气候变化对新疆红枣种植气候区划的影响

Impact of climate change on the division of jujube planting zones in Xinjiang

  • 摘要: 研究气候变化背景下新疆红枣气候区划的变化, 对适应气候变化, 充分合理地利用农业气候资源, 科学制定新疆红枣种植和发展规划, 促进新疆红枣产业的持续稳定发展具有重要意义。利用新疆101个气象站1961-2012年的历史气候资料, 使用线性趋势分析、累积距平和t-检验以及基于ArcGIS的混合插值法, 在对近52 年新疆≥10 ℃积温、冬季极端最低气温和6-7月平均气温时空变化进行分析的基础上, 结合红枣气候区划指标, 对气候变化背景下新疆红枣种植气候区划的变化进行了分析。研究结果表明: 1)新疆≥10 ℃积温、冬季极端最低气温和6-7月平均气温的空间分布总体呈现"南疆高、北疆低, 平原和盆地高、山区低"的格局。2)近52年新疆≥10 ℃积温、冬季极端最低气温和6-7月平均气温分别以62.22 ℃.d.10a 1、0.551 ℃.10a-1 和0.221 ℃.10a-1的倾向率呈显著上升趋势, 并分别于1997年、1982年和1994年发生了突变。受其影响, 1997年后新疆红枣适宜种植区面积增至5.05×105 km2, 较之前增加1.20×105 km2, 占新疆总面积比例增大7.3个百分点; 而次适宜种植区面积缩小4.0×104 km2, 占新疆总面积比例缩小2.4个百分点; 不适宜种植区面积缩小8.01×104 km2, 占新疆总面积比例缩小4.9个百分点。气候变化使新疆红枣适宜种植区面积明显扩大, 次适宜和不适宜种植区面积有所减小, 这种变化对促进新疆红枣产业的发展具有重要意义。

     

    Abstract: On the backdrop of climate change, changes in climatic zones of jujube planting in Xinjiang was studied. Of significant importance were adaptation to climate change, full rational use of agro-climatic resources, scientific planting of Xinjiang jujube, development planning and promotion of sustainable/stable development of Xinjiang jujube industry. Using long-term (1961 2012) climate data from 101 meteorological stations in Xinjiang region along with linear regression, cumulative anomaly, t-test and mixed spatial interpolation analyses in ArcGIS environment, the study analyzed the fundamental characteristics of spatio-temporal changes in ≥10 ℃ cumulative temperature, extreme minimum temperature in winter and mean temperature for June July. The impact of climate change on jujube planting zones was studied in relation to climate division index of jujube planting zones. The results showed that spatial distributions of ≥10 ℃ cumulative temperature, extreme minimum temperature and mean temperature for June July obviously varied from place to place in Xinjiang. Generally, these factors were higher in the south than in the north and in the plain/basin than in the mountain regions of jujube planting zones in Xinjiang. On the backdrop of global warming in the last 52 years, ≥10 ℃ cumulative temperature, extreme minimum temperature and mean temperature for June July showed significantly increasing trends by the tendency rate of 62.22 ℃.d.10a-1, 0.551 ℃.10a-1 and 0.221 ℃.10a-1, respectively, and with significant changes in 1997, 1982 and 1994. With this effect, suitable planting areas of jujube increased by 1.2 × 105 km2 after 1997, representing 7.3 percentage points increase in total area ratio. The areas with sub-suitability for planting jujube decreased by 4.0 × 104 km2, representing 2.4 percentage points decrease in total area ratio. Also areas classified as unsuitable for planting jujube decreased by and 8.0×104 km2, representing 4.9 percentage points decrease in total area ratio. While climate change increased the areas suitable for planting jujube, it decreased sub-suitable area and unsuitable areas for planting jujube in Xinjiang. This was critical for enhancing the development of jujube industry in Xinjiang.

     

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