山东省农业现代化发展水平时空演化及影响因素研究

孟晓; 田明华; 于法稳

doi:10.12357/cjea.20230030

山东省农业现代化发展水平时空演化及影响因素研究

doi: 10.12357/cjea.20230030

孟晓^1,,
田明华¹,
于法稳^2, ,

1.
北京林业大学经济管理学院　北京　100083
2.
中国社会科学院农村发展研究所　北京　100732

基金项目: 国家社会科学基金一般项目(21BJY196)资助

详细信息

作者简介:
孟晓, 研究方向为农林经济理论与政策。E-mail: mengxiao0320@bjfu.edu.cn

通讯作者:
于法稳, 研究方向为农业生态经济。E-mail: yufaw@cass.org.cn

中图分类号: F320.1
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- HTML全文浏览量: 16
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- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2023-01-12
- 录用日期: 2023-03-09
- 网络出版日期: 2023-04-17

Spatiotemporal evolution and influencing factors of the development level of agricultural modernization in Shandong province

MENG Xiao^1
,,
TIAN Minghua¹,
YU Fawen^{2
, ,}

1.
Schools of Economics and management, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China
2.
Rural Development Institute, Chinese Academy of Social Science, Beijing 100732, China

Funds: The study was supported by the National Social Science Foundation of China (21BJY196)

More Information

Corresponding author: E-mail: yufaw@cass.org.cn

摘要

摘要: 农业现代化是建设现代化农业强国的必要条件, 探索农业现代化发展水平以利于加快推进农业现代化进程。文章测度山东省及其16地市农业现代化发展水平, 借助探索性空间数据分析法分析时空演化, 引入障碍度模型和空间计量模型探索内部制约因素和外部驱动因素。结果表明: 1) 2010—2020年山东省农业现代化发展水平和生产投入、产业经营、质量效益、绿色发展、农村社会子系统发展水平得分呈波动上升趋势, 其中产业经营子系统发展较快, 生产投入和质量效益子系统发展不稳定; 各地市农业现代化发展水平形成“高却不稳”和“低水平陷阱”分异, 多数地市内部结构逐渐均衡, 以经营引领和社会引领类型为主。2)农业现代化发展高水平等级集聚在东部沿海地区并向内陆地区扩张, 低水平等级集聚于鲁南5市。3)电气化水平制约80%以上地市农业现代化发展水平, 医疗条件制约多数农业现代化发展低水平的地市, 生产投入型制约因素逐渐转化为产业和产出型制约因素; 城镇化水平、科技水平、教育投入和经济发展水平都显著正向影响农业现代化发展水平, 科技水平、教育投入具有显著的空间溢出效应。因此, 应因地制宜发挥优势, 协调内部均衡发展, 加强区域合作交流, 减少内部因素制约并强化外部要素驱动及外溢效应。
- 农业现代化 /
- 低水平陷阱 /
- 同类集聚 /
- 障碍度模型 /
- 空间计量模型
Abstract: China has to achieve the goal of fully building a socialist modern power by 2050. Agricultural power is the foundation of a socialist modern power, and agricultural modernization is a necessary condition for building a modern agricultural power. Shandong Province is the first major agricultural province in China with a total output value of agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery (valued at 1019.06 billion yuan) exceeding one trillion yuan. Exploring the spatiotemporal evolution and influencing factors of the development level of agricultural modernization in Shandong Province can help accelerate the development process of agricultural modernization, provide scientific basis for realizing the transformation from a major agricultural province to a modern agricultural province, and provide reference for development planning for other regions to achieve agricultural modernization. The existing research neglects the heterogeneity analysis of the internal structure evolution and key constraints of regional agricultural modernization development level, lacks the temporal and spatial analysis of the evolution of agricultural modernization development level, and does not explore the external factors that affect the development level of agricultural modernization. This article uses a multi objective comprehensive measure to evaluate the development level of agricultural modernization in Shandong Province and 16 cities, analyzes the spatiotemporal evolution using exploratory spatial data analysis methods, and introduces obstacle model and spatial econometric model to explore internal constraints and external drivers. The results show that: 1) The development level of agricultural modernization in Shandong Province and the scores of production inputs, industry and operation, output benefits, green development, and rural community subsystems show a fluctuating upward trend from 2010 to 2020, with the rapid development of industry and operation subsystems being prominent, but the development of production inputs and output benefits subsystems is unstable; The development level of agricultural modernization in various regions and cities has formed differences between “high but unstable” and “low-level traps”. The internal structure of most regions and cities is gradually balanced, with the main types of business and social leadership. 2) The spatial manifestation is significant spatial agglomeration. High levels of agricultural modernization development are concentrated in the eastern coastal areas and expanding to inland areas, while low levels are gradually concentrated in the five cities of southern Shandong. There is an abnormal spatial distribution at the junction of high level and low level clusters. 3) The level of electrification restricts the development level of agricultural modernization in more than 80% of prefectures and cities, while medical conditions restrict most prefectures and cities with low levels of agricultural modernization. Input type constraints gradually transform into industrial and output type constraints; Urbanization level, science and technology level, education investment, and economic development level all significantly and positively affect the development level of agricultural modernization, among which science and technology level and education investment have significant spatial spillover effects. Therefore, it is necessary to take advantage of local conditions, coordinate internal balanced development, strengthen regional cooperation and exchange, reduce internal constraints and strengthen external factor driving and spillover effects.
- Agricultural modernization /
- Low level traps /
- Homogeneous agglomeration /
- Obstacle model /
- Spatial econometric model

