Abstract:
The Chishui River Basin, located in southern Guizhou Province, serves as a critical water conservation area. Evaluating the spatial and temporal trends of landscape ecological risks and analyzing the primary driving factors are essential for maintaining ecological security and promoting sustainable development within the basin. This study focusesd on the Guizhou section of the Chishui River Basin, utilizing land use data to assess and analyze the spatiotemporal characteristics of landscape ecological risks. Geographic detector methods were employed to identify the drivers of these risks. The results indicated that: 1) Forest land was the predominant landscape type, concentrated in the lower reaches of the basin. Cultivated land occupied a significant portion of the basin's total area, with contiguous patches appearing predominantly in the northeastern region. Construction land had shown an increasing trend, particularly in Renhuai City, where it is mainly distributed in liquor industrial parks. Unused land and water areas remained relatively small with minimal spatial changes, while grassland is scattered throughout the basin with insignificant changes. 2) From 2000 to 2020, the landscape ecological risks in the study area were primarily categorized as medium-risk. The basin features typical karst and Danxia landforms with steep terrain, whereas the areas along the Chishui river have relatively flat topography and abundant biological resources. Human activities along the river have led to high levels of interference. High-risk areas were mainly concentrated along the Chishui river, characterized by dense populations, relatively flat terrain, and economic development. Over time, high-risk areas have decreased in Jinsha County and Qixingguan District, while in Renhuai City, they have shifted from south to north, primarily within liquor industrial parks. Low-risk and medium-low-risk areas were predominantly found in the northern and southern parts of the basin, characterized by forested vegetation, rich natural resources, limited economic activities, and stable landscape ecosystems. 3) In terms of landscape ecological risk changes, 60% of the regional landscape ecological risk levels remained unchanged, indicating stable ecosystem conditions. Initially, the landscape ecological risk increased before decreasing, with areas of reduced risk being more concentrated near the Chishui River. Areas with increased risk were less common and mainly distributed in urban areas of Xishui County, Chishui City, tourist zones, Renhuai City, airports, and wine industry parks. Regions without notable changes in risk levels, characterized by better natural ecological environments, were located in the northeastern part of the basin and central-eastern Qixingguan District. 4) The variations in landscape ecological risk within this basin are influenced by multiple factors. Both human interference related to socio-economic conditions and average annual precipitation associated with natural elements significantly impact landscape ecological risk in this region; moreover, these driving factors exhibited nonlinear relationships characterized by dual enhancement effects.