重庆市农业投入品碳排放特征、影响因素及脱钩分析

Characteristics, influencing factors and decoupling analysis of carbon emissions of agricultural inputs in Chongqing

  • 摘要: 农业投入品在使用过程中会产生碳排放, 分析农业投入品碳排放特征与影响因素, 对农业绿色发展、助推“双碳”目标的实现具有重要意义。作为重要的农业发展区域, 重庆市在农业生产活动中使用大量农业投入品。基于2013—2022年《重庆市统计年鉴》和《中国农业年鉴》对重庆市农业投入品量、粮食产量、耕地面积、粮食作物播种面积、农村人口数以及各类GDP的数值进行整合, 采用经典碳排放理论研究重庆市农业生产过程中投入品碳排放量及其动态变化态势, 运用对数均值迪氏分解法(logarithmic mean divisia index, LMDI)模型和Tapio脱钩模型探讨农业生产投入品碳排放的影响因素与脱钩效应, 为农业投入品碳减排提供科学支撑。结果表明: 1)2013—2022年重庆市农资投入碳排放总量为452.01万~482.70万t CO2-eq, 化肥与灌溉是碳排放的主要来源, 占比分别为31.01%和39.48%。2)重庆市农作物单位播种面积碳排放、单位产量碳排放、单位产值碳排放以及单位耕地面积碳排放与基期相比均呈下降态势, 且单位耕地面积碳排放与单位播种面积碳排放变化趋势基本一致。3)农资投入与种植结构影响碳排放量, 农业生产效率、地区产业结构及农村人口数等因素对农业碳减排具有正向作用, 农业产业结构调整、地区经济发展水平和劳动力水平是重庆市碳排放量增加的主要原因。4)重庆市农业投入品碳排放与经济增长的脱钩状态主要表现为弱脱钩向强脱钩转变。农业经济增长逐渐摆脱对高碳排放的依赖, 实现了相对绿色发展。基于以上结果, 本文针对重庆市农业投入品碳减排提出以下建议: 政府应加快研发精准施肥、节水灌溉和智能化设备等绿色农业技术, 调整农业产业结构, 推动有机农业和生态农业发展。同时, 要提高农民环保意识和低碳生产能力, 发挥投入品碳排放驱动因素抑制作用。

     

    Abstract: Chongqing Municipality is an important agricultural development area, and a large number of agricultural inputs are used in agricultural production activities. Carbon emissions occur during the use of agricultural inputs. Analyzing the characteristics and influencing factors of carbon emissions of agricultural inputs in Chongqing is of great significance for green agricultural development and promoting the achievement of the "dual carbon" goals. Based on the Chongqing Statistical Yearbook and China Agricultural Yearbook for 2013-2022, the number of agricultural inputs, grain output, cultivated land area, sown area of grain crops, rural population and various GDP values of Chongqing were integrated, and the classical carbon emission calculation theory was used to study the carbon emission of inputs and its dynamic change in the process of agricultural production in Chongqing from 2013 to 2022. The logarithmic mean divisia index (LMDI) model and Tapio decoupling model were used to explore the influencing factors and decoupling effects of agricultural input carbon emissions, providing scientific support for agricultural input carbon reduction. The results showed that: (1) In the past 10 years, the number of agricultural inputs in Chongqing showed an increasing trend before 2015, and showed a decreasing trend after 2015. The total carbon emissions from agricultural inputs in Chongqing have fluctuated within the range of 452.01 to 482.70 million t CO2-eq, and reached the lowest in 2021. Fertilizer and irrigation were the main sources of carbon emissions, accounting for 31.01% and 39.48% of carbon emissions respectively. (2) Compared with the base period, carbon emissions per unit sown area, unit output, unit output value and unit cultivated land area of Chongqing have all shown a downward trend, and the trend of carbon emissions per unit cultivated land area was basically consistent with that of carbon emissions per unit sowing area. (3) Both the changes of agricultural inputs and agricultural planting structure had an impact on agricultural carbon emissions. The input of agricultural inputs and planting structure affected carbon emissions, while factors such as agricultural production efficiency, regional industrial structure, and rural population had a positive effect on agricultural carbon reduction. The adjustment of agricultural industrial structure, regional economic development level and labor force level were the main reasons for the increase of carbon emissions in Chongqing. (4) The decoupling state between input carbon emissions from agricultural inputs and economic growth in Chongqing was mainly manifested as a transition from weak decoupling to strong decoupling. Agricultural economic growth has gradually got rid of the dependence on high carbon emissions, achieving relatively green development. The findings of this study provide recommendations for Chongqing’s decision-making on the carbon emissions reduction of agricultural inputs. The government should speed up the research and development of green agricultural technologies such as precision fertilization, water-saving irrigation and intelligent equipment, adjust the structure of the agricultural industry, and promote the development of organic agriculture and ecological agriculture. At the same time, farmers' environmental awareness and low-carbon production capacity should be improved. And exerting the inhibition effect of agricultural production efficiency, regional industrial structure and rural population scale on the carbon emissions of agricultural inputs in Chongqing.

     

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