焉耆盆地气候变化和人类活动对生态系统服务价值的影响研究

The impact of human activity and climate change on ecosystem services value in the Yanqi Basin, Xinjiang, China

  • 摘要: 环境变化下的生态服务功能研究, 对生态环境与社会经济持续发展具有重要的科学意义和应用价值。本文以新疆焉耆盆地作为研究对象, 基于Landsat遥感影像数据、DEM数据和气象要素数据, 运用非参数气候变化突变点检验(MK, Mann-Kendall-Sneyers test)、趋势分析方法(Mann-Kendall, MK), 通过计算生态服务价值(ESV)和土地利用/覆盖变化(LUCC)动态度, 对新疆焉耆盆地近40 a (1973—2014年)生态服务功能的变化及其驱动因素进行了分析。结果显示: 1)生态系统服务价值和功能的变化是气候变化和人类活动共同作用的结果; 2)山区冰川面积的缩小是山区生态服务价值减少的主要原因; 3)平原区的生态系统服务价值以2004年为转折点呈现先减少后增加的趋势, 整个研究区的生态服务价值分别为1973年85.86×108元、1977年94.46×108元、1994年84.15×108元、2004年89.40×108元和2014年96.47×108元, 这与降水量和蒸发量变化趋势吻合。人类活动如长期开垦、扩大绿洲面积和有益的气候变化支撑(降水量增加、蒸发量减少)是平原区生态服务价值增加的主要原因。在山区, 生态服务价值随着降水量、蒸发量的变化而变化, 在绿洲区生态服务价值的变化是人类开荒耕地、还林、还耕, 以及人工栽培芦苇等活动和气候变暖共同作用的结果。

     

    Abstract: Ecosystem goods and services refer to the dependence of economic wealth and human well-being on natural systems. It is common sense that the structures and functions of ecosystems are changing due to climate change and human activity. There is a heated research on the variations in Ecosystem Services Values (ESV) under intensified global change both in time and space. It is a priority issue to determine, at various spatiotemporal scales, the sensitivity of ecosystems to climate change and anthropogenic pressure in arid areas. To better understand the effect of climate change and human activity on ecosystem services, we evaluated the changes in ecosystem services values from 1973 to 2014 in Yanqi Basin, Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region, China. The evaluation methods used included the Mann-Kendall (MK), Mann-Kendall-Sneyers test, ESV and dynamic land use/cover change (LUCC) degree. The ecosystem services value evaluated included gas regulation, climate regulation, water conservation, soil formation, waste disposal, biodiversity protection, food production, raw materials, recreation and leisure. Landsat images, digital elevation model (DEM) and metrological data were used to evaluate ESV and the related changes. Based on the degree of the effects of climate change and human activity, the research area was divided into two parts — the mountain area (mainly affected by climate change) and the plain oasis area (mainly affected by human activity) at a contour of 1 400 m above sea level. According to the type and effect, land cover was classified as water, wetland, plain desert, cultivated land, glacier, warm shrub grassland, cold meadow steppe and highland vegetation. We analyzed the relationship among the variations in ESV, precipitation and evaporation and then quantitatively differentiated the effect of climate change and human activity on ESV. The results showed that: 1) the MK-Sneyers test detected distinct points of change in precipitation and evaporation in mountain area and plain oasis in Yanqi Basin. Precipitation increased and evaporation decreased in mountain area and plain oasis in the same way. Conversion matrix analysis of LUCC detected expansion of agricultural areas to provide food for the increasing population and socio-economic development in the oasis areas. Thus variations in ESV were caused jointly by climate change and human activity. 2) The declining trend in ESV in mountain area was mainly due to the shrinking of glacier areas. 3) ESV decreased initially and increased afterwards with 2004 as the turning point, following the increasing trend in precipitation and evaporation. The calculated total ESV was 85.86×108 Yuan in 1973, 94.46×108 Yuan in 1977, 84.15×108 Yuan in 1994, 89.40×108 Yuan in 2004 and 96.47×108Yuan in 2014, respectively. The combined effects of climate change and human activity were main causes of ESV variations in the past 40 years in Yanqi Basin. The main reasons for the increasing ESV in the plain oasis included enlargement of artificial oasis due to intensified human activity and supporting favorable climate change such as increasing precipitation and decreasing evaporation.

     

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