Nutrient flow characteristics analysis of typical county in crop-livestock systems in Black Soil Region in Northeast China
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摘要: 在保障粮食安全的前提下, 东北黑土区作物和畜牧生产的耦合促进农业绿色发展。本研究选择位于东北黑土区的吉林省农安县为研究边界, 通过实地调研、统计数据和文献, 结合食物链养分流动模型(NUFER: NUtrient flows in Food chains, Environment and Resources use)定量1990—2020年农牧系统氮磷养分流动、利用率和环境损失, 探究气候和社会经济因素对氮磷排放的驱动作用, 并设置平衡施肥(减少化肥施用)和有机替代(提升有机物料替代)两种情景评估该县减排潜力。结果表明, 相对于1990年, 2020年农安县农牧体系氮磷输入量分别下降41%和20%, 其中化肥施用是最大的输入项。作物和农牧系统养分利用率波动增加, 而畜禽系统养分利用率下降并趋于稳定。农牧体系氮磷损失量较1990年分别减少41%和增加29%。农田氨挥发、径流侵蚀和畜禽粪便直排为主要排放途径。通过平衡施肥和有机替代, 土壤氮磷积累处于较低水平时, 至2030年农安县化学氮肥有70%~80%的减施潜力, 化学磷肥有80%~85%的减施潜力, 且环境排放降低67%, 作物和农牧系统养分利用率均增长50%以上。综上, 农安县农牧体系化肥施用量大, 有机物料浪费严重使养分利用率处于较低水平, 环境排放强度高。未来可通过增加秸秆和粪便还田量提升化肥减施潜力。东北黑土区应继续深化化肥零增长政策, 推行有机废弃物资源化利用, 实现农牧系统协同优化发展。Abstract: The integration of crop and livestock production promotes agricultural green development under the guarantee of food security in Black Soil Region in Northeast China. In this study, Nong’an County, Jilin Province, located in Black Soil Region in Northeast China, was selected as the study boundary. Quantitative studies for nitrogen and phosphorus flows, utilization efficiency as well as environmental losses in crop-livestock systems from 1990 to 2020 were conducted through field research, statistical data and literature, combined with the NUFER model (NUtrient flows in Food chains, Environment and Resources use). Explore the driving role of climate and socio-economic factors on nitrogen and phosphorus emissions. Furthermore, two scenarios of balanced fertilization (reduce fertilizer application) and organic substitution (increase organic material substitution) were set up to assess the county’s emission reduction potential. The results showed that, compared to 1990, nitrogen and phosphorus inputs to crop-livestock systems for Nong’an County in 2020 decreased by 41% and 20%, respectively, with chemical fertilizer application as the largest input. The nutrient utilization efficiency of crop system and crop-livestock systems increased fluctuatingly, while nutrient utilization efficiency of livestock system decreased and tended to remain stable. The nitrogen and phosphorus losses of crop-livestock systems decreased by 41% and increased by 29% compared to 1990, respectively. Ammonia volatilization from farmland, runoff and erosion, and livestock manure discharge as the major emission routes. Through balanced fertilization and organic substitution, it is predicted that by 2030, Nong’an County will have the potential to reduce the application of chemical nitrogen fertilizer by 70% to 80% and chemical phosphorus fertilizer by 80% to 85%, based on the low levels of soil nitrogen and phosphorus accumulation, and the environmental emissions will be reduced by 67%, the nutrient utilization efficiency of crop system and crop-livestock systems will increase by more than 50%. In conclusion, Nong’an County has a high application of chemical fertilizer and a significant waste of organic materials in crop-livestock systems, which resulted in a low level of nutrient utilization and high environmental emissions. In the future, increasing the potential of fertilizer application reduction is considerable by increasing the amount of crop straw and manure returned to the field. The Black Soil Region in Northeast China should continue to deepen the policy of zero grow in fertilizer, and promote the resource utilization of organic waste to guarantee a synergistically optimized crop-livestock systems.