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图 1 2010—2020年山东省农业现代化发展水平及年增长率

Figure 1. Development level and annual growth rate of agricultural modernization in Shandong Province from 2010 to 2020

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图 2 2010—2020年山东省农业现代化发展水平子系统发展水平得分及子系统协调度

Figure 2. Development level scores and coordination of agricultural modernization development level subsystem in Shandong Province from 2010 to 2020

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图 3 部分年份山东省16地市农业现代化发展水平得分

Figure 3. Scores of agricultural modernization development level of 16 cities in Shandong Province in some years

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 4 山东省各地市农业现代化结构分布

雷达图线条颜色依据年份逐渐加深; A1、A2、A3、A4、A5分别表示生产投入、产业经营、质量效益、绿色发展、农村社会子系统。The line color of radar chart is gradually deepening with year. A1, A2, A3, A4 and A5 respectively represent production input, industry and operation, output benefit, green development and rural community subsystems.

Figure 4. Distribution of agricultural modernization structure in Shandong Province

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图 5 2010年、2015年和2020年山东省农业现代化发展水平空间分布

Figure 5. Spatial distribution of agricultural modernization development level in Shandong Province in 2010, 2015 and 2020

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图 6 2010年、2015年、2020年山东省农业现代化发展水平Moran散点-LISA分布

Figure 6. Moran scatter-LISA distribution of agricultural modernization development level in Shandong Province in 2010, 2015 and 2020

