东北三省粮食生产绿水亏缺时空变化

Temporal and spatial changes of green water deficit for grain production in the three provinces of Northeast China

  • 摘要: 为了量化东北三省绿水资源对粮食生产的满足程度, 本文基于东北三省2001—2020年的气象数据和作物数据, 利用Penman-Monteith公式计算了东北三省水稻、玉米、大豆全生育期及关键生育期的绿水亏缺量及粮食生产绿水亏缺总量。结果表明: 1)全生育期尺度上, 水稻始终表现为绿水亏缺; 玉米枯水年绿水亏缺, 丰水年盈余; 大豆仅个别年份绿水亏缺。绿水亏缺量的空间分布呈明显的地形差异, 平原区绿水亏缺, 山区绿水盈余。2)关键生育期尺度上, 水稻、玉米和大豆分别有80%、85%和50%的年份出现绿水亏缺, 亏缺量为20~60 mm。其中, 水稻和大豆绿水亏缺量的高值区集中于平原地区, 玉米几乎全域表现为绿水亏缺。3)粮食生产绿水亏缺总量的年际差异较大, 丰水年年均亏缺总量不足65亿m3, 枯水年超过200亿m3; 受粮食种植规模的影响, 松嫩平原和三江平原是绿水亏缺总量的高值区。本文的研究结果可为东北三省农业灌溉的高效管理提供科学支撑, 促进东北三省水-粮关系协调发展。

     

    Abstract: Due to the increase in cropping area and the proportion of water-intensive crops, the contradiction between the water supply and demand of water resources for grain production has been exacerbated in the three provinces of Northeast China (NEC). Green water, as the main water resource for grain production in NEC, plays a pivotal role in alleviating the water-grain contradiction. Here, we quantified the green water deficit (GWD) of major grain crops (rice, corn, and soybean) in NEC at multiple spatial and temporal scales, based on the meteorological data and crop data for the period 2001-2020 using the Penman-Monteith equation. The results show that the GWD of rice ranges from 50 to 125 mm in wet years and exceeds 230 mm in dry years, and it reaches to almost 400 mm in dry years in Songnen Plain and Sanjiang Plain, which are the highest GWD regions for rice. Green water supply for corn is sufficient in wet years but insufficient in dry years, with an average deficit of 70 mm. And spatially, the GWD is smaller in the mountainous regions while larger in the plains, with a decreasing trend in the plains. The green water supply for soybean is relatively adequate, and only the southern Songnen Plain and the southwestern Liaohe Plain may have a deficit of about 100 mm in dry years. We also analyzed the GWD at key growth stages of each crop to characterize the seasonal GWD. In general, rice, corn, and soybean have GWD in the critical water demand periods in 80%, 85%, and 50% of the years, respectively, with GWD ranging from 20 to 60 mm annually. It is worth noting that the critical water demand for corn is also its most severe GWD period, indicating the adverse impact on corn yield will possibly be higher as it is mainly a rain-fed crop in NEC. The most severe GWD period for rice is tillage stage, with an average annual deficit of about 70 mm, but this deficit can be compensated by blue water irrigation. The maximum seasonal GWD of soybean occurs during the maturity stage, which is lower sensitive to GWD. Therefore, seasonal GWD will have the greatest effect on corn yield. The interannual, seasonal, and regional differences in GWD are significant, and the total amount of GWD (TGWD) will further increase in consideration of the planting scale. For example, the average TGWD in dry years is 20 billion m3 and is 6.5 billion m3 in wet years, respectively. The Songnen Plain has the largest TGWD, ranging from 1.5 to 2.0 billion m3, followed by the Sanjiang Plain, where the TGWD is nearly 0.5 billion m3. Overall, the contradiction between water supply and demand is lower in the mountainous regions and higher in the plains, where crops are widely distributed. Therefore, the contradiction between water supply and demand in plains will put continuous pressure on water resources in NEC. The results of this study can promote the understanding of water-crop relationship and provide scientific information for agricultural water management in NEC.

     

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