台湾地区农业面源污染的环境库兹涅茨曲线验证与分析
Authentication and analysis of Environmental Kuznets curve for agricultural non-point source pollution in Taiwan Region
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摘要: 环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)假说认为环境压力和经济增长之间呈倒U形关系, 但目前也有研究指出环境压力和经济发展之间还出现了同步关系、U型关系和N型关系及反N型关系。为了研究台湾地区农业面源污染与经济发展水平之间的关系, 以该区化学农药使用密度、畜禽养殖化学需氧量(COD)产生量、氮肥(折纯)及磷肥(折纯)使用密度为因变量, 人均实质GDP为自变量, 运用R软件进行环境库兹涅茨曲线验证。分析结果显示, 台湾地区农药使用密度与人均实质GDP的关系不符合EKC曲线、拐点不存在; 畜禽养殖COD产生量与人均实质GDP的关系符合EKC曲线的倒U形, 在20世纪90年代中期经过拐点, 现处于倒U形右侧中部; 氮肥、磷肥使用密度与人均实质GDP的关系均符合EKC曲线的倒U形, 分别在20世纪90年代初期和80年代初期经过拐点, 现均处于倒U形右侧下部。结果表明, 随着经济发展水平的提高, 台湾地区畜禽养殖和化肥污染程度均呈现先上升后下降趋势, 目前已得到有效控制, 经济发展对它们产生了较强的正向影响; 但化学农药使用量并未随着经济的发展而变化, 它长期居高不下, 因而发展替代性生物农药将是控制化学农药污染的主要方向和重点任务。Abstract: Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis is a presumption that environmental degradation follows an inverted U-shaped trajectory in relation to economic growth. The thorny question of whether economic growth has a cure of environmental degradation has sparked large-scale empirical studies in the last decade, whose conclusions has been mixed at present. In this paper, the EKC model was used to verify whether relationship between agricultural non-point source pollution and economic development in Taiwan Region has an inverted U-shaped curve. Input density of chemical pesticide, input density of nitrogen and phosphorus fertilizers, chemical oxygen demand (COD) output of livestock and poultry’s manure and urine were selected as indicators of agricultural non-point source pollution (the dependent variables). Then per-capita real GDP was used as the indicator of economic growth (the independent variable). The results showed that the relationship between input density of chemical pesticides and per-capita real GDP was not fitted the typical EKC characteristics and also without any turning point. The relationship between COD output of livestock and poultry’s manure and urine and per-capita real GDP was typically fitted an inverted U-shaped curve with a turning point falling in the mid-1990s. The relationship between input density of nitrogen fertilizer and per-capita real GDP had typical EKC characteristics with the turning point falling in early 1990s, while the relationship between input density of phosphorus fertilizer and per-capita real GDP had typical EKC characteristics with the turning falling in early 1980s. The results suggested that with the development of economy, pollution due to breeding of livestock and poultry and chemical fertilizers application initially increased and then dropped. Economic development had a positive effect on pollution due to breeding of livestock and poultry and chemical fertilizers application, but now, the pollution had been under control. While the consumption of chemical pesticides in Taiwan Region had always been very high, economic development had no significant effect on input density of chemical pesticides. According to Maslow’s hierarchy of needs, people’s requirement for environmental protection had been becoming stronger with economic development. During the 1980s to 1990s, breeding quantity of livestock in Taiwan Region was limited. However, the breeding mode and treatment of livestock and poultry manure and urine had improved considerably over time. Thus COD output of livestock and poultry’s manure and urine had dropped. Meanwhile, soil pollution by chemical fertilizers had long been known and therefore mostly replaced by organic manure and green manure without a significant effect on crop yield. This had steadily reduced the input density of chemical fertilizers in Taiwan Region. As the climate and geography of Taiwan favor biological diversification, there is always severe pest and disease damage in the region. Although pollution from chemical pesticides is well known, the consumption of chemical pesticides in Taiwan Region has still not changed. Thus high efficiency and low residue is the main direction of study on the use of chemical and biological pesticides.