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图 1 研究区吉林省农安县地理位置
Figure 1. Geographical location of the study area of Nong’an County, Jinlin Province
图 2 1990—2020年农安县种植业(a)和畜牧业(b)结构变化
LU为livestock unit, 表示标准牛当量(折合500 kg奶牛), 不同动物的折换LU的比例分别为: 奶牛 1∶1; 肉牛 0.8∶1; 猪 0.3∶1; 羊 0.1∶1; 蛋鸡 0.014∶1[21]。LU is livestock unit, which indicates the standard cattle equivalent (equivalent to 500 kg of dairy cattle). and the conversion ratios for different animals are 1∶1 for dairy cattle, 0.8∶1 for beef cattle, 0.3∶1 for pig, 0.1∶1 for sheep and 0.014∶1 for layer[21].
Figure 2. Changes of crop (a) and livestock (b) production structures from 1990 to 2020 in Nong’an County
图 3 农安县农牧生产系统边界和养分流动图
A表示种植业系统; B表示养殖业系统; C表示大气环境; D表示土壤; E表示水体; a表示化肥投入; b表示饲料进口; c表示农作物收获; d表示农作物秸秆; e表示食品加工。A: indicates crop system; B: indicates livestock system; C: indicates atmospheric environment; D: indicates soil; E: indicates water body; a: indicates fertilizer input; b: indicates feed import; c: indicates crop harvest; d: indicates crop straw; e: indicates food processing.
Figure 3. Research boundary and nutrient flow of crop-livestock systems in Nong’an County
4 1990年和2020年农安县农牧体系氮磷养分流动特征及年际差异
4. Changes of nitrogen and phosphorus flows of crop-livestock systems of 1990 and 2020 in Nong’an County
图 5 1990—2020年农安县农牧系统氮(a)和磷(b)利用效率
NUEc: 作物氮利用率; NUEa: 畜禽氮利用率; NUEc+a: 农牧系统氮利用率; PUEc: 作物磷利用率; PUEa: 畜禽磷利用率; PUEc+a: 农牧系统磷利用率; 实线表示线性回归, 阴影区域表示95%置信区间(每组线性回归n=31)。NUEc: nitrogen use efficiency of crop; NUEa: nitrogen use efficiency of animal; NUEc+a: nitrogen use efficiency of crop-livestock system; PUEc: phosphorus use efficiency of crop; PUEa: phosphorus use efficiency of animal; PUEc+a: phosphorus use efficiency of crop-livestock system. The solid line denotes the linear regression and the shaded region denotes the 95% confidence intervals (linear regression for each group n=31).
Figure 5. Use efficiency of nitrogen (a) and phosphorus (b) of crop-livestock systems from 1990 to 2020 in Nong’an County
图 6 1990—2020年农安县农牧系统氮(a)和磷(b)养分环境损失
NPLc: 每生产1 kg作物产品的氮损失; NPLa: 每生产1 kg动物产品的氮损失; NPLc+a: 每生产1 kg农牧产品(作物产品+畜禽产品)的氮损失; PPLc: 每生产1 kg作物产品的磷损失; PPLa: 每生产1 kg动物产品的磷损失; PPLc+a: 每生产1 kg农牧产品(作物产品+畜禽产品)的磷损失; 实线表示线性回归, 阴影区域表示95%置信区间(每组线性回归n=31)。NPLc: nitrogen loss for 1 kg crop products; NPLa: nitrogen loss for 1 kg animal products; NPLc+a: nitrogen loss for 1 kg crop and livestock products; PPLc: phosphorus loss for 1 kg crop products; PPLa: phosphorus loss for 1 kg animal products; PPLc+a: phosphorus loss for 1 kg crop and livestock products. The solid line denotes the linear regression and the shaded region denotes the 95% confidence intervals (linear regression for each group n=31).
