基于生产力可持续指数的耕地利用动态分析——以新疆生产建设兵团农三师45团绿洲灌区为例

Dynamic analysis of arable land use via productivity sustainable index — A case study of Farm 45 Irrigation Area of the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps

  • 摘要: 由于生态足迹、生态承载力和生态赤字都是绝对数字, 不能真正反映一个地区耕地利用的程度, 且不能进行不同地区的比较。本文在总结以往生态足迹分析方法的基础上, 提出“生产力可持续指数PSI”以定量评价耕地的可持续利用程度。PSI指一定区域的耕地生态承载力占生态足迹与生态承载力总额的比值, 它描述了该区域的耕地生产能力(生态承载力)满足人类对耕地供需矛盾总体(生态足迹+生态承载力)的可持续程度。PSI介于0~1之间, 当PSI趋近于1时, 耕地利用可持续程度很高; 当PSI趋近于0时, 属于极度不可持续状态; 当PSI为0.5时, 是可持续发展与不可持续发展的临界点。根据PSI远离0.5的程度, 可划分可持续程度的不同等级。采用此指数对新疆生产建设兵团农三师45团绿洲灌区1995~2005年时间序列上的耕地PSI计算结果表明: 1998~2003年间该区耕地利用为弱可持续状态, 其他时段为弱不可持续, 灌区可持续发展状况不容乐观。可见, 与传统的“生态赤字”绝对数值相比PSI指标表示可持续发展程度更具合理性。

     

    Abstract: Due to the nature of absolute data, ecological footprint, capacity and deficit cannot be used to reflect and compare regional sustainable use level of arable lands. Based on the theory and method of ecological footprint (EF), productivity sustainability index (PSI) is developed as a new indicator for quantitative evaluation of sustainable use of arable lands. The index is the ratio of ecological capacity to the total of ecological capacity and footprint of arable lands in a region. This describes the level of regional land productivity supply meeting ecological contradictions between arable land supply and human demand. PSI is in the range of 0 to 1. A high index indicates high sustainable development of land use in a region and vice versa. A PSI of 0.5 implies marginal sustainable development. Hence the level of sustainability of a region can be evaluated based on the distance of PSI to 0.5. In this paper therefore, the results of a case study of Farm 45 Irrigation Area of the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps for 1995~2005 show a weak sustainable level of arable land use for 1998~2003. The other years are simply not sustainable. This growth direction is not what we expect for ecological equilibrium. This shows that PSI is a more reasonable indicator than the absolute indicator of traditional sustainable level via ecological deficit.

     

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