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四川省水稻高温热害风险及灾损评估

陈超 庞艳梅 刘佳

陈超, 庞艳梅, 刘佳. 四川省水稻高温热害风险及灾损评估[J]. 中国生态农业学报(中英文), 2019, 27(4): 554-562. doi: 10.13930/j.cnki.cjea.180745
引用本文: 陈超, 庞艳梅, 刘佳. 四川省水稻高温热害风险及灾损评估[J]. 中国生态农业学报(中英文), 2019, 27(4): 554-562. doi: 10.13930/j.cnki.cjea.180745
CHEN Chao, PANG Yanmei, LIU Jia. Assessment of risk and yield loss of rice in Sichuan Province due to heat stress[J]. Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture, 2019, 27(4): 554-562. doi: 10.13930/j.cnki.cjea.180745
Citation: CHEN Chao, PANG Yanmei, LIU Jia. Assessment of risk and yield loss of rice in Sichuan Province due to heat stress[J]. Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture, 2019, 27(4): 554-562. doi: 10.13930/j.cnki.cjea.180745

四川省水稻高温热害风险及灾损评估

doi: 10.13930/j.cnki.cjea.180745
基金项目: 

国家重点研发计划“粮食丰产增效科技创新”重点专项 2017YFD0300400

高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室科技发展基金项目 2018-key-05-01

中国气象局西南区域重大科研业务项目 2014-08

中国气象局成都高原气象研究所基本科研费业务项目 BROP201817

详细信息
    作者简介:

    陈超, 主要从事气候变化影响评价、生物气候模型与信息系统的研究。E-mail:chenchao16306@sina.com

    通讯作者:

    庞艳梅, 主要从事气候变化对农业的影响评估研究。E-mail:pangyanm@126.com

  • 中图分类号: S166

Assessment of risk and yield loss of rice in Sichuan Province due to heat stress

Funds: 

the Key Special Project of National Key Research and Development Program of China "Food Production Enhancement and Efficiency Innovation" 2017YFD0300400

the Science and Technology Development Project of Sichuan Province Key Laboratory of Heavy Rain and Drought-Flood Disasters in Plateau and Basin 2018-key-05-01

the Southwest Regional Major Scientific and Operational Projects of China Meteorological Administration 2014-08

the Basic Business Project of Institute of Plateau Meteorology, Chinese Meteorological Administration BROP201817

More Information
  • 摘要: 高温热害是四川省最主要的农业气象灾害之一,研究高温热害对水稻的影响对于四川省农业可持续发展、保障水稻的安全生产具有重要意义。本文以1981—2015年四川省84个气象台站的逐日气象资料、农业气象观测站水稻生育期资料和县级水稻产量资料为基础,利用水稻高温热害指数,构建四川省水稻关键生育期和全生育期综合高温热害风险模型;分离水稻气象产量,建立高温热害影响下水稻气象产量与高温热害指数间的统计模型,开展1981—2015年四川省水稻高温热害风险和灾损评估。研究结果表明:四川省水稻抽穗扬花期,高温热害较高风险区和高风险区主要集中在盆地东北大部和盆地南部的个别地区,其中达州、广安和泸州的部分地区为高风险区。而低风险区主要分布在盆地西部、南部和川西南的大部地区。灌浆结实期,水稻高温热害较高风险区和高风险区主要集中在盆地东北和盆地南部的大部分地区,其中泸州大部、南充和宜宾的个别地区为高风险区。而低风险区主要分布在盆地北部、西部和川西南的大部地区。水稻全生育阶段高温热害较高风险区和高风险区主要集中在盆地东北和盆地南部的大部分地区,其中泸州、南充和达州的部分地区为高风险区。而低风险区主要分布在盆地北部、西部和川西南的大部地区。构建的水稻高温热害灾损评估模型简单实用,验证结果表明高温热害年水稻统计产量与模拟产量间的相对误差绝对值都小于1.5%,建立的模型能反映四川省高温热害对水稻产量的影响,同时能够较好地评估高温热害下四川省水稻的产量损失。进一步的灾损评估结果表明,高温热害危害下代表站点水稻的减产率为5.6%~10.2%。
  • 图  1  四川省水稻种植区划及气象台站的分布

