气候变暖对烤烟气候适生性和大田可用日数的影响

Effect of global warming on climate feasibility index and available field days of flue-cured tobacco

  • 摘要: 为了研究气候变暖对毕节烟区烤烟及大田可用天数的影响, 利用毕节烟区1971-2010年的气候资料, 分析近40年来毕节烟区气候的变化趋势及特点、烤烟气候适生性指数(CFI)和大田可用天数与温度的关系及变化趋势。结果表明: 毕节烟区年均温一直呈比较平稳的上升趋势, 增幅为 0.38 ℃ 10a-1; 毕节烟区近40年年均降雨量为1 047.78 mm, 大田期年均降雨量为527.03 mm, 大田期降雨量随着气候变暖而逐渐减少; 毕节烟区近40年年均日照时数为1 318.20 h, 大田期年均日照时数为632.70 h, 大田期年均日照时数也随着气候变暖而逐渐减少; 1971-2010年间毕节烟区年平均CFI为0.62, 且呈逐年上升趋势。日均温≥13 ℃初日随着气候变暖一直在提前, 40年间提前了将近30 d, 平均为7.5 d 10a-1; 日均温≥18 ℃终日随着气候变暖一直在滞后, 近40年间烤烟采收终期延后了27 d, 平均为6.75 d 10a-1; 40年间烤烟大田可用日数也一直随年均温呈平稳增加趋势, 近40年间共增加了58 d, 增幅为14.5 d 10a-1。气候变暖导致毕节烟区降雨量减少、日照时数变短, 但烤烟CFI随之升高, 有利于烤烟的生长, 同时气候变暖导致毕节烟区烤烟的大田可用日数增加。

     

    Abstract: In order to study the effects of global warming on the adaptability of flue-cured tobacco and available field days in Bijie tobacco-growing region, climate date for 1971?2010 in Bijie tobacco-growing region were used to analyze the trend and characteristics of climate change in the last 40 years. The analysis determined climate feasibility index (CFI) of flue-cured tobacco, the relationship between available field days and temperature and the trends of change in these factors. The results showed that average annual temperature in Bijie tobacco-growing region steadily increased at 0.38 ℃ 10a-1. The average annual rainfall in the last 40 years in Bijie tobacco-growing region was 1 047.78 mm, with 527.03 mm during tobacco growing period. Average annual sunshine duration in Bijie tobacco-growing region in the last 40 years was 1 318.20 h, with 632.70 h during tobacco-growing period. Sunshine duration gradually decreased during 1971-2010 in Bijie tobacco-growing region due to global warming. CFI increased gradually from 1970 to 2010, with a average annual CFI of 0.62. The start of period with average daily temperature ≥13 ℃ occurred early by about 30 d (average of 7.5 d 10a-1) during the 40 years. Then the end day of period with average daily temperature ≥18 ℃ (which is the harvest stage of flue-cured tobacco) delayed by about 27 d (average of 6.75 d 10a-1) after 40 years of global warming. The trend in flue-cured tobacco available field days in the last 40 years steadily increased by 58 d (an increase of 14.5 d 10a-1) with increasing annual average temperature. Although global warming reduced rainfall and shortened the sunshine duration in Bijie tobacco-growing region, CFI of flue-cured tobacco increased. This was conducive for the proper growth of flue-cured tobacco due to increasing available field days in the Bijie tobacco-growing region.

     

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