赣州市柑橘低温冻害综合风险评估与区划

Comprehensive risk assessment and zoning of low-temperature freezing damage for citrus in Ganzhou

  • 摘要: 为因地制宜开展柑橘低温冻害风险管理, 优化种植布局, 基于气象灾害风险形成机制, 利用气象数据、赣南柑橘种植区分布数据、统计数据和农业生产数据, 构建危险性、暴露度、脆弱性和防灾减灾能力指数, 以及综合风险指数模型, 对赣州市柑橘越冬期低温冻害进行综合风险评估与区划。结果表明: 1)柑橘低温冻害危险性表现为中部低和由中部向东北、西南升高的特性, 高危险性区主要集中在武夷山脉和九连山脉附近地区, 包括赣州市东部的宁都、石城、瑞金、会昌东部和南部的全南东南部。2)赣州市柑橘果园主要集中分布于东北部、东南部及南部地区。高脆弱性区集中在赣州市西部的崇义、中偏南部的安远和信丰以及南部的全南。低防灾减灾能力区主要位于赣州市东北部的宁都和石城、西部的上犹、中偏南部的安远和中部的章贡。3)柑橘低温冻害综合风险表现为东北部和东南部高、中部和中偏南部低的特性。柑橘低温冻害综合风险高风险区主要位于宁都大部、石城、瑞金、安远和全南。综合风险区划结果具有较好的可靠性和实用性, 对柑橘种植规划具有一定指导意义。

     

    Abstract: This research evaluated the comprehensive risk of low-temperature freezing damage during the wintering period, so as to provide scientific basis for carrying out meteorological disaster risk management and optimizing planting layout of citrus according to local conditions. Based on the mechanism of meteorological disaster risk formation, hazard, exposure, vulnerability, disaster prevention and mitigation ability indices were constructed using meteorological data, distribution data of citrus planting areas in southern Jiangxi, citrus statistical data, and agricultural production data to conduct comprehensive risk assessment and zoning of low-temperature freezing damage during the wintering period for citrus in Ganzhou City. The results indicated that the hazard of low-temperature freezing damage for citrus showed a characteristic of being low in the middle and increasing from the middle to the northeast and southwest. High-risk areas were mainly concentrated in the areas near Wuyi Mountains and Jiulian Mountains, including Ningdu, Shicheng, Ruijin, and eastern Huichang in eastern Ganzhou and southeastern Quannan in southern Ganzhou. Citrus orchards in Ganzhou were mainly concentrated in the northeastern, southeastern, and southern areas, and the largest citrus planting area as well as its proportion in each county (district) were in Xunwu and Anyuan in southeastern Ganzhou. High vulnerability areas were concentrated in Chongyi in western Ganzhou, Anyuan and Xinfeng in central southern Ganzhou, and Quannan in southern Ganzhou. Low disaster prevention and mitigation ability areas were mainly located in Ningdu and Shicheng in northeastern Ganzhou, Shangyou in western Ganzhou, Anyuan in central southern Ganzhou, and Zhanggong in central Ganzhou. The comprehensive risk of low-temperature freezing damage for citrus was characterized by high risk in the northeastern and southeastern areas, and low risk in the central and central southern areas. The low comprehensive risk areas of low-temperature freezing damage for citrus were mainly located in Longnan, western Dingnan in southern Ganzhou, Xinfeng, Huichang in central southern Ganzhou, western Yudu, most of Ganxian, Nankang, Zhanggong in central Ganzhou, and Dayu in western Ganzhou. The high comprehensive risk areas were mainly located in most of Ningdu, Shicheng, Ruijin, Anyuan, and Quannan. The comprehensive risk zoning results in this research had good reliability and practicality, and had certain directive significance for design of citrus planting.

     

/

返回文章
返回