全球变化背景下南方丘陵区农业生态系统适应性时空演变特征研究——以衡阳盆地为例

Spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of agro-ecosystem adaptability response to global change in South China hilly regions: A case study of Hengyang Basin

  • 摘要: 生态系统适应性已成为全球变化与发展的热点问题。生态系统适应性演变是全球变化区域响应的重要表现。我国南方丘陵区是典型的稻作农业区,研究其农业生态系统适应性十分重要。文章以衡阳盆地为例,从自然、社会、经济3个方面选择12个指标构建农业生态系统适应性评价指标体系,评价单元分为衡阳市区及其各县域,以1999-2014年共16年为研究时域,用熵权法确定指标权重,计算衡阳盆地的适应能力指数。结果表明:衡阳盆地农业生态系统适应性总体状况较好,其空间分异较复杂,耒阳市的适应能力最强,祁东县次之,常宁市最弱。时间演变表现为波动上升的特点,评价时域16年分为3阶段:1999-2004年为适应性小幅度振荡的低值阶段,2005-2010年为适应性显著波动总体上升阶段,2010-2014年为适应性快速上升阶段。研究结论可为研究区农业可持续发展提供借鉴。

     

    Abstract: There is renewed interest in the evolution of the adaptability of ecosystem to global change. It is important to study rice farming regions in hilly areas of Hengyang Basin. As a rice-based agricultural region, it is very important to study the adaptability of agricultural ecosystem (AAE) in South China. Previous studies have shown that in Hengyang Basin, a typical agricultural ecosystem in South China, obvious spatial distribution patterns of AAE were higher in periphery regions and lower in the middle regions of the basin. However, the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of AAE were not completely clear. This research used Hengyang Basin as a case study to build the evaluation index system consisting of 12 indicators ranging from natural to social and then to economic aspects. The evaluation unit consisted of Hengyang Basin and the surrounding counties. The AAE index for Hengyang Basin was calculated using an entropy method and 16 years of data (1999-2014) to determine index weight. The results showed that a complex and highly different spatio-temporal variations in AAE in Hengyang Basin for the different counties and different years. However, the range of the AAE index for the eight counties (cities) in the basin was 0.249 8-0.679 4, which indicated a medium and high AAE level in the region. In the eight counties (cities), Leiyang City had the highest AAE, followed by Qidong County, and Changning County was the weakest. The coefficients of variation for the different counties (cities) showed that change in AAE was highest for Changning City and lowest for Hengnan County for the period 1999-2014. There was a wave-like trend in AAE for Leiyang City with rises and falls. The evaluated 16 years was divided into three periods-the period 1999-2004 was the period of low index and small amplitude oscillation, the period 2005-2010 was the one of an overall rise with significant fluctuation in adaptability, and then the period 2010-2014 was the period of rapid rise AAE index. The conclusions in this study provided a useful reference to guide sustainable agricultural development in the hilly regions of South China.

     

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