近44年天山北坡三种典型农作物水分利用效率及因素分析

Analysis of water use efficiency and factors of three typical crops in the Northern Tianshan Mountains in the past 44 years

  • 摘要: 定量评估农作物水分利用效率(Crop Water Use Efficiency, CWUE)的长期变化对于优化农业水资源利用与提高农业生产效率至关重要。本研究选取新疆天山北坡玛纳斯河绿洲农业区的三种典型农作物——棉花、玉米、冬小麦作为研究对象, 基于该流域内乌兰乌苏农业气象站1980~2023年的农业气象长期观测资料, 综合运用相关分析、趋势分析、地理探测器多种统计方法, 阐明三种典型农作物CWUE的长期变化趋势, 并解析气象因素与管理措施对CWUE的贡献度。结果表明: 近44年来, 该流域三种典型农作物单产呈增长趋势, 蒸散量呈先增加后降低的趋势, CWUE则经历从不显著变化到快速提升的过程。其中棉花与玉米CWUE在覆膜滴灌(LD)阶段增加趋势最大(年增长率分别为0.022kg·m-3·a-1、0.281kg·m-3·a-1), 冬小麦CWUE在无膜滴灌(ND)阶段增加趋势最大(年增长率为0.094kg·m-3·a-1)。管理措施对CWUE的贡献度高于气象因素, 其对棉花、玉米、冬小麦CWUE的贡献度分别为63.02%、61.75%、58.86%。在气象因素中, 棉花CWUE主要受≥0℃积温影响, 而日照时长对玉米与冬小麦CWUE贡献更大。本研究可为新疆天山北坡农业水资源高效利用和粮食安全提供科学数据支撑。

     

    Abstract: It is essential for optimizing the use of agricultural water resources and improving agricultural production efficiency to quantitative assessment of long-term trends in Crop Water Use Efficiency (CWUE). Taken three typical crops (cotton, maize and winter wheat) of the oasis agricultural area of the Manas River Basin on the Northern Tianshan Mountains in Xinjiang as the research objects, based on the long-term agricultural meteorological observation data of the Wulanwusu Agricultural Meteorological Station in the basin from 1980 to 2023, this study clarified the long-term trends of CWUE of the three typical crops by using correlation analysis, trend analysis and geographic detector statistical methods, and analyzed the contribution rate of meteorological factors and management measures to CWUE. The results show that in the past 44 years, the unit yield of the three typical crops in the basin have shown an increasing trend, and the evapotranspiration has increased first and then decreased, The change of CWUE is from a non-significant change to a rapid improvement. The CWUE of the cotton and maize increase the most significantly in mulching film and drip irrigation(LD) stage(the annual growth rates are 0.022kg·m-3·a-1, 0.281kg·m-3·a-1, respectively), and the CWUE of winter wheat increase the most in the non-film and drip irrigation(ND) stage (the annual growth rate is 0.094kg·m-3·a-1). The effect of management measures on CWUE is more than that of meteorological factors, and the contribution rates of CWUE to cotton, corn and winter wheat are 63.02%, 61.75% and 58.86%, respectively. Among the meteorological factors, the CWUE of cotton is mainly affected by Accumulated Temperature Above 0℃, while the Sunshine Duration contribute more to the CWUE of corn and winter wheat. This study will provide a scientific data support for the efficient utilization of agricultural water resources and food security in the Northern Tianshan Mountains.

     

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