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

表 1 农业现代化发展水平评价指标体系

Table 1. Evaluation index system of agricultural modernization development level

一级指标 First-level indicator	二级指标 Secondary indicator	指标定义 Definition	属性 Index attribute
生产投入 Production input	机械化程度 Mechanization degree	单位耕地面积机械总动力 Total mechanical power per unit cultivated area	+
	水利化程度 Water conservancy degree	有效灌溉面积占耕地面积比重 Proportion of effective irrigation area to cultivated land area	+
	电气化程度 Electrification degree	农村人均用电量 Rural electricity consumption per capita	+
	科技化发展 Scientific and technological development	农林牧渔业研发经费占农林牧渔业增加值比重 Proportion of R&D funds for agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery in the added value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery	+
产业经营 Industry and operation	规模生产程度 Scale production degree	户均耕地面积 Cultivated area per household	+
	农林牧渔服务业效率 Efficiency of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery services	农林牧渔服务业产值占农林牧渔业总产值比重 Proportion of output value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery services in total output value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery	+
	经营管理能力 Operation and management ability	普通高中在校人数+中专在校人数 Number of students in ordinary high schools and number of students in technical secondary schools	+
	产业融合潜力 Industrial integration potential	第一产业产值占总产值比重 Proportion of output value of primary industry in total output value	−
	产业结构优化 Optimization of industrial structure	畜牧业产值占农林牧渔总产值比重 Proportion of output value of animal husbandry in total output value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery	+
质量效益 Output benefit	粮食综合生产能力 Comprehensive grain production capacity	单位耕地面积粮食产量 Grain yield per unit cultivated area	+
	肉类综合生产能力 Comprehensive meat production capacity	肉类产品产量 Output of meat products
	土地生产率 Land productivity	单位耕地面积农林牧渔增加值 Added value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery per unit cultivated area	+
	农民收入水平 Farmers’ income level	农民人均纯收入 Per capita income of farmers	+
绿色发展 Green development	防护林建设率 Protection forest construction rate	防护林面积占造林总面积比率 Ratio of protective forest area to total afforestation area	+
	地均农药使用量 Average pesticide use	单位耕地面积化肥使用量 Fertilizer use per unit cultivated area	−
	地均化肥使用量 Average fertilizer use	单位耕地面积农药使用量 Pesticide use per unit cultivated area	−
	农业耗水量 Agricultural water consumption	每万元农林牧渔GDP消耗水量 Water consumption per 10 000 ¥ agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery GDP	−
农村社会 Rural community	城乡收入差距 Urban-rural income gap	城镇居民可支配收入与农村居民可支配收入比 Ratio of disposable income of urban residents to that of rural residents
	农村恩格尔系数 Rural Engel’s coefficient	全年农民人均食品消费额度占农民全年人均消费总额比重 Proportion of annual per capita food consumption quota of farmers in total annual per capita consumption	−
	医疗条件 Rural medical conditions	农民每万人拥有医护人员数 Number of medical staff per 10 000 farmers	+
	文娱水平 Rural cultural and entertainment level	农民每万人拥有文化站数量 Number of cultural stations owned by 10 000 farmers	+
表中“+”和“−”属性代表指标对农业现代化发展水平的正向、负向影响。“+” and “−” attributes in the table represent the positive and negative impact of the indicators on the development level of agricultural modernization.

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表 2 2010—2020年山东省农业现代化发展水平全局莫兰指数

Table 2. Global Morans’I index of agricultural modernization development level in Shandong Province from 2010 to 2020

年份 Year	I	E(I)	Z	P*
2010	0.235	−0.067	1.890	0.029
2011	0.265	−0.067	2.082	0.019
2012	0.283	−0.067	2.193	0.014
2013	0.326	−0.067	2.461	0.007
2014	0.280	−0.067	2.191	0.014
2015	0.264	−0.067	2.089	0.018
2016	0.267	−0.067	2.106	0.018
2017	0.268	−0.067	2.123	0.017
2018	0.202	−0.067	1.701	0.044
2019	0.203	−0.067	1.718	0.043
2020	0.214	−0.067	1.773	0.038
I为全局莫兰指数; E(I)为I的数学期望值。P<0.05, 表示在5%水平显著; P<0.1, 表示在10%水平下显著。I is the Global Morans’I; E(I) is the value of mathematical expectation of I。P<0.05 represents a significance level of 5%,; P<0.1 represents a significance level of 10%,

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表 3 2010年、2015年、2020年山东省各地市农业现代化发展的关键障碍因素

Table 3. Key obstacle factors of agricultural modernization development in each city of Shandong Province in 2010, 2015 and 2020

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表 4 山东省农业现代化发展水平空间杜宾模型(SDM)模型回归结果

Table 4. Regression results of spatial Durbin model (SDM) of agricultural modernization development level in Shandong Province

