气候变暖背景下江西省稻油轮作模式中的水稻种植结构变化
The change of rice planting structure in rice-oilseed rape rotation mode in Jiangxi Province under the background of climate change
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摘要: 为解决江西省在大力发展油菜过程中出现的稻油争地问题, 本文利用江西省85个气象站1961—2022年气象资料, 研究了气候变暖背景下稻油轮作模式中水稻种植结构和双季稻熟性搭配的变化特征, 重点关注了2011—2022年水稻种植结构和双季稻熟性搭配。研究结果表明: 在保证油菜正常生长的情况下, 1) 油菜收获日期(水稻移栽)南北差异大, 南部收获(水稻移栽)早, 北部收获(水稻移栽)晚。在气候变暖条件下, 油菜收获日期(水稻移栽)整体呈提前的趋势, 2011—2022年较20世纪60年代提前13 d, 赣南地区(即赣州)油菜收获时间为4月上旬, 九江为5月上旬, 其他地区为4月中下旬; 赣南大部分地区水稻移栽时间为4月中旬, 赣北赣中大部为4月下旬—5月上旬; 2) 1961—1990年, 一季稻、再生稻和双季稻种植区域变化不大; 1991年开始, 再生稻和双季稻种植北界往北推进, 江西省一季稻种植范围逐渐缩小, 再生稻和双季稻种植范围逐渐扩大; 2011—2022年, 吉安南部和赣南可种植双季稻, 赣北南部和赣中大部可种植再生稻, 其余地区可种植一季稻; 3) 1991年开始, 双季稻各熟性搭配的北界一直向北推移, 2011—2022年, 早熟+早熟品种搭配种植区域分布在吉安南部和抚州南部边缘, 早熟+中熟品种搭配区域分布在赣南北部, 早熟+晚熟或中熟+中熟品种搭配区域分布在赣南中南部。本研究结论可为江西省水稻和油菜的均衡发展提供决策参考, 同时也利于气象部门针对性地做好稻油轮作生产模式下的气象服务。Abstract: Expanding oilseed rape production in winter fallow fields in Jiangxi has recently been promoted vigorously to satisfy the rapidly growing demand for edible vegetable oil in China; however, the phenomenon of rice and winter oilseed rape competing for land has emerged in different areas in the actual development process. This study investigated the changing characteristics of rice planting structure and double-season rice maturity collocation against the background of climate change and focused on the combination of rice planting structure and double-season rice maturity collocation from 2011 to 2022 by considering the number of days required for agricultural activities, such as oilseed rape harvesting and rice transplanting, in actual rice-oilseed rape rotation mode using meteorological data from 85 meteorological stations in Jiangxi Province from 1961 to 2022. Under conditions of ensuring the normal growth of oilseed rape, the results showed that: 1) The harvest date of oilseed rape (rice transplanting) was different from north to south, which was early in the south and late in the north, and showed an advancing trend that was 13 days earlier from 2011 to 2022 than that in the 1960s under the background of climate warming. After 2011, oilseed rape were harvested in early April in southern Jiangxi, in early May in Jiujiang, and in middle and late April in other regions of the study area. The date of rice transplanting was middle April in most of the southern Jiangxi, and it was from late April to early May in northern and central Jiangxi. 2) The planting areas of single-season rice, ratooning rice, and double-season rice showed little change from 1961 to 1990; however, at the beginning of 1990s, the northern boundary of ratooning rice and double-season rice advanced to the north, and the planting area of single-season rice gradually shrank, whereas the planting area of ratooning and double-season rice gradually expanded under conditions of ensuring normal growth of oilseed rape. After 2011, double-season rice was grown in the south of Ji’an and southern Jiangxi, and ratooning rice was planted in the southern part of northern Jiangxi and most of central Jiangxi. Single-season rice was planted in the rest of Jiangxi. 3) Since 1991, the northern boundary of maturity collocation of double-season rice has moved northward. After 2011, the combination of early- and early-maturing varieties could be planted in the south of Ji’an and the southern edge of Fuzhou, the combination of early- and medium-maturing varieties could be planted in the north of southern Jiangxi, and the combination of early- and late-maturing varieties or medium- and medium-maturing varieties could be planted in the central and southern parts of southern Jiangxi. The results can provide a reference for the balanced development of rice and oildseed rape, and also help meteorological departments to improve the meteorological service of the rice-oilseed rape rotation mode in Jiangxi Province.