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四川柑橘适宜分布及其对气候变化的响应研究

林正雨 陈强 邓良基 李晓 何鹏 熊鹰

林正雨, 陈强, 邓良基, 李晓, 何鹏, 熊鹰. 四川柑橘适宜分布及其对气候变化的响应研究[J]. 中国生态农业学报(中英文), 2019, 27(6): 845-859. doi: 10.13930/j.cnki.cjea.180983
引用本文: 林正雨, 陈强, 邓良基, 李晓, 何鹏, 熊鹰. 四川柑橘适宜分布及其对气候变化的响应研究[J]. 中国生态农业学报(中英文), 2019, 27(6): 845-859. doi: 10.13930/j.cnki.cjea.180983
LIN Zhengyu, CHEN Qiang, DENG Liangji, LI Xiao, HE Peng, XIONG Ying. Response of suitable distribution of citrus in Sichuan Province to climate change[J]. Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture, 2019, 27(6): 845-859. doi: 10.13930/j.cnki.cjea.180983
Citation: LIN Zhengyu, CHEN Qiang, DENG Liangji, LI Xiao, HE Peng, XIONG Ying. Response of suitable distribution of citrus in Sichuan Province to climate change[J]. Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture, 2019, 27(6): 845-859. doi: 10.13930/j.cnki.cjea.180983

四川柑橘适宜分布及其对气候变化的响应研究

doi: 10.13930/j.cnki.cjea.180983
基金项目: 

国家自然科学基金项目 71603178

四川省软科学计划项目 2018ZR0196

四川省财政创新能力提升工程 2018QNJJ010

详细信息
    作者简介:

    林正雨, 主要研究方向为农业资源利用与区域农业发展研究。E-mail:1456875524@qq.com

  • 中图分类号: F323.2;P467

Response of suitable distribution of citrus in Sichuan Province to climate change

Funds: 

the National Natural Science Foundation of China 71603178

the Soft Science Project of Sichuan Province 2018ZR0196

the Financial Innovation Ability Enhancement Project of Sichuan Province 2018QNJJ010

More Information
  • 摘要: 柑橘是四川省和我国主要水果产品之一。以气候为主的环境变化,对作物空间布局产生了显著影响。为合理优化柑橘生产空间,本研究基于最大熵模型(MaxEnt)构建柑橘适宜分布与环境变量的关系模型,运用受试者工作特征曲线(ROC曲线)检测模型精度,刀切法(Jackknife)筛选主导环境变量;采用ArcGIS技术对比1980年、2010年四川柑橘适宜区分布,揭示近30 a气候变化背景下四川省柑橘适宜区的分布与变化情况。结果显示:四川柑橘适宜性的主导环境变量主要体现为以光、热、水为特征的气候环境变量。近30 a四川省气候暖干化的变化趋势改变了区域生态系统的结构和功能,引起了柑橘种植适宜区的时空变化。1980—2010年柑橘种植适宜性空间格局呈现出2个变化特征,一是高适宜区呈整体向北迁移的趋势,主要分布在成都平原区与川东北地区过渡地区;中适宜区界线向东南方迁移。二是适宜性级别呈现出逐级调整,低、中适宜区的等级调整变化明显。2010年高适宜区面积约为4.22万km2,中适宜区4.19万km2,低适宜区4.4万km2,大部分地区为不适宜区。以高适宜区为参照,通过政策措施,政府部门可增加在川南地区、成都平原地区南部的柑橘生产布局。本研究客观地反映了气候变化下,四川省柑橘种植适宜性变化特征,合理确定了柑橘适宜性面积及分布,为柑橘空间优化提供了科学依据。最大熵模型在对物种分布进行准确模拟和预测时具有较强应用价值,对作物气候适宜性区划具有重要指导意义。但对于不同区域和作物应选取合适的环境变量、空间尺度和物种采样位置,减少系统累计误差,提高作物气候适宜区划定精度。
  • 图  1  四川省地理分区图

    Figure  1.  Geographical regions map of Sichuan Province

    图  2  四川省柑橘分布、土壤样点及气象台站分布

    Figure  2.  Distribution of citrus, soil samples and meteorological stations in Sichuan Province

    图  3  1980年和2010年初始环境变量对四川省柑橘分布的贡献度(AUC)

    Figure  3.  Contribution rates (AUC) of initial environmental variables affecting distribution of citrus in Sichuan Province in 1980 and 2010

    The meaning of the abbreviate in the figure was shown in the table 1.