变量 Variable	邻接权重 Adjacency weight		地理距离权重 Geographic distance weight
变量 Variable	模型估计系数 Model estimation coefficient	空间矩阵估计系数 Spatial matrix estimation coefficient	模型估计系数 Model estimation coefficient	空间矩阵估计系数 Spatial matrix estimation coefficient
urban	0.651*** (0.000)	−0.171 (0.333)	0.609*** (0.000)	0.335 (0.550)
agovern	0.067 (0.687)	0.229 (0.474)	−0.031 (0.834)	1.376** 0.092
lnpatent	0.048*** (0.005)	0.085*** (0.010)	0.047** (0.013)	0.336*** 0.005
edu	0.430*** (0.008)	0.800*** (0.006)	0.595*** (0.000)	5.487*** 0.000
lncagdp	0.084*** (0.001)	0.0002 (0.976)	0.117*** (0.001)	0.294 0.202
Loglikelihood	423.888		442.840
R²	0.3825		0.2393
urban: 城镇化; agovern: 政府支持水平; lnpatent: 科研水平; edu: 教育投入; lhcadgp: 经济发展水平。“”、“”、“*”分别代表在10%、5%、1%水平下显著。urban: urbanization; agovern: government support level; lnpatent: level of science and technology; edu: education investiment; cadgp: economy development level. “”, “” and “*” represents a significance level of 10%, 5%, and 1%, respectively.

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表 5 各变量对山东省农业现代化发展水平的直接效应和间接效应结果

Table 5. Direct and indirect effects of variables on agricultural modernization development level in Shandong Province

变量 Variable	邻接权重 Adjacency weight		地理距离权重 Geographic distance weight
变量 Variable	直接效应 Direct effect	间接效应 Indirect effect	直接效应 Direct effect	间接效应 Indirect effect
urban	0.649*** (0.000)	−0.664 (0.740)	0.608*** (0.000)	0.027 (0.941)
agovern	0.059 (0.682)	0.265 (0.479)	−0.094 (0.467)	0.965 (0.105)
lnpatent	0.155*** (0.003)	0.102** (0.012)	0.0.039** (0.032)	0.229** (0.015)
edu	0.478*** (0.007)	0.988*** (0.003)	0.431** (0.011)	3.721*** (0.000)
lncagdp	0.080*** (0.006)	0.021 (0.832)	0.103*** (0.003)	0.154 (0.378)
urban: 城镇化; agovern: 政府支持水平; lnpatent: 科研水平; edu: 教育投入; lhcadgp: 经济发展水平。“”、“”、“*”分别代表在10%、5%、1%水平下显著。urban: urbanization; agovern: government support level; lnpatent: level of science and technology; edu: education investiment; cadgp: economy development level. “”, “” and “*” represents a significance level of 10%, 5%, and 1%, respectively.

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山东省农业现代化发展水平时空演化及影响因素研究

doi: 10.12357/cjea.20230030

作者简介:
孟晓, 研究方向为农林经济理论与政策。E-mail: mengxiao0320@bjfu.edu.cn

通讯作者:
于法稳, 研究方向为农业生态经济。E-mail: yufaw@cass.org.cn

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Spatiotemporal evolution and influencing factors of the development level of agricultural modernization in Shandong province

