农业数字化对农业经济韧性的影响

Impact of agricultural digitization on the economic resilience of agriculture

  • 摘要: 农业数字化是农业农村现代化发展的必然选择, 是推动农业经济韧性提升的重要动力。本文基于2012—2022年中国30个省(自治区、直辖市, 不包括西藏自治区和中国香港、澳门、台湾地区)的面板数据, 构建农业数字化与农业经济韧性的综合评价指标体系, 并使用熵值法测算二者的发展水平, 在此基础上构建双向固定效应模型、调节效应模型与门槛效应模型, 实证检验农业数字化对农业经济韧性的影响机制。研究发现: 农业数字化能够促进农业经济韧性水平的提升, 且在粮食主产区的促进作用比在非粮食主产区显著, 在东部地区的促进作用比在中部和西部地区显著; 农村居民消费结构升级强化了农业数字化对农业经济韧性的促进效应; 数字普惠金融对农业数字化促进农业经济韧性的提升存在门槛效应。综上, 本文提出充分发挥农业数字化对农业经济韧性的赋能作用、基于农业数字化对农业经济韧性影响的区域异质性因情施策、强化农村居民消费结构升级的调节作用和大力发展数字普惠金融等建议, 以期提升农业经济韧性水平, 助力农业高质量发展。

     

    Abstract: Agricultural digitization is an inevitable choice for the modernization of agriculture and rural areas, and is an important driving force in promoting the economic resilience of agriculture. Using panel data from 30 provinces in China (autonomous regions and municipalities, excluding the Xizang Autonomous Region, Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) from 2012 to 2022, a comprehensive index system for evaluating the agricultural digitization and the economic resilience of agriculture was constructed, and the development level of both was estimated using the entropy method. On this basis, bidirectional fixed-effect, adjustment effect, and threshold effect models were constructed to empirically test the influence of digitization on the economic resilience of agriculture. The following observations were made: First, the improvement of agricultural digitization can promote improvement of its economic resilience, with the promotion effects of agricultural digitization being higher in major grain-producing areas than in non-major grain-producing areas as well as in the eastern regions than that in the central and western regions. Second, the consumption structure upgradation of rural residents has strengthened the promotion effect of agricultural digitalization on the economic resilience of agriculture. Third, the digital inclusive finance has a threshold effect on the improvement of agricultural digitization to promote the economic resilience of agriculture. In summary, to improve the economic resilience of agriculture and facilitate its high-quality development, decision makers should consider paying attention to the enabling effect of agricultural digitalization on the economic resilience of agriculture as well as the regional heterogeneity of such impact, strengthening the moderating effect of the consumption structure upgradation of rural residents, and vigorously developing digital inclusive finance.

     

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