    Figure  1.  Regionalization of the rice-growing areas and meteorological stations in Sichuan Province

    图  2  四川省水稻抽穗扬花期(a)、灌浆结实期(b)和全生育期(c)高温热害风险分布

    Figure  2.  Risk of heat stress of rice during heading-flowering stage (a), filling-harvest stage (b) and whole growth period (c) in Sichuan Province

    表  1  四川省水稻种植区不同区域抽穗扬花期和灌浆结实期的划分

    Table  1.   Division of heading-flowing and filling-harvest stages in different regions of rice-growing area in Sichuan Province

    区域名称
    Region name
    抽穗—扬花期(月-日)
    Heading-flowering (month-day)
    灌浆—结实期(月-日)
    Filling-harvest (month-day)
    盆西平丘区Plain and hill areas of western basin 08-01—08-10 08-11—09-11
    盆中浅丘区Hilly area of central basin 07-21—07-31 08-01—09-11
    盆南丘陵区Hilly area of southern basin 07-01—07-10 07-11—08-10
    盆东平行岭谷区Equal ridge-valley region of eastern basin 08-01—08-10 08-11—08-31
    盆周边缘山地区Mountain area around basin 08-11—08-20 08-21—09-30
    川西南山地区Southwest Sichuan 08-01—08-10 08-11—09-10
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  2  四川省水稻不同生育阶段高温热害指数

    Table  2.   Heat stress index of rice at different developmental stages in Sichuan Province

    高温热害等级
    Level of heat stress
    抽穗开花期
    Heading-flowering stage
    灌浆结实期
    Filling-harvest stage
    全生育期
    Whole growth period
    高温热害强度
    Intensity of heat damage
    轻度Mild 0≤IHSf < 2.0 0≤GHSf < 2.0 0≤CHSf < 2.0 1
    中度Moderate 2.0≤IHSf < 4.0 2.0≤GHSf < 6.0 2.0≤CHSf < 5.0 2
    重度Severe 4.0≤IHSf 6.0≤GHSf 5.0≤CHSf 3
    IHSfGHSfCHSf分别为抽穗开花期、灌浆结实期、全生育期综合高温热害指数。IHSf, GHSf and CHSf are heat stress indexes of rice at heading-flowering stage, filling-harvest stage and whole growth season.
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  3  四川省水稻不同生育阶段高温热害不同风险等级的风险指数

    Table  3.   Risk indexes of different risk levels of heat stress of rice at different developmental stages in Sichuan Province

    生育阶段
    Developmental stage
    风险等级Risk level
    低风险区Low risk 中风险区Medium risk 较高风险区Sub-high risk 高风险区High risk
    抽穗扬花期Heading-flowering stage ≤0.12 0.12~0.25 0.25~0.50 ≥0.50
    灌浆结实期Filling-harvest stage ≤0.25 0.25~0.50 0.50~0.80 ≥0.80
    全生育期Whole growth period ≤0.18 0.18~0.36 0.36~0.54 ≥0.54
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  4  四川省水稻种植区不同区域水稻趋势产量的统计模型

    Table  4.   Statistical models of rice trend yield in different regions of rice-growing area in Sichuan Province

