1961-2001年间陕西冬小麦种植北界北移的热量资源分析与评价

Analysis and assessment of heat resource for winter wheat northward moving during 1961-2001 in Shaanxi Province

  • 摘要: 气候变暖使农作物种植北界发生了不同程度的北移。为研究冬小麦在陕北地区种植的适宜性, 本文选取了该地区榆林、绥德、横山、吴起和延安5个站点1961-2001年间40年的逐日温度数据进行整理分析, 研究该地区冬前积温、越冬期负积温、1月平均温度、生育期≥0 ℃积温和年极端最低温度等指标及变化情况, 通过热量指标评价陕西省冬小麦北移的可行性。结果表明, 陕北地区冬小麦越冬期负积温、1月平均温和生育期≥0 ℃积温都呈显著升高趋势, 其中, 越冬期负积温每10年升高36.2~71.7 ℃·d, 1月平均温度每10年升高0.32~0.61 ℃, 生育期≥0 ℃积温每10年升高44.1~88.7 ℃·d。此外, 年极端最低温也表现出升高趋势, 但不显著。而冬前积温在延安和吴起两站点分别以20.3 ℃·d·10a-1和16.1 ℃·d·10a-1的速率显著升高, 但榆林和绥德两站则有所下降。整体而言, 到2001年, 延安站各项气温指标都能满足北移冬小麦需要, 热量资源不会成为该地冬小麦北移的障碍; 吴起和绥德1月份平均温度偏低, 北移存在一定风险; 而榆林和横山因越冬期负积温和1月平均温度过低而存在较大风险, 不适合北移冬小麦的种植。

     

    Abstract: Global warming has caused northward moving of crop growth boundary. To determine the suitability of winter wheat in the northern region of Shaanxi Province, daily temperature data for 1961-2001 were collected from 5 stations (Yulin, Suide, Hengshan,Wuqi and Yan'an stations) in northern Shaanxi Province. The heat resource used in the study included the ≥0 ℃ accumulated temperature before winter, negative accumulated temperature during wintering, mean temperature in January, ≥0 ℃ accumulated temperature for the whole growth period and extreme low temperature. The results showed that ≥0 ℃ accumulated temperature before winter exceeded 400 ℃·d in all the stations. Only Yan'an station met the required minimum temperature of 450 ℃·d for negative accumulated temperature during winter. As temperature increased from year to year, negative accumulated temperature during winter in Suide and Wuqi stations in 1993 to 1994 reached threshold value of 450 ℃·d. For ≥0 ℃ accumulated temperature throughout the growth period, all the stations met the required 2 000 ℃·d. The only exception was Wuqi station, where ≥0 ℃ accumulated temperature was slightly below the threshold value. In terms of mean temperature of January (the coldest month of the year), frozen injuries were no longer a future in Yan'an station as mean temperature exceeded 6 ℃. In fact, mean temperatures for Suide and Wuqi stations were respectively 7.60 ℃ and 7.07 ℃. This suggested winter wheat survival rate of over 80%. In Yulin and Hengshan stations, however, mean temperatures of January were too low for wheat to grow. While the extreme low temperature value for winter wheat growth is 20 ℃, that for all the stations exceeded 17 ℃. This suggested that extreme low temperatures in all the stations were suitable for winter wheat growth. In northern Shaanxi Province, negative accumulated temperatures during winter period, mean temperature of January and ≥0 ℃ accumulated temperature for the whole growth period increased significantly throughout the investigated period. Negative accumulated temperature during wintering increased at the rate of 36.2~71.7 ℃·d·10a-1. For ≥0 ℃ accumulated temperature during the growth period, it was 44.1~88.7 ℃·d·10a-1 and 0.32~0.61 ℃·d·10a-1 for extreme low temperature. Accumulated temperature before winter increased significantly by 20.3 ℃·d and 16.1 ℃·d per decade respectively for Yan'an and Wuqi stations. It, however, showed no increase for Yulin and Suide stations. Extreme low temperature increased across the entire Northern Shaanxi Province, though not significantly. In conclusion, heat resource in Yan'an was already high enough by 2001 to support the growth of winter wheat. Winter wheat growth was also suitable in Wuqi and Suide stations, but with some extreme low temperatures in January. In Yulin and Hengshan stations, however, negative accumulated temperatures during wintering period and mean temperature in January were unfit for winter wheat growth.

     

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