西北干旱地区农业健康用水量计算模型研究

Health volume of agricultural water consumption and its calculation model in the Heihe River Basin

  • 摘要: 农业健康用水量的确定是西北干旱地区可利用水资源在农业与其他用水行业之间合理分配的基础。依据农业健康用水量的内涵和判别标准, 建立了西北干旱区农业健康用水量多目标分层优化计算模型。该模型以各业用水及总用水的综合效益最大为目标函数, 依据一定的优化次序计算区域农业健康用水量。并以黑河流域为例, 应用模型计算各县级行政单元过去年(1999年)、现状年(2006年)和未来年(2020年)在不同来水频率下的农业健康用水量。结果表明: 1999年、2006年和2020年水资源配置按模型计算结果重新调整后, 流域经济用水总量(包括农业与工业生产用水)所占比例分别降低2.7%、4.6%和2.1%, 而综合用水效益分别增加7.1%、16.6%和13.1%, 生态效益提高更为显著, 分别为27.6%、37.4%和13.6%, 证明了模型的可靠性与农业健康用水的可行性。对照不同水平年农业用水健康结果, 2006年较1999年、2020年较2006年农业实际用水状态均趋于健康, 流域农业用水比重分别下降3.4%和2.0%, 综合用水效益分别提高31.1%和91.6%。此外, 如果按照以往农业用水分配次序, 2020年在50%、75%和95%来水频率下, 可预测流域缺水率分别达到10.6%、13.8%和25.9%, 表明水资源将进一步趋紧, 需采用农业健康用水标准重新配置水资源, 达到有效降低缺水损失的最终目的。

     

    Abstract: With competition between agriculture and other industries in the northwest arid areas of China, determination of healthy volume of agricultural water consumption provides the basis for reasonable distribution of available water resources. Based on healthy agricultural water volume connotation and standard, a multi-objective optimization layer calculation model was developed for the northwest arid areas of China. The model achieved its objective function not only for maximum water consumptions in different industries, but also for total water consumption. It also successfully calculated the healthy volumes of agricultural water consumption in different areas under given optimization sequences. The model was successfully tested in calculating healthy volume of agricultural water consumption in the Heihe River Basin (HRB). For different county-level administrative units, the healthy volume of agricultural water consumption was evaluated under different water inflow frequencies for the past (1999), present (2006) and future (2020) years. The results show that model-adjusted water resources allocation in 1999, 2006 and 2020 reduced the basin water volume consumption (in the agricultural and industrial sectors) by 2.7%, 4.6% and 2.1%, respectively. Water benefit was comprehensively increased by 7.1%, 16.6% and 13.1% in 1999, 2006 and 2020, respectively. Similarly, ecological benefit respectively increased by 27.6%, 37.4% and 13.6% in the above periods. Not only was the model reliable, but the feasibility of healthy agricultural water consumption in the region increased. Comparisons of healthy agricultural water consumption among different years revealed that the water situation in the agricultural sector in 2006 was healthier than in 1999. Also the situation in 2020 was healthier than in 2006. While agricultural water use ratios reduced by 3.4% and 2.0%, water efficiency increased by 31.1% and 91.6%, respectively. Based on previous agricultural water distributions, the basin water deficit in 2020 was predicted at 10.6%, 13.8% and 25.9% under 50%, 75% and 95% of water inflow frequencies. It showed higher scarcity of water resources then. It was concluded that in order to meaningfully curb water shortage, water resources allocation should be adjusted based on healthy volumes of agricultural water consumption.

     

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