    图  4  1980年(a)和2010年(b)四川省年日照时数分布与变化

    Figure  4.  Distribution of annual sunshine duration in Sichuan Province in 1980 (a) and 2010 (b)

    图  5  1980年(a)和2010年(b)四川省年均温度分布

    Figure  5.  Distribution of annual average temperature of Sichuan Province in 1980 (a) and 2010 (b)

    图  6  1980年(a)和2010年(b)四川省最热月均温分布

    Figure  6.  Distribution of July average temperature of Sichuan Province in 1980 (a) and 2010 (b)

    图  7  1980年(a)和2010年(b)四川省年降雨量分布

    Figure  7.  Distribution of annual precipitation of Sichuan Province in 1980 (a) and 2010 (b)

    图  8  1980年(a)和2010年(b)四川省无霜期分布

    Figure  8.  Distribution of frost-free period of Sichuan Province in 1980 (a) and 2010 (b)

    图  9  1980年(a)和2010年(b)四川省柑橘适宜区空间分布

    Figure  9.  Spatial distribution of suitable areas for citrus in Sichuan Province in 1980 (a) and 2010 (b)

    表  1  影响柑橘适宜分布的初始环境变量

    Table  1.   Initial environmental variables affecting suitable distribution of citrus

    类别
    Category
    初始环境变量
    Initial environmental variables
    代码
    Code
    变量意义
    Variable significance
    气候类
    Climate
    年日照时数Annual sunshine duration sun 影响柑橘的光合作用Affecting the photosynthesis of citrus
    年平均气温Annual average temperature ta 反映年总的热量情况Reflecting the total annual heat
    ≥0 ℃积温
    Accumulated temperature ≥0 ℃
    att0 作物生长期内适宜的热量资源
    Suitable heat resource during crop growing period
    ≥10 ℃积温
    Accumulated temperature ≥10 ℃
    att10 喜温植物生长期内的累积热量
    Accumulated heat of a thermophilic plant during its growth
    ≥10 ℃持续天数
    ≥10 ℃ lasting days
    att10d 喜温植物生长期温度强度的持续时间
    Duration of temperature intensity during the growth of a thermophilic plant
    最热月平均气温
    July average temperature
    julyta 气温过高(≥38 ℃)将抑制柑橘生长
    Excessive temperature (≥38 ℃) will inhibit citrus growth
    无霜期Frost-free period ffp 柑橘生长时期的长短Affect the growth time of citrus
    年温差
    Annual temperature difference
    tad 一年中月平均温度的变化幅度
    Variation of the monthly mean temperature
    最冷月平均气温
    January average temperature
    janta 柑橘能否安全越冬
    Wintering conditions for citrus
    年降水量
    Annual precipitation
    pre 年总的水分条件
    Total annual moisture conditions
    秋季降水量
    Autumn precipitation
    preaut 7—9月的水分供应情况, 影响柑橘果实的大小
    Precipitation from July to September affects the size of citrus fruit
    花期日均温
    Average daily temperature of flowering
    fpta 4—5月日均温, 影响柑橘基础产量
    Average daily temperature from April to May affects the yield of citrus
    土壤类
    Soil
    有机质
    Organic matter
    om 影响柑橘树基础产量、果实品质
    Affecting the base yield and fruit quality of citrus
    pH pH 偏酸(pH < 4.8)和偏碱(pH > 8.5)不适于柑橘生长
    Neither pH < 4.8 nor pH > 8.5 is suitable for citrus growth
    全氮
    Total nitrogen
    tn 氮肥与转化糖、还原糖、维生素C呈正相关, 与总酸度呈负相关
    Nitrogen fertilizer is positively correlated with invert sugar, reducing sugar and vitamin C, and negatively correlated with total acidity
    全磷
    Total phosphorus
    tp 磷肥能降低果实酸度, 提高固酸比
    Phosphate fertilizer can reduce fruit acidity and improve solid-acid ratio
    全钾
    Total potassium
    tk 钾肥可以提高单果重, 增加果皮厚度, 提高可溶性固形物含量, 减少裂果发生
    Potassium fertilizer can increase single fruit weight, peel thickness, soluble solid content and reduce cracking
    黏粒含量Clay content clay 影响到土壤的保肥供肥、通气排水能力, 间接影响柑橘生长
    Affecting fertilizer supply, ventilation and drainage, and indirectly affecting citrus growth
    粉粒含量Silt content silt
    砂粒含量Sand content sand
    地形类
    Topography
    坡度
    Slope
    slope 山坡地的排水通气性良好, 易形成逆温层有利于柑橘生长
    Drainage and ventilation of slope land is good, easy to form inversion layer, conducive to citrus growth
    坡向
    Aspect
    aspect 直接影响光照、降水等因素, 并影响到柑橘产量、外型和品质
    Yield and quality of citrus are indirectly affected by the redistribution of light and precipitation
    海拔
    Elevation
    dem 通过温度间接影响柑橘生长
    Indirectly affecting citrus growth by affecting temperature
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  2  1980年和2010年初始环境变量对四川省柑橘分布的相对贡献度

