基于SWAT模型的洱海流域面源污染最佳管理措施研究
Simulation of the best management practices of agricultural non-point source pollution in the Erhai Lake basin based on SWAT model
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摘要: 农田最佳管理措施是当前控制流域面源污染的主要手段。为控制洱海流域氮磷面源污染, 探究洱海流域最佳农田管理措施, 采用率定和验证后的SWAT模型, 模拟了减少化肥施用量、改变耕作模式、建立植被缓冲带、河道植草及综合措施等16个情境下洱海流域氮磷流失削减效果。结果表明: (1)率定和验证后的SWAT模型, 决定系数(R2)最小为0.67, 纳什效率系数(Ens)最小为0.56, 符合SWAT模型的模拟精度要求(R2>0.60, Ens>0.50), 模型适用洱海流域最佳管理措施模拟研究。(2)化肥减施10%、20%、50%时, 对氮流失的削减率为9.1%~16.6%, 对磷流失的削减率为0.9%~4.4%。免耕、浅耕、深耕等耕作模式中, 深耕对流域氮磷流失控制效果最好, 氮和磷流失削减率分别为13.8%和14.1%。建立不同尺度的植被缓冲带对氮、磷流失的削减率分别为9.3%~22.5%、10.4%~24.6%。不同长度的植草河道对氮、磷流失的削减率分别为21.3%~39.6%、24.9~45.2%。(3)与单项措施相比, 综合措施对于氮磷削减效果更好, 化肥减施20%+深耕、化肥减施20%+深耕+布设5 m植被缓冲带、化肥减施20%+深耕+建立20 m植草河道对氮流失的削减率分别为27.4%、43.7%、41.6%, 对磷流失的削减率分别为19.2%、39.7%、61.1%。综合措施可显著减少流域氮磷面源污染负荷, 对于改善流域水环境, 提升流域综合环境质量起到重要作用。本研究量化了不同农田管理措施对洱海流域面源污染的影响, 筛选了最佳综合管理措施, 为洱海流域氮磷面源污染防治提供了理论依据。Abstract: Optimal farmland management measures are currently the main means of controlling surface source pollution in the Erhai Lake basin. This study aims to assess the effectiveness of various management strategies to mitigate surface source pollution in the basin and to identify the best practices for farmland management. Using a rate-determined and validated SWAT model, we simulated the effect of reducing nitrogen and phosphorus losses under 15 different scenarios, which included reducing the amount of chemical fertilizer application, altering cropping patterns, establishing vegetation buffer zones, planting grasses in river channel, and implementing comprehensive management measures. The results showed that the calibrated SWAT model demonstrated satisfactory performance, with a coefficient of determination (R²) of at least 0.67 (exceeding the threshold of 0.60) and a Nash efficiency coefficient (Ens) of at least 0.56 (surpassing the required 0.50), confirming its suitability for simulating effective management measures in the Erhai Lake basin. The analysis revealed that reducing fertilizer application by 10%, 20%, and 50% could lead to nitrogen reductions of 9.1% to 16.6% and phosphorus reductions of 0.9% to 4.4%. Among the various tillage practices examined, deep tillage proved most effective in controlling nitrogen and phosphorus losses, achieving reductions of 13.8% and 14.1%, respectively. The establishment of vegetation buffer zones resulted in nitrogen loss reductions ranging from 9.3% to 22.5% and phosphorus loss reductions from 10.4% to 24.6%. The implementation of grass-vegetated river channels led to nitrogen reductions of 21.3% to 39.6% and phosphorus reductions of 24.9% to 45.2%. Compared with individual measures, comprehensive measures demonstrated significantly higher efficiencies in reducing nitrogen and phosphorus levels. For example, the combination of a 20% reduction in fertilizer application with deep ploughing achieved nitrogen reductions of 27.4%, which increased to 43.7% with the addition of a 5m vegetation buffer zone, and 41.6% with a 20m grassed river channel. The corresponding phosphorus reduction efficiencies were 19.2%, 39.7%, and 61.1%, respectively. In conclusion, the integrated management measures substantially reduced surface source pollution loads in the watershed compared to individual strategies. This study not only quantifies the impacts of various farmland management practices on surface pollution in the Erhai Lake basin but also provides a theoretical foundation for effective prevention and control measures against surface pollution.