探索气候变化对新疆天山北坡经济带棉花种植区划的影响, 对新疆棉花产业的发展规划具有重要意义。利用1961—2010年天山北坡经济带棉区11个代表站的气象资料, 采用气候倾向率、滑动t-检验、Mann- Kendall法和IDW插值等方法, 同时以≥10 ℃积温、7月平均气温和无霜期3个气候要素作为衡量棉花气候区划的指标, 通过GIS技术研究各年代棉花种植区划的风险棉区、次宜棉区和宜棉区的变化。结果表明, 近50年, 新疆天山北坡经济带7月平均气温、无霜期和≥l0 ℃积温, 分别以0.05 ℃10a-1、2.9 d10a-1和64.6 ℃d10a-1的速率升高、延长和增多。受气候变暖的影响, 天山北坡经济带棉花区划总体呈现风险棉区向东缩小并南移、次宜棉区向东缩小和宜棉区南移并东西双向扩展的变化特征。21世纪前10年与20世纪60年代相比, 风险棉区从石河子市站点附近以及呼图壁县以东广大地区缩小至乌鲁木齐市站点附近, 面积缩小98.4%, 减少至3.6×102 km2; 次宜棉区从原来的呼图壁县以西的大部分县市缩小至乌鲁木齐市站点以南的地区, 面积缩小88.0%, 减少至8.6×103 km2; 宜棉区面积则增加18.4倍, 达9.2×104 km2, 占天山北坡经济带棉花总分区的91.2%。随着气候变化天山北坡经济带适宜种植棉花的潜在区域不断扩大, 21世纪之后宜棉区已成为天山北坡经济带棉区的主体, 有利于当地棉花产业的合理布局, 对促进天山北坡经济带棉花产业的稳步发展具有现实意义。
Exploring the effect of climate change on the regionalization of cotton in the Northern Slope Economic Zone of Tianshan Mountain is important for development planning of Xinjiang cotton industry. Thus this study analyzed meteorological data for 19612010 from 11 meteorological stations in the Northern Slope Economic Zone of Tianshan Mountain using linear regression, t-test, Mann-Kendall method and IDW interpolation method. The study elaborately zoned climate regions of cotton with cumulative temperature ≥10 ℃, average temperature in July and frost free period as meterological indicators. Furthermore, the study determined the risk region, sub-suitable and suitable regions of cotton planting during a given era using GIS platform. The results showed that in recent 50 years, average temperature in July, frost free period and ≥10 ℃ cumulative temperature increased respectively by 0.05 ℃10a-1, 2.9 d10a1 and 64.6 ℃10a-1. Due to climate warming, the area of risk region of cotton planting dropped and was largely limited to the southeast zone. While the sub-suitable region of cotton planting shrank down to the east zone, the suitable region of cotton planting widened towards east, west and south. In the 1960s, the risk region of cotton planting covered Shawan County, Manasi County and Hutubi County. Then in the 2000s, the risk region of cotton planting decreased down to Urumqi vicinity with area of 3.6×102 km2 in 20012010, 98.4% less than that in 1960s. Also sub-suitable region of cotton planting contracted down to around Urumqi in 20012010, decreasing by 88.0% compared with that in 1960s. Then area of sub-suitable region of cotton planting in the study area decreased to 8.6×103 km2. During 19611970, sub-suitable region of cotton planting was limited to Hutubi County. Then during 19912000, it decreased to the region around Urumqi County. However, the area of suitable region of cotton planting expanded by 18.4 times to 9.2×104 km2. The proportion of the suitable region of cotton planting was 91.2% of total cultivated cotton area. The suitable region of cotton planting potentially continued to expand with climate change. The study showed that the suitable cotton planting region will be the main cultivated cotton region in the Northern Slope Economic Zone of Tianshan Mountain in the 21st century. This change was conducive for rational distribution of local cotton industry. It had realistic significance for the promotion of steady development of cotton industry in the Northern Slope Economic Zone of Tianshan Mountain.