温芮, 高燕燕, 吴志豪, 钱会. 关中平原城市群土地利用变化对碳储量时空格局的影响[J]. 中国生态农业学报 (中英文), 2024, 32(4): 1−13. DOI: 10.12357/cjea.20230508
引用本文: 温芮, 高燕燕, 吴志豪, 钱会. 关中平原城市群土地利用变化对碳储量时空格局的影响[J]. 中国生态农业学报 (中英文), 2024, 32(4): 1−13. DOI: 10.12357/cjea.20230508
WEN R, GAO Y Y, WU Z H, QIAN H. Effects of land use change on the temporal and spatial pattern of carbon storage in Guanzhong Plain urban agglomeration[J]. Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture, 2024, 32(4): 1−13. DOI: 10.12357/cjea.20230508
Citation: WEN R, GAO Y Y, WU Z H, QIAN H. Effects of land use change on the temporal and spatial pattern of carbon storage in Guanzhong Plain urban agglomeration[J]. Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture, 2024, 32(4): 1−13. DOI: 10.12357/cjea.20230508

关中平原城市群土地利用变化对碳储量时空格局的影响

Effects of land use change on the temporal and spatial pattern of carbon storage in Guanzhong Plain urban agglomeration

  • 摘要: 生态系统碳储量的变化与土地利用的格局关系紧密, 研究碳储量的变化对实现双碳目标具有重要意义。关中平原城市群是西部地区第二大城市群, 国家战略的实施影响着土地利用类型, 进而影响碳储量的时空分布。本文通过集成InVEST模型与PLUS模型, 解析2000—2020年关中平原城市群土地利用类型和碳储量的时空演化特征, 预测在自然增长、生态保护和经济发展3种情景下, 2030年关中平原城市群土地利用和碳储量的变化。结果表明: 1) 2000—2020年关中平原城市群主要土地利用类型为耕地和林地, 草地向耕地和林地转换以及耕地向建设用地转换是研究区土地利用类型转换的主要方式。2) 2030年关中平原城市群在3种情景下, 耕地面积均呈减少趋势。在自然增长、经济发展情景下, 林地和草地面积呈减少趋势, 建设用地存在显著式外延扩张; 在生态保护情景下, 林地和草地面积呈上升趋势, 建设用地面积略有下降。3) 2000—2020年, 导致碳储量降低的主要原因是林地和草地面积的萎缩, 碳储量累计减少7.02×106 t。4) 2030年在自然增长和经济发展情景下, 关中平原地区建设用地和耕地扩张明显, 碳储量明显降低; 生态保护情景下建设用地扩张面积相对较小, 在中部和东北部地区碳储量并无明显减小现象, 总体碳储量呈散落增加。研究结果可为关中平原城市群未来的城市规划、国土空间管理提供科学依据。未来关中平原城市群可在生态保护情景的基础上进一步发展, 在保护生态的同时限制建设用地的扩张。

     

    Abstract: The change in carbon storage in an ecosystem is closely related to the pattern of land use and studying changes in carbon storage is of great importance for achieving the dual carbon goal. The Guanzhong Plain urban agglomeration is the western region’s second-largest urban agglomeration, and the implementation of the national strategy affects the type of land use, which in turn affects the spatial and temporal distribution of carbon storage. By coupling the InVEST and PLUS models, this study analyzed the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of land use types and carbon storage in the Guanzhong Plain urban agglomeration from 2000 to 2020 and then predicted the changes in land use and carbon storage in the urban agglomeration of the Guanzhong Plain in 2030 under three scenarios: natural evolution, ecological protection, and economic development. The results showed the following: 1) From 2000 to 2020, the main land use types in the Guanzhong Plain urban agglomeration were arable land and forest land, with the conversion of grassland to cultivated land, and forest land and cultivated land to construction land being the most common types of land use conversion in the study area. 2) The predicted 2030 changes show that the cultivated land area of the Guanzhong Plain urban agglomeration tends to decrease under all three scenarios. Under the scenarios of natural evolution and economic development, the areas of forestland and grassland show a decreasing trend and a significant expansion of construction land. Under the ecological protection scenario, forestland and grassland areas show an upward trend, while construction land decreases slightly. 3) From 2000 to 2020, the major reason for the reduction in carbon storage was the shrinkage of forest land and grassland, which decreased by 7.02×106 t. 4) In the 2030 changes, under the scenarios of natural evolution and economic development, both construction land and cultivated land in the Guanzhong Plain will expand significantly and the carbon storage will be significantly reduced; under the ecological protection scenario, the expansion area of construction land is relatively small, the carbon storage in the central and northeastern regions does not decrease significantly, and the overall carbon storage increases in a scattered manner. The results provide a scientific basis for future urban planning and land space management in the Guanzhong Plain urban agglomeration. In the future, the Guanzhong Plain urban agglomeration can be further developed based on ecological protection scenarios and construction land expansion can be limited while protecting the ecology.

     

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