Figure 6. Environmental losses of nitrogen (a) and phosphorus (b) of crop-livestock systems from 1990 to 2020 in Nong’an County
图 7 农安县农牧体系氮磷排放强度与气候和社会经济因素的关系
NPL: 每生产1 kg农产品的总氮排放强度; PPL: 每生产1 kg农产品的总磷排放强度; NPLc: 每生产1 kg作物产品的氮损失; NPLa: 每生产1 kg动物产品的氮损失; NPLc+a: 每生产1 kg农牧产品(作物产品+畜禽产品)的氮损失; PPLc: 每生产1 kg作物产品的磷损失; PPLa: 每生产1 kg动物产品的磷损失; PPLc+a: 每生产1 kg农牧产品(作物产品+畜禽产品)的磷损失; 实线表示线性回归, 阴影区域表示95%置信区间(每组线性回归n=31)。NPL: total nitrogen emission intensity for 1 kg agricultural products; PPL: total phosphorus emission intensity for 1 kg agricultural products. NPLc: nitrogen loss for 1 kg crop products; NPLa: nitrogen loss for 1 kg animal products; NPLc+a: nitrogen loss for 1 kg crop and livestock products; PPLc: phosphorus loss for 1 kg crop products; PPLa: phosphorus loss for 1 kg animal products; PPLc+a: phosphorus loss for 1 kg crop and livestock products. The solid line denotes the linear regression and the shaded region denotes the 95% confidence intervals (linear regression for each group n=31).
Figure 7. Nitrogen and phosphorus emission intensity of crop-livestock systems in relation to climate and socioeconomic factors in Nong’an County
图 8 2020年和2030年不同情景下农安县农牧体系养分平衡、环境损失及利用效率
2020和2030为基准年份; S1-N60、S2-N70、S3-N80为2020年情景中化肥氮减施60%、70%、80%; S4-N70、S5-N80、S6-N90为2030年情景中化肥氮减施70%、80%、90%; S1-P75、S2-P80、S3-P85为2020年情景中化肥磷减施75%、80%、85%; S4-P80、S5-P85、S6-P90为2030年情景中化肥磷减施80%、85%、90%。2020 and 2030 are base years; S1-N60, S2-N70, S3-N80 are scenarios of chemical fertilizer nitrogen reduction of 60%, 70%, 80% in 2020; S4-N70, S5-N80, S6-N90 are scenarios of chemical fertilizer nitrogen reduction of 70%, 80%, 90% in 2030; S1-P75, S2-P80, S3-P85 are scenarios of chemical fertilizer phosphorus reduction of 75%, 80%, 85% in 2020; S4-P80, S5-P85, S6-P90 are scenarios of chemical fertilizer phosphorus reduction of 80%, 85%, 90% in 2030.
Figure 8. Nutrient balance, environmental losses and use efficiency of crop-livestock systems in Nong’an County in different scenarios in 2020 and 2030
图 9 1990—2020年农安县单位面积农业源温室气体排放量变化
单位面积农业源温室气体排放量由NUFER模型计算得出, 排放因子系数采用NUFER模型参数。Agricultural source GHG emissions per unit area are calculated by NUFER model, and emission factor coefficients are adopted by NUFER model parameters.
Figure 9. Changes in agricultural source GHG emissions per unit area from 1990 to 2020 in Nong’an County
表 1 不同农作物种植户调研数据
Table 1. Field research data of different crop farmers
种类
Species粮食作物种植户
Cereal crop farmers经济作物种植户
Cash crop farmers其他作物种植户
Other crop farmers样本数 Sample 187 69 53 耕地面积 Cultivated area (hm2) 377 319 23 180 8281 播种面积 Sown area (hm2) 373 329 22 935 8193 单位面积产量 Yield per unit area (kg·hm−2) 8458 2928 36 866 籽粒利用方式
Grain utilization mode (%)饲喂 Feed 68 44 0 废弃 Waste 8 8 8 食品 Food 18 42 86 其他 Others 6 6 6 秸秆利用方式
Straw utilization mode (%)饲喂 Feed 38 42 0 还田 Return to field 44 36 0 焚烧 Burn 0 0 0 其他 Others 18 22 0 施肥用量
Fertilization amount (kg·mu−1)基肥 Base fertilizer 35~40 40~50 33~46 追肥 Top application 15~20 5~8 13~18 施肥类型