    区域名称
    Region name
    统计模型
    Statistical model
    盆西平丘区Plain and hill areas of western basin Yi=0.219t3-12.26t2+222.61t+6 179.2 (R2=0.279, P < 0.01)
    盆中浅丘区Hilly area of central basin Yi=0.201t3-12.39t2+217.73t+6 298.9 (R2=0.322, P < 0.01)
    盆南丘陵区Hilly area of southern basin Yi=0.064t3-5.93t3+228.25t+4 523.2 (R2=0.925, P < 0.01)
    盆东平行岭谷区Equal ridge-valley region of eastern basin Yi=0.112t3-10.45t2+278.13t+5 178.1 (R2=0.636, P < 0.01)
    盆周边缘山地区Mountain area around basin Yi=0.459t3-25.01t2+459.16t+4 602.7 (R2=0.833, P < 0.01)
    川西南山地区Southwest Sichuan Yi=0.036t3-4.41t2+161.61t+5 446.1 (R2=0.827, P < 0.01)
    Yi为趋势产量(kg·hm-2); t为年序(1981年, t=1); P是显著性检验的概率。Yi is the trend yield of rice (kg·hm-2). t is the order of the year (for 1981, t=1). P is probability.
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  5  四川省水稻种植区不同区域水稻气象产量与高温热害指数关系的统计模型

    Table  5.   Statistical models for relationship between rice meteorological yield and heat stress index in different regions of rice-growing area in Sichuan Province

    区域名称
    Region name
    统计模型
    Statistical model
    盆西平丘区Plain and hill areas of western basin Ys=29.705+21.659PHSf-187.316QHSf (P=0.048)
    盆中浅丘区Hilly area of central basin Ys=57.657+5.531PHSf-339.921QHSf (P=0.023)
    盆南丘陵区Hilly area of southern basin Ys=-1.825-198.307PHSf+96.953QHSf (P=0.034)
    盆东平行岭谷区Equal ridge-valley region of eastern basin Ys=120.456-402.165PHSf-105.568QHSf (P=0.027)
    盆周边缘山地区Mountain area around basin Ys=43.242-200.706PHSf+140.014QHSf (P=0.046)
    川西南山地区Southwest Sichuan Ys=-28.175+131.314PHSf+29.165QHSf (P=0.039)
    Ys为气象产量(kg·hm-2); PHSf为标准化后的抽穗扬花期高温热害指数; QHSf为标准化后的灌浆结实期高温热害指数; P是显著性检验的概率。Ys is the meteorological yield of rice (kg·hm-2). PHSf is the standardized heat stress index at heading-flowering stage. QHSf is the standardized heat stress index at filling-harvest stage. P is probability.
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  6  四川省典型站点高温热害年水稻统计产量与模拟产量的比较

    Table  6.   Comparison of statistical and simulated annual yield of rice in years with heat stress in typical station of Sichuan Province

    站点
    Station
    高温热害年
    Year of heat stress
    统计产量
    Statistical yield (kg·hm-2)
    模拟产量
    Simulated yield (kg·hm-2)
    相对误差绝对值
    Absolute relative error (%)
    雁江Yanjiang 1994 6 783 6 846 0.9
    营山Yingshan 2001 7 449 7 463 0.2
    隆昌Longchang 2006 7 356 7 421 0.9
    盐亭Yanting 2006 6 510 6 605 1.3
    大竹Dazhu 2007 6 874 6 980 1.5
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  7  四川省典型站点高温热害年水稻的灾损评估

    Table  7.   Assessment on yield loss of rice caused by heat stress in typical stations of Sichuan Province

    站点
    Station
    高温热害年
    Year of heat
    stress
    气象产量
    Meteorological yield
    (kg·hm-2)
    趋势产量
    Trend yield
    (kg·hm-2)
    统计产量
    Statistical yield
    (kg·hm-2)
    正常投入的产量
    Normal yield
    (kg·hm-2)
    减产率
    Yield loss
    (%)
    雁江Yanjiang 1994 -394 7 240 6 783 7 553 10.2
    营山Yingshan 2001 -320 7 783 7 449 7 890 5.6
    隆昌Longchang 2006 -364 7 785 7 356 7 865 6.5
    盐亭Yanting 2006 -373 6 978 6 510 7 008 7.1
    大竹Dazhu 2007 -128 7 108 6 874 7 405 7.2
    下载: 导出CSV
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出版历程
  • 收稿日期:  2018-08-07
  • 录用日期:  2018-10-21
  • 刊出日期:  2019-04-01

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