中国粮食生产环境影响时空过程

Spatiotemporal dynamics of environmental impacts from food production in China

  • 摘要: 中国正面临着粮食安全与农业可持续发展之间的权衡与协调,从多个方面量化粮食生产的可持续性变化并反馈政策实施效果至关重要。本文综合采用遥感专题、统计调查、模型模拟等多源数据,评估了中国粮食生产中四项关键环境指标,包括农业灌溉用水、氮和磷养分盈余量以及温室气体排放量,并进行环境影响综合度量。结果表明,从2010至2020年,随着农作物千卡产量的增加(+23%),灌溉用水量(+15%)也在增加,但氮(−14%)、磷盈余(−15%)以及温室气体排放(−8%)呈现下降趋势。并且环境指标强度(单位千卡产量的指标值)及其综合影响(−14%)均有所下降。虽然粮食生产综合环境影响已呈现缓解趋势,但综合环境影响显著的区域差异凸显了局部环境压力的复杂性。本研究可为农业可持续发展区域差别化政策的制定提供科学依据。

     

    Abstract: China is confronting trade-offs and the need for harmonization between food security and sustainable agricultural development. It is crucial to quantify changes in the sustainability of food production from multiple perspectives and assess the effectiveness of policy implementation. This study integrates data from various sources, including remote sensing, statistical surveys, and model simulations, to evaluate four key environmental indicators of crop production in China: water usage for irrigation, nitrogen and phosphorus surpluses, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. A comprehensive assessment of the environmental impacts is provided. The results indicate that from 2010 to 2020, crop kcal yield increased by 23%, accompanied by a 15% rise in irrigation water usage. However, nitrogen and phosphorus surpluses decreased by 14% and 15%, respectively, while GHG emissions declined by 8%. The intensity of these environmental indicators per kcal yield and their combined impact also decreased by 14%. Despite the overall mitigation of environmental impacts, significant regional differences highlight the complexity of localized environmental pressures. This study offers a scientific foundation for developing regionally differentiated policies to promote sustainable agricultural development.

     

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