    Table  2.   Relative contribution rates of initial environmental variables to the distribution of citrus in Sichuan Province in 1980 and 2010

    初始环境变量
    Initial environmental variable
    相对贡献度Relative contribution rate (%) 变化幅度
    Amplitude of alteration (%)
    1980 2010 均值Mean value
    海拔Elevation 76.60 67.80 72.20 11.49
    年日照时数Annual sunshine duration 9.00 5.30 7.15 41.11
    年平均气温Annual average temperature 4.10 5.20 4.65 26.83
    年降水量Annual precipitation 2.80 5.80 4.30 107.14
    坡度Slope 1.80 2.10 1.95 16.67
    ≥0 ℃积温Accumulated temperature ≥0 ℃ 1.70 0.00 0.85 100.00
    最热月平均气温July average temperature 1.20 8.30 4.75 591.67
    粉粒含量Silt 1.20 0.00 0.60 100.00
    无霜期Frost-free period 0.60 2.80 1.70 366.67
    年温差Annual temperature difference 0.40 0.20 0.30 50.00
    ≥10 ℃持续天数≥10 ℃ lasting days 0.20 0.10 0.15 50.00
    黏粒含量Clay 0.20 1.10 0.65 450.00
    最冷月平均气温January average temperature 0.10 0.00 0.05 100.00
    pH 0.10 0.00 0.05 100.00
    坡向Aspect 0.00 0.00 0.00
    全氮Total nitrogen 0.00 0.20 0.10
    秋季降水量Autumn precipitation 0.00 0.10 0.05
    全钾Total potassium 0.00 0.20 0.10
    花期日均温Average daily temperature of flowering 0.00 0.00 0.00
    砂粒含量Sand content 0.00 0.50 0.25
    ≥10 ℃积温Accumulated temperature ≥10 ℃ 0.00 0.00 0.00
    全磷Total phosphorus 0.00 0.40 0.20
    有机质Organic matter 0.00 0.00 0.00
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  3  1980年和2010年四川省不同区域不同类型柑橘适宜区的面积变化

    Table  3.   Area variation of different citrus suitable areas in different regions of Sichuan Province in 1980 and 2010

