中国有机农业的集聚与空间依赖性

Agglomeration and spatial dependence of organic agriculture in China

  • 摘要: 发展有机农业虽是实现农业绿色发展的重要途径,但需要公共部门政策支持。准确把握有机农业空间分布特征,检验其集聚及空间依赖性,为公共部门选择和设计政策提供决策依据。本文基于2013—2018年中国有机生产面积和有机认证数据,首先采用Jenks自然间断点分级法分析中国有机农业的空间分布;然后运用EG指数、产业集聚指数和区位熵判别有机农业集聚程度;最后采用Moran’s I指数检验有机农业发展的空间依赖性,结合局部Getis-Ord Gi*统计和标准差椭圆技术进一步探讨有机农业在局域的空间集聚与演化趋势。研究结果表明:1)中国有机农业空间分布不均匀,东北和西部地区有机生产面积占比和有机产品认证示范(创建区)有优势,而东部地区有机产品认证证书和获证企业数量居优势。2)中国有机农业的EG指数已超过0.05,有机农业集聚程度高;青海、内蒙古、宁夏、新疆和海南产业集聚指数和区位熵均大于1,显示这些省份的有机农业集聚优势明显。3)全局Moran’s I指数值大于0且逐年上升,显示毗邻省份的有机农业存在空间正依赖性;有机农业热点区主要在西部和东北部地区,冷点及次冷点在中东部地区且呈现扩展趋势;标准差椭圆分析显示中国有机农业方向分布和重心均呈现先东北再西部的发展趋势。中国有机农业集聚逐年显著的原因是多方面的,除适宜于有机农业发展的自然资源禀赋外,公共部门政策、集聚效应和空间依赖性亦是重要驱动力。本文的政策启示是:支持生态环境良好的经济欠发达地区发展有机农业可能更可取;有机农业集聚区的政府可以通过进一步的支持政策,提升区域内有机农业集中度,形成集聚与扩散的良性循环;毗邻有机农业集聚区的区域可以利用集聚区的外溢效应,促进发展有机农业;公共部门采用瞄准型政策可能比普惠性政策更能促进有机农业发展。

     

    Abstract: Although organic agriculture is an important way to realize the green development of agriculture, the supported policies from the public sectors are necessary. It is important to accurately grasp the spatial distribution of organic agriculture in China as well as test the agglomeration and spatial dependence of organic agriculture in China for the public sectors to design policies. Assuming that agglomeration and spatial dependence do matter in organic agriculture distribution, this paper explored the localization and spatial clusters of organic agriculture in China on a provincial level from 2013 to 2018. Firstly, we use Jenks natural break class to analyze the spatial distribution of organic agriculture in China. Then, we use EG index, location entropy and industrial agglomeration index to analyze the agglomeration of organic agricultural. Finally, Moran's I index is used to check the spatial dependence, the hot/cold spot analysis based on the local Getis-Ord Gi* statistics and standard deviation ellipse method are used to discuss the local spatial agglomeration pattern and evolution trend furtherly. The results show that: 1) the organic agriculture has not been expanded evenly across China instead concentrating in certain regions, based on the proportion of organic production area and organic product certification demonstration area, Northeast and western regions have advantages; while based on the organic product certification and organic certified enterprises, the eastern region has advantages. 2) the EG index of organic agriculture in China is greater than 0.02 and has exceeded 0.05 after 2016, which indicates the high degree of agglomeration in China's organic agriculture. The industrial agglomeration index and location entropy of Qinghai, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Xinjiang and Hainan are all greater than 1, which indicates that these provinces have obvious agglomeration advantages in organic agriculture. 3) The global Moran's I is greater than zero and increases year by year, which indicates that there exists the positive spatial dependence among the provinces adjacent to each other. The hot spots of organic agriculture mainly expanded from northeast to west, the cold spots and sub-cold spots spread in the middle and eastern region. The distribution and center of gravity of organic agriculture showed a trend from northeast to west. There are various reasons for the remarkable agglomeration of organic agriculture in China. In addition to the location factors such as the regional favorable climate and policy, agglomeration effect and spatial dependence are also considered important in determining spatial distribution of organic agriculture. Potential policy implication should include a concentration of development measures for organic farming in certain regions. It may be better to support the development of organic agriculture in underdeveloped areas with good ecological environment. Regions with agglomeration advantages in organic agriculture, the government can enhance the concentration degree of organic agriculture through further supporting policies, and form a virtuous circle of agglomeration and diffusion. Places adjacent to the agglomeration regions benefit from the spillover effects to achieve the promotion of organic agriculture. Targeted policies from the public sectors may be more conducive to the development of organic agriculture than inclusive policies.

     

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