气候变化下东北水稻冷害时空分布变化

Variation in spatial and temporal distribution of chilling injury of rice under climate change in Northeast China

  • 摘要: 东北水稻生产对我国粮食安全保障具有重要的作用和意义, 加强气候变化下灾害的研究有利于趋利避害。本文通过对1961-2010年各年代东北水稻生长季节(5-9月)的月平均气温、月平均气温之和以及近30年(1981-2010年)月平均气温之和距平3个指标变化的分析, 研究了气候变化背景下, 东北地区水稻生长季热量资源及冷害发生的变化规律。采用1961-2010年中国地面气温0.50×0.50格点数据, 提取东北三省359个格点的年代气温数值, 根据东北水稻延迟低温冷害气象行业标准(QX/T182-2013), 运用Arcgis地理信息技术和概率统计学方法, 对1981-2010年东北水稻冷害年代际时空分布及发生概率进行区划, 并结合1981-2010年中国气象灾害大典和时事报道中有关东北冷害记载进行对照分析。研究结果表明: 1960s-2000s东北水稻生长季5-9月年代际平均气温(T5-9)明显升高, 平均气温之和(∑T5-9)明显增加, T5-9≥15 ℃、≥20 ℃和∑T5-9≥83 ℃的区域面积扩大显著。平均气温之和距平(ΔT5-9)随年代由负值转为正值, 说明气候增温效应显著, 水稻冷害发生也随年代由多到少。受气候变暖影响, 东北水稻轻度、中度和严重冷害发生年份、分布区域和发生频率随年代发展都呈现显著减少趋势, 到2000s, 冷害集中到黑龙江北部、东南部局部地区和吉林东南部局部地区, 年频率也降低到0.1~0.2; 冷害发生年份和区域能够与历史冷害记载大体相符; 冷害的显著减少为东北近10年来的水稻丰产增收创造了十分有利条件, 但也需进一步提高对局部地区冷害防御的关注。

     

    Abstract: Rice production in Northeast China is critical especially for ensuring long-term food safety in our country. Thus strengthening research on agricultural meteorological disasters under climate change background is needed to avert the disadvantage of future climate change. This study analyzed the trend of change in heat resources based on three meteorological indicators during the May-September rice growth season under climate change. The indicators used included monthly mean temperature, total monthly mean temperature of May to September during 1961?2010 and anomaly of total mean temperature of May to September during 1981 2010 in Northeast China. By using 0.50E × 0.50N lattice data for ground temperature during 1961-2010, 359 grid points of temperature were extracted in the three provinces of Northeastern China. Based on meteorology industry standards of delayed chilling injury of rice in Northeast China (QX/T182-2013), ArcGIS platform and statistical methods were used to regionalize temporal and spatial distributions of rice chilling injury and probability of occurrence of rice chilling injury during 1981?2010 in Northeast China. Comparative analysis was also conducted on the results of chilling injury of rice with records from China Meteorological Disaster Authority (Heilongjiang, Jilin and Liaoning Volume) during 1981-2000 and on news report from the internet period after 2000. The results showed monthly mena temperature (T5-9) and total monthly mean temperature (∑T5-9) of May to September from 1960s to 2000s increased markedly, and the areas with T5-9≥15 ℃ and≥20 ℃, ∑T5-9≥83 ℃ enlarged too. The anomaly of total mean temperature of May to September (ΔT5-9) changed to positive gradually from negative. Climate change had significantly improved the quality of heat needed for crop growth, creating favorable conditions for rice production in Northeast China. The analyses showed that under the influence of climate warming, the regional distribution and occurrence frequency of mild, moderate and severe rice chilling injury exhibited significant decreasing trend during 1981-2000. In the 2000s, the mainly areas of rice chilling injury were concentrated in north and southeast Heilongjiang Province and southeast Jilin Province, with occurrence frequency range of 0.1-0.2. The occurrence years and regions of rice chilling injury in Northeast China during 1981-2010 were broadly in line with historical records. Significantly reduction in rice chilling injury induced very favorable conditions for abundant rice harvest in Northeast China in the recent decade. Irrespectively, there was need to pay further attention to rice chilling injury occurrence in localized areas of Northeast China in order to improve local defense measures.

     

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