might be too large, which is beyond the carrying capacity of the land and threatens the local ecological environment. The ecological environment of Northeast China is as important as that of South China. To avoid damaging the environment in the northern part of China, we should establish and optimize an inter-regional ecological compensation mechanism to reduce the environmental unfairness between northern and southern China. The region of pig breeding should also be scientifically optimized to avoid uneven distribution. Moreover, farming and pig husbandry should be combined organically by an accompanying reward and punishment policy. Finally, strict environmental protection policies must be implemented, and innovative pollution reduction methods should also be introduced.
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图 1 2014—2016年中国31个省(市、自治区)生猪出栏累计变幅(a)和减猪量贡献百分比(b)
以上结果为2016年与2014年比较, 数据来源参见文献[4]。
Figure 1. Change rate of the amount of pig slaughter (a) and percentage of pig production reduction contribution (b) in 31 provinces (cities, autonomous region) of China
The data of figures are comparison between 2016 and 2014. The data refer to reference [4].
图 2 2007—2017年浙江省生猪出栏和消费量对比
国家统计局公开的各省生猪消费量与出栏量差距较大, 经过分析, 认为消费数据中应该没有包括外出就餐的生猪消费量。文中的消费量数据按照全国总出栏量和总消费量基本平衡、各省(除特殊省份)人均猪肉消费习惯基本相似进行估算, 经验证大致符合实际情况。
Figure 2. Comparison of pig slaughter and consumption in Zhejiang Province from 2007 to 2017
There is a big gap between the consumption of live pigs and the amount of pig slaughter according to the data published by National Bureau of Statistics. After analysis, it is concluded that the consumption data do not include pork consumed in restaurants. The consumption data estimates in Figure 2 and Figure 3 are based on two assumptions: first, the total amount of pig slaughter and consumption in China are basically balanced; second, the pork consumption habits in all provinces are similar except for some special provinces. It has been proved that the estimated data are basically in line with the actual situation.
图 3 2007—2017年黑龙江省生猪出栏和消费量对比
Figure 3. Comparison of pig slaughter and consumption in Heilongjiang Province from 2007 to 2017
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