重庆三峡库区农业碳排放脱钩效应及驱动因素

Decoupling effects and drivers of agricultural carbon emissions in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area of Chongqing

  • 摘要: 在“双碳”目标背景下, 探究重庆三峡库区农业碳排放特征及其驱动因素, 可为库区低碳农业发展提供科学依据。采用联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)的因子法测算2015—2022年重庆三峡库区农业碳排放量, 系统分析库区农业碳排放量和强度时空分异特征, 利用Tapio脱钩模型分析库区农业碳排放量与农业经济增长的脱钩关系, 并进一步运用LMDI (Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index)模型解析库区农业碳排放驱动因素。结果表明: 重庆三峡库区农业碳排放总量整体呈波动降低趋势, 农业碳排放总量从2015年的645.89万t降低至2022年的620.74万t, 库区农业碳排放主要来源为农田土壤碳排放和畜禽养殖碳排放。库区农业碳排放强度总体呈下降趋势, 各区县间碳排放强度差距逐渐缩小。2015—2022年库区农业经济与农业碳排放量脱钩关系整体上呈脱钩关系。随着农业生产的恢复与发展, 农业产值增长, 农业碳排放量增加。 脱钩关系以2019年为节点表现为由强脱钩向弱脱钩转变。农业生产效率、农业人口规模、农业产业结构对库区农业碳排放量的增长具有抑制作用, 而农业经济规模对农业碳排放量的增长则具有促进作用。基于以上结果, 本文提出减少禽畜养殖业碳排放量、控制农田土地利用碳排放量和发挥农业碳排放驱动因素抑制作用等相关建议, 以期为库区低碳农业发展提供理论依据。

     

    Abstract: Under the background of carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals, exploring the characteristics of agricultural carbon emission and its driving factors in Chongqing Three Gorges Reservoir Area can provide scientific basis for the development of low-carbon agriculture in the reservoir area. Using the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) carbon emission factor measurement method, The agricultural carbon emissions in Chongqing Three Gorges Reservoir Area during 2015-2022 were calculated, the temporal and spatial differences of agricultural carbon emissions and agricultural carbon emission intensity in Chongqing Three Gorges Reservoir Area were systematically analyzed, and the decoupling relationship between agricultural carbon emissions and agricultural economic growth in Chongqing Three Gorges Reservoir Area was analyzed using the Tapio decoupling model. Furthermore, the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) model is applied to analyze the driving factors of agricultural carbon emission in the Three Gorges reservoir area of Chongqing. The results show that: The total agricultural carbon emission in Chongqing Three Gorges Reservoir Area showed an overall trend of fluctuation reduction, and the total agricultural carbon emission decreased from 6.4589 million tons in 2015 to 6.2074 million tons in 2022. The main source of agricultural carbon emission in Chongqing Three Gorges Reservoir Area was carbon emission caused by soil utilization in the process of crop planting. Carbon emissions from enteric fermentation and manure management processes in livestock and poultry farming. The agricultural carbon emission intensity in the Three Gorges Reservoir area of Chongqing showed a decreasing trend, and the gap of carbon emission intensity among the districts and counties in the Three Gorges Reservoir area of Chongqing gradually narrowed. The decoupling relationship between agricultural economic growth and agricultural carbon emissions in the Three Gorges Reservoir area of Chongqing from 2015 to 2022 shows a decoupling relationship on the whole. With the recovery and development of agricultural production, the total value of agricultural production has increased, and agricultural carbon emissions have rebounded. The decoupling relationship between agricultural economic growth and agricultural carbon emissions changes from strong decoupling relationship to weak decoupling relationship with 2019 as the node performance. Factors such as agricultural production efficiency, agricultural population scale and agricultural industrial structure inhibit the growth of agricultural carbon emissions in the Three Gorges Reservoir area of Chongqing, while agricultural economic scale factors promote the growth of agricultural carbon emissions. Based on the above results, this paper puts forward relevant suggestions such as focusing on reducing carbon emissions from livestock and poultry farming, controlling carbon emissions from farmland soil utilization, and exerting the inhibition effect of agricultural production efficiency, agricultural population size and agricultural industrial structure on agricultural carbon emissions in Chongqing Three Gorges Reservoir Area, hoping to provide theoretical basis for the development of low-carbon agriculture in Chongqing Three Gorges Reservoir Area.

     

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