Corresponding author: E-mail: yufaw@cass.org.cn

计量

目录

地市 City	2010	2015	2020
济南 Jinan	机械化程度、产业结构优化 Mechanization degree, optimization of industrial structure	电气化程度、粮食综合生产能力 Electrification degree, comprehensive grain production capacity	电气化程度、产业结构优化 Electrification degree, optimization of industrial structure
青岛 Qingdao	机械化程度、产业结构优化 Mechanization degree, optimization of industrial structure	电气化程度、肉类综合生产能力 Electrification degree, comprehensive meat production capacity	电气化程度、肉类综合生产能力 Electrification degree, comprehensive meat production capacity
淄博 Zibo	规模生产程度、肉类综合生产能力 Scale production degree, comprehensive meat production capacity	产业结构优化、肉类综合生产能力 Optimization of industrial structure, comprehensive meat production capacity	产业结构优化、肉类综合生产能力 Optimization of industrial structure, comprehensive meat production capacity
枣庄 Zaozhuang	科技化发展、医疗条件 Scientific and technological development, rural medical conditions	科技化发展、医疗条件 Scientific and technological development, rural medical conditions	产业结构优化、肉类综合生产能力 Optimization of industrial structure, comprehensive meat production capacity
东营 Dongying	机械化程度、电气化程度 Mechanization degree, electrification degree	电气化程度、肉类综合生产能力 Electrification degree, comprehensive meat production capacity	电气化程度、肉类综合生产能力 Electrification degree, comprehensive meat production capacity
烟台 Yantai	产业结构优化、医疗条件 Optimization of industrial structure, rural medical conditions	粮食综合生产能力、农村恩格尔系数 Comprehensive grain production capacity, rural Engel’s coefficient	电气化程度、医疗条件 Electrification degree, rural medical conditions
潍坊 Weifang	科技化发展、医疗条件 Scientific and technological development, rural medical conditions	电气化程度、医疗条件 Electrification degree, rural medical conditions	产业结构优化、医疗条件 Optimization of industrial structure, rural medical conditions
济宁 Jining	电气化程度、医疗条件 Electrification degree, rural medical conditions	电气化程度、科技化发展 Electrification degree, scientific and technological development	电气化程度、医疗条件 Electrification degree, rural medical conditions
泰安 Tai’an	电气化程度、医疗条件 Electrification degree, rural medical conditions	电气化程度、科技化发展 Electrification degree, scientific and technological development	电气化程度、产业结构优化 Electrification degree, optimization of industrial structure,
威海 Weihai	农林牧渔业服务效率、肉类综合生产能力 Efficiency of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery services; comprehensive meat production capacity	电气化程度、肉类综合生产能力 Electrification degree, comprehensive meat production capacity	电气化程度、肉类综合生产能力 Electrification degree, comprehensive meat production capacity
日照 Rizhao	电气化程度、医疗条件 Electrification degree, rural medical conditions	电气化程度、科技化发展 Electrification degree, scientific and technological development	电气化程度、医疗条件 Electrification degree, rural medical conditions
临沂 Linyi	电气化程度、医疗条件 Electrification degree, rural medical conditions	电气化程度、医疗条件 Electrification degree, rural medical conditions	电气化程度、医疗条件 Electrification degree, rural medical conditions
德州 Dezhou	电气化程度、医疗条件 Electrification degree, rural medical conditions	电气化程度、科技化发展 Electrification degree, scientific and technological development	电气化程度、医疗条件 Electrification degree, rural medical conditions
聊城 Liaocheng	电气化程度、医疗条件 Electrification degree, rural medical conditions	电气化程度、医疗条件 Electrification degree, rural medical conditions	电气化程度、医疗条件 Electrification degree, rural medical conditions
滨州 Binzhou	电气化程度、医疗条件 Electrification degree, rural medical conditions	电气化程度、科技化发展 Electrification degree, scientific and technological development	电气化程度、医疗条件 Electrification degree, rural medical conditions
菏泽 Heze	电气化程度、医疗条件 Electrification degree, rural medical conditions	电气化程度、科技化发展 Electrification degree, scientific and technological development	电气化程度、医疗条件 Electrification degree, rural medical conditions

留言板

山东省农业现代化发展水平时空演化及影响因素研究

doi: 10.12357/cjea.20230030

作者简介: 孟晓, 研究方向为农林经济理论与政策。E-mail: mengxiao0320@bjfu.edu.cn

通讯作者: 于法稳, 研究方向为农业生态经济。E-mail: yufaw@cass.org.cn

计量

出版历程

Spatiotemporal evolution and influencing factors of the development level of agricultural modernization in Shandong province

Corresponding author: E-mail: yufaw@cass.org.cn

计量

出版历程

目录

作者简介:
孟晓, 研究方向为农林经济理论与政策。E-mail: mengxiao0320@bjfu.edu.cn

通讯作者:
于法稳, 研究方向为农业生态经济。E-mail: yufaw@cass.org.cn