农业数字化对化肥利用效率影响的实证研究
An empirical study on the impact of agricultural digitalization on fertilizer utilization efficiency
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摘要: 提高化肥利用效率是促进化肥施用减量的重要途径, 而农业数字化为持续提高化肥利用效率提供了新的思路。本文基于全国30个省(直辖市、自治区, 不包括西藏自治区、香港、澳门和台湾) 2012—2021年的面板数据, 分别采用全局参比的非期望产出SBM模型和熵值法对化肥利用效率和农业数字化水平进行测度。经过测算, 化肥利用效率均值为50%左右, 农业数字化水平均值为0.122, 农业数字化发展相对较弱, 仍需加强政策支持力度。在此基础上, 利用面板Tobit模型、中介效应模型实证分析农业数字化对化肥利用效率的影响及其作用路径。结果显示: 2019年以来我国农业数字化发展较快, 但发展水平存在明显的区域差异, 东部地区高于全国平均水平, 中西部地区低于全国水平。基准回归结果表明, 农业数字化在1%的水平上显著提高了化肥利用效率, 且经过内生性处理及稳健性检验后, 结论依然成立。机制检验发现, 农业数字化通过扩大农地经营规模、促进农业社会化服务发展以及绿色技术使用来提升化肥利用效率。异质性分析表明, 农业数字化在非粮食主产区与西部地区对化肥利用效率具有显著的正向影响, 但在粮食主产区、东部和中部地区影响不显著。因此, 应继续通过农业数字化发挥改善化肥使用效率的积极作用, 大力推进农村地区数字基础设施建设, 提高数字技术在农业农村的应用水平, 激励数字农业企业进行技术创新与推广, 从而促进农村地区农业数字化转型; 完善土地交易平台, 促进农业社会化服务发展, 加强绿色技术的推广和培训, 为更好地发挥中介作用提供动力; 加大对西部地区农业数字化发展的支持力度, 因地制宜探索适合的农业数字化技术。Abstract: Improving the efficiency of fertilizer use is an important way to reduce its use. Agricultural digitalization provides a new perspective for continuously improving fertilizer use efficiency. Based on panel data from 30 provinces (municipalities and autonomous regions, excluding Xizang Autonomous Region, Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan) in China from 2012 to 2021, this study used a non-expected output SBM model with a global reference and entropy method to measure the efficiency of fertilizer use and the level of agricultural digitalization. After calculation, the average efficiency of fertilizer use was around 50%, and the average level of agricultural digitalization was 0.122. The level of agricultural digitalization was relatively weak, and more policy support was needed. This study used a panel Tobit model and a mediating effect model to empirically analyze the impact of agricultural digitalization on fertilizer-use efficiency and its path of action. The results demonstrated the rapid development of agricultural digitalization in China since 2019. However, there were obvious regional differences in the level of development, with the eastern region being higher than the national average and the middle and western regions being lower. The benchmark regression results showed that agricultural digitalization significantly improved fertilizer use efficiency at the 1% significant level, and the conclusion remained valid after the endogeneity treatment and robustness test. The mechanism test demonstrated that agricultural digitalization improved fertilizer use efficiency by expanding the scale of agricultural land operation, promoting the development of agricultural socialized services, and using green technologies. The heterogeneity analysis demonstrated that agricultural digitalization has a significant positive impact on fertilizer use efficiency in non-grain-producing areas and western regions, but none in grain producing areas, the eastern and central regions. Therefore, we should continue positively to improve fertilizer use efficiency through agricultural digitalization, promote the transformation of agriculture in rural areas, improve the platform of the land transfer market, promote the development of socialized agricultural services, strengthen the promotion and training of green technologies, provide impetus to improve the mediating role, strengthen supporting for agricultural digitalization development in the western region and explore suitable agricultural digitalization technologies according to local conditions.