Fertilization type基肥 Base fertilizer 复合肥
Compound有机肥+尿素
Organic & Urea有机肥
Organic追肥 Top application 复合肥+尿素
Compound & Urea复合肥
Compound复合肥
Compound施用方式
Application method基肥 Base fertilizer 深施
Deep application表施
Broadcast表施
Broadcast追肥 Top application 表施+灌水
Broadcast & Irrigation深施
Deep application表施+灌水
Broadcast & Irrigation
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表 2 不同畜禽养殖户调研数据
Table 2. Field research data of different livestock farmers
种类
Species生猪养殖户
Pig farmer肉牛养殖户
Beef cattle farmer奶牛养殖户
Dairy cattle farmer羊养殖户
Sheep farmer蛋鸡养殖户
Layer farmer样本数 Sample 54 10 1 14 14 养殖规模 Size (head) ≥500 ≥100 ≥100 ≥500 ≥10 000 饲料摄入量
Feed intake (kg∙head−1∙a−1)254 3454 7793 756 30 清粪方式
Cleaning method干清粪
Dry manure干清粪
Dry manure干清粪
Dry manure干清粪
Dry manure干清粪
Dry manure粪尿处理方式
Manure treatment厌氧+处理中心、厌氧+有机肥厂、沼气池+厌氧池
Anaerobic & Treatment center; Anaerobic & Organic; Biogas & Anaerobic厌氧+处理中心
Anaerobic & Treatment center厌氧+处理中心
Anaerobic & Treatment center厌氧+处理中心
Anaerobic & Treatment center厌氧+处理中心
Anaerobic & Treatment center粪尿还田后氨挥发系数[26]
NH3 after manure to field (%)[26]25 25 25 25 25 粪尿储藏阶段氨挥发系数[26]
NH3 during storage (%)[26]29 19 19 24 12 粪尿年产生量
Manure production
(kg∙head−1∙a−1)氮 Nitrogen 4.9 30.0 70.0 7.1 0.55 磷 Phosphorus 1.7 4.8 12.9 1.0 0.25 粪尿利用情况
Manure utilization
(%)还田 Applied 49 58 58 49 52 直排 Discharged 31 28 28 36 41
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表 3 农安县农牧体系养分环境排放与气候和社会经济因素模型
Table 3. Models of nutrient environmental emissions of crop-livestock systems with climate and socioeconomic factors in Nong’an County
参数
Parameter项目
Itemln (单位农产品总氮排放强度)
ln (total nitrogen emission intensity per unit agricultural product)ln (单位作物产品氮损失)
lnNPLcln (单位畜禽产品氮损失)
lnNPLaln (单位农牧产品氮损失)
lnNPLc+aModel 1 Model 2 Model 1 Model 2 Model 1 Model 2 r ln(人均GDP) ln(GDP per capita) −0.27*** −0.06*** −0.28*** ln(城市化率) ln(urbanization rate) −1.32*** −0.24* −1.59*** 年均温度 Annual average temperature −0.07 −0.13 <0.01 −0.01 −0.05 −0.12* 累积降雨量 Accumulated rainfall >−0.01*** >−0.01*** >−0.01* >−0.01** >−0.01** >−0.01** n 31 31 31 31 31 31 调整后的R2
Adj. R-squared0.85 0.55 0.66 0.30 0.86 0.61 参数
Parameter项目
Itemln (单位农产品总磷排放强度)
ln (total phosphorus emission intensity per unit agricultural product)ln (单位作物产品磷损失)
lnPPLcln (单位畜禽产品磷损失)
lnPPLaln (单位农牧产品磷损失)
lnPPLc+aModel 1 Model 2 Model 1 Model 2 Model 1 Model 2 r ln (人均GDP) ln (GDP per capita) −0.17*** −0.15*** −0.05 ln (城市化率) ln (urbanization rate) −0.82** −0.73*** 0.38 年均温度 Annual average temperature −0.02 −0.06 −0.01 −0.04 −0.02 −0.03 累积降雨量 Accumulated rainfall >−0.01*** >−0.01*** <0.01* >−0.01* >−0.01** >−0.01*** n 31 31 31 31 31 31 调整后的R2
Adj. R-squared0.79 0.56 0.92 0.46 0.28 0.29 *P<0.05, **P<0.01, ***P<0.001。Model 1不考虑城市化率, Model 2中不考虑人均GDP。In Model 1, urbanization rate is removed; in Model 2, GDP per capita is removed.
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