甘南黄河水源补给区畜牧业碳排放驱动因素及脱钩效应分析

Driving factors and decoupling effects of animal husbandry carbon emissions in the Yellow River water supply area of Gannan

  • 摘要: 为探究“双碳”目标下畜牧业碳排放驱动因素及脱钩效应, 采用LMDI模型分解碳排放的驱动因素, 借助Tapio脱钩模型解析各驱动因素与畜牧业碳排放之间的脱钩关系, 并检验其脱钩努力。结果表明: 1) 2000—2022年, 甘南黄河水源补给区畜牧业碳排放量在50.926万~118.736万t变化, 年均增长率为1.72%。玛曲县、夏河县、碌曲县等纯牧业县畜牧业碳排放量占主要地位。2)经济发展、人口规模是畜牧业碳排放增加的重要推力, 并以“U”型趋势演变; 畜牧业强度、产业结构与城镇化是畜牧业低碳化发展主要因素。3)畜牧业生产强度、城镇化因素有利于碳排放脱钩, 经济发展、人口增长因素则主要表现出碳排放脱钩的抑制效应, 大部分年限畜牧业生产结构因素表现出对碳排放脱钩的促进作用。4)考察期内, 畜牧业产业结构以及畜牧业生产效率对应的分脱钩努力指数大部分时期为正, 说明二者为目前是补给区畜牧业碳排放“脱钩”与否的关键因素。最后, 建议从高碳生产方式转变、产业结构优化、低碳畜牧业生产技术创新等方面鼓励传统畜牧业的低碳绿色转型, 助力补给区畜牧业的生态合理化发展。

     

    Abstract: In order to investigate the driving factors and decoupling effect of carbon emission from livestock industry under the goal of “double carbon”, the LMDI model was used to decompose the driving factors of carbon emission, and the Tapio decoupling model was used to analyse the decoupling relationship between the driving factors and carbon emission from livestock industry, and to test the decoupling efforts. The results show that: 1) From 2000 to 2020, the carbon emissions from animal husbandry in the Yellow River water recharge area of Gannan varied from 50.926×104−118.736×104 t, with an average annual growth rate of 1.72%. Maqu County, Xiahe County, Luqu County and other purely pastoral counties livestock carbon emissions accounted for the main position. 2) Economic development, population size is an important driving force for the increase in carbon emissions from animal husbandry, and the evolution of the "U" trend; intensity of animal husbandry, industrial structure and urbanization are the main factors in the development of low-carbon animal husbandry. 3) Intensity of animal husbandry production, urbanization factors are conducive to carbon decoupling, economic development and population growth factors mainly show the inhibitory effect of carbon decoupling, and most of the years the livestock production structure factors show the promotional effect of carbon decoupling. 4) During the investigation period, the sub-decoupling effort indexes corresponding to the industrial structure of the livestock industry and the efficiency of the livestock industry were positive in most of the periods, which means that the two are the main factors for the "decoupling" of the carbon emissions of the livestock industry in the recharge zone. "decoupling" or not. Finally, it is recommended to encourage the low-carbon green transformation of the traditional animal husbandry industry in terms of the transformation of the high-carbon production mode, the optimization of the industrial structure, and the technological innovation of low-carbon animal husbandry production, so as to help the ecologically rational development of the animal husbandry industry in the recharge zone.

     

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