    104km2
    区域
    Region
    市州
    City
    不适宜区
    Non-suitable area
    低适宜区
    Low suitable area
    中适宜区
    Middle suitable area
    高适宜区
    High suitable area
    1980 2010 变化
    Change
    1980 2010 变化
    Change
    1980 2010 变化
    Change
    1980 2010 变化
    Change
    成都平原区
    Chengdu Plain Region
    成都市
    Chengdu
    0.19 0.28 0.09 0.28 0.24 -0.04 0.51 0.43 -0.08 0.23 0.26 0.03
    德阳市
    Deyang
    0.11 0.13 0.02 0.23 0.30 0.07 0.23 0.14 -0.09 0.04 0.03 -0.01
    绵阳市
    Mianyang
    1.15 1.27 0.12 0.65 0.70 0.05 0.22 0.05 -0.17 0.00 0.00 0.00
    眉山市
    Meishan
    0.06 0.06 0.00 0.05 0.05 0.00 0.15 0.09 -0.06 0.45 0.52 0.07
    资阳市
    Ziyang
    0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.56 0.57 0.01 0.23 0.22 -0.01
    川东北地区
    Northeast Sichuan Region
    南充市
    Nanchong
    0.00 0.00 0.00 0.43 0.35 -0.08 0.68 0.71 0.03 0.13 0.19 0.06
    遂宁市
    Suining
    0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.05 0.03 0.39 0.43 0.04 0.12 0.05 -0.07
    达州市
    Dazhou
    0.53 0.56 0.03 0.46 0.42 -0.04 0.47 0.46 -0.01 0.19 0.21 0.02
    广安市
    Guang’an
    0.01 0.00 -0.01 0.09 0.07 -0.02 0.29 0.27 -0.02 0.24 0.28 0.04
    巴中市
    Bazhong
    0.59 0.59 0.00 0.48 0.54 0.06 0.15 0.09 -0.06 0.00 0.00 0.00
    广元市
    Guangyuan
    1.26 1.17 -0.09 0.36 0.45 0.09 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00
    川南地区
    South Sichuan Region
    自贡市
    Zigong
    0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.03 0.00 0.40 0.40 0.00
    内江市
    Neijiang
    0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 -0.01 0.09 0.13 0.04 0.43 0.40 -0.03
    泸州市
    Luzhou
    0.10 0.09 -0.01 0.44 0.43 -0.01 0.15 0.15 0.00 0.53 0.54 0.01
    宜宾市
    Yibin
    0.05 0.07 0.02 0.27 0.28 0.01 0.28 0.32 0.04 0.72 0.64 -0.08
    乐山市
    Leshan
    0.39 0.38 -0.01 0.25 0.25 0.00 0.14 0.15 0.01 0.48 0.48 0.00
    川西北地区
    Northwest Sichuan Region
    阿坝州
    Aba
    8.25 8.26 0.01 0.01 0.00 -0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
    甘孜州
    Ganzi
    15.05 15.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
    攀西山地区
    Panxi Region
    攀枝花市
    Panzhihua
    0.74 0.74 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
    雅安市
    Ya’an
    1.18 1.14 -0.04 0.19 0.22 0.03 0.13 0.15 0.02 0.02 0.01 -0.01
    凉山州
    Liangshan
    5.98 5.96 -0.02 0.03 0.04 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00
    合计
    Total
    35.66 35.78 0.11 4.25 4.40 0.15 4.47 4.19 -0.28 4.20 4.22 0.02
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  4  1980—2010年四川省柑橘适宜区转移矩阵

    Table  4.   Transfer matrix of suitable areas for citrus in Sichuan Province from 1980 to 2010

    km2
    2010
    不适宜区
    Non-suitable area
    低适宜区
    Low suitable area
    中适宜区
    Middle suitable area
    高适宜区
    High suitable area
    总计
    Total
    1980 不适宜区Non-suitable area 354 162.10 2 618.73 0.37 356 781.20
    低适宜区Low suitable area 3 816.55 36 274.24 2 414.26 0.59 42 505.63
    中适宜区Middle suitable area 1.05 5 146.21 36 334.38 3 281.45 44 763.09
    高适宜区High suitable area 3.14 3 131.72 38 929.07 42 063.93
    总计Total 357 979.69 44 042.31 41 880.73 42 211.12 486 113.85
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  5  1980年和2010年四川省不同区域不同类型柑橘适宜区面积及2015年柑橘生产面积

    Table  5.   Areas of different citrus suitable areas in 1980 and 2010 and production areas in 2015 in different regions of Sichuan Province

    104km2
    区域
    Region
    不适宜区
    Non-suitable area
    低适宜区
    Low suitable area
    中适宜区
    Middle suitable area
    高适宜区
    High suitable area
    2015柑橘面积
    Production area in 2015
    1980 2010 1980 2010 1980 2010 1980 2010
    成都平原区
    Chengdu Plain Region
    1.51 1.74 1.22 1.29 1.66 1.28 0.94 1.02 0.12
    川东北地区
    Northeast Sichuan Region
    2.40 2.33 1.83 1.89 1.99 1.96 0.69 0.73 0.07
    川南地区
    South Sichuan Region
    0.55 0.55 0.97 0.97 0.69 0.79 2.56 2.46 0.08
    川西北地区
    Northwest Sichuan Region
    23.31 23.31 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
    攀西山地区
    Panxi Region
    7.90 7.85 0.22 0.26 0.13 0.15 0.02 0.01 0.01
    合计
    Total
    35.66 35.78 4.25 4.40 4.47 4.19 4.20 4.22 0.28
    下载: 导出CSV
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  • 收稿日期:  2018-11-07
  • 录用日期:  2019-02-17
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