云南省弥勒市景观生态风险与碳储量服务的变化 评估
Assessment of changes in landscape ecological risk and carbon sequestration services in Mile City, Yunnan Province
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摘要: 土地利用变化往往会对景观生态风险和碳储量产生显著影响。以弥勒市作为典型山地城市代表, 选取2000年、2010年和2020年土地覆盖数据, 通过应用景观生态风险评价和InVEST模型, 定量评估景观生态风险和碳储量的空间异质性及其演变趋势, 并进一步结合经济社会数据, 采用PLUS、SPSS、GeoDa等模型, 模拟探讨弥勒市在不同时期内, 其景观生态风险(变化)和碳储量(变化)的相关性及空间集聚特征。结果表明: 1) 2000—2020年研究区景观生态风险水平呈上升趋势, 研究区北部主要为较低、中风险区, 而南部则以较高、高风险区为主, 且面积持续增加并向东北部及东南部集聚; 2) 2000—2020年弥勒市固碳服务总体呈北—东高、西北—中低的分布格局, 20 a间整体碳储量及碳汇经济价值呈下降趋势; 3)除耕地保护情景外, 其他发展情景的碳储量及碳汇经济价值均呈增长态势, 其中生态保护情景显著增加, 而耕地保护情景下景观生态风险等级恶化区域面积最大; 4) 2000—2010年景观生态风险与碳储量在数量及空间上均呈显著负相关关系, 2010—2020年由负转正, 在空间集聚模式上以高风险-低碳储量、低风险-高碳储量聚类为主, 分布于北部及中部。研究表明区域景观生态风险对固碳服务具有负效应, 未来应重点关注处于高风险—高碳储量的东部林地, 针对性地制定生态保护和管理策略, 保障生态系统在经济增长中得到可持续的固碳服务及风险缓解。Abstract: Changes in land use often impact landscape ecological risk and carbon storage. Taking Mile City as a representative of typical mountainous cities, this study selected the land cover data in 2000, 2010 and 2020 to quantitatively assess the spatial heterogeneity and evolution trends of landscape ecological risk and carbon storage. This assessment was conducted through the application of landscape ecological risk assessment and the InVEST model. Additionally, economic and social data were incorporated into the analysis, and models such as PLUS, SPSS, and GeoDa were utilized to simulate and explore the correlations and spatial agglomeration features of landscape ecological risk (change) and carbon storage (change) over different periods of time. The results showed that: 1) The landscape ecological risk in the study area increased from 2000 to 2020, with northern regions being low risk and medium risk zones, while southern regions were either high risk or extremely high risk zones, this pattern continued to increase in size and clusters in the northeast and southeast regions; 2) The carbon sequestration services in Mile City from 2000 to 2020 showed high-values in the north-east regions and low values in the northwest-central regions. Over 20 years, the overall carbon storage and economic value of carbon sinks decreased; 3) Except for cropland protection scenario, carbon storage and the economic value of carbon sinks increased. This was especially true in the ecological protection scenario where the size of the regions showed deteriorated landscape ecological risk and reached the largest level under the cropland protection scenario; 4) There was a significant negative correlation between landscape ecological risk and carbon storage, both in terms of quantity and space from 2000 to 2010. The correlation changed from negative to positive from 2010 to 2020, with spatial clusters of high risk - low carbon storage and low risk - high carbon storage, which were distributed in the northern and central regions. This study demonstrates that landscape ecological risk has a negative effect on carbon sequestration services. In the future, attention should be given to the eastern forest land with high risk - high carbon storage, so as to formulate targeted ecological protection and management strategies. These efforts could ensure that the ecosystems will enjoy sustainable carbon sequestration services and risk mitigation in the course of economic growth.