山西省小麦条锈病流行趋势预测模型研究

Forecast model for prevalent stripe rust in winter wheat in Shanxi Province

摘要: 本研究分析了山西省小麦条锈病流行的影响因素和预测依据；对1981～2003年流行情况资料，采用回归分析法，建立预测模型：Y=-0.2766+0.0249X₁+0.0104 X₂+0.0132X₃,经回归检验，历史符合率高达87.5%。通径分析进一步证明，4月中旬～5月下旬的降雨量对条锈病流行具有最显著影响。

Abstract: The factors that affect wheat stripe rust in Shanxi Province were analyzed and wheat stripe rust forecast model formulated:Y=-0.2766+0.0249X₁+0.0104X₂+0.0132X₃.The forecast model is a regression analysis of data from 1981 to 2003.It is shown by regression test that the model simulation matches with history records for 87.5% of tested cases.Rainfall from mid April to late May significantly affect stripe rust prevalence.