粮食主产区低碳农业耦合协调分析基于农业碳排放效率的视角

Coupling and coordination analysis of low-carbon agriculture in major grain-producing areas

  • 摘要: 探究低碳农业系统间的耦合协调度对粮食主产区开展低碳农业协调均衡发展具有重要的现实指导意义。本文在测度我国覆盖松花江流域、黄河流域和长江流域的粮食主产区13个省份(自治区)农业碳排放效率的基础上, 通过构建包含农业碳排放效率的农业碳排放、农业经济发展和农业生态环境的低碳农业评价系统, 运用耦合协调模型对粮食主产区2001—2021年低碳农业系统间的耦合协调度进行测度, 并探究各系统协调演变的时空规律。结果表明: 2001—2021年, 粮食主产区农业碳排放效率均值呈波动上升趋势, 2021年农业碳排放效率均值最高为0.964, 距离最佳生产前沿面仍存在一定距离; 省域差异上, 2021年辽宁省农业碳排放效率水平最高(1.184), 安徽最低(0.522), 且农业碳排放效率均值表现为松花江流域>黄河流域>长江流域, 农业碳排放效率水平省域差异较大。粮食主产区低碳农业系统的整体耦合协调度呈增长趋势, 耦合协调等级处于协调发展阶段, 但距离良好、优质协调还有一定距离。各省份低碳农业系统间的耦合协调度处在0.6到0.9之间, 呈明显上升趋势, 耦合等级经历初级协调、中级协调到良好协调的发展阶段, 但省域间差别较大, 耦合协调度总体呈现“北高南低”和“东高西低”的态势。基于此, 本文提出未来应加强区域间合作, 贯彻低碳生产新理念和加强农业科技创新等政策建议。

     

    Abstract: Low-carbon agricultural production is the key to achieving green and high-quality agricultural development. The main grain-producing area is an important guarantee of national food security and the main area of the agricultural carbon emissions in China. Thus, exploring the degree of coupling and coordination between low-carbon agricultural systems is warranted to carry out the coordinated and balanced development of low-carbon agriculture in the major grain-producing areas. This study used the super-efficient SBM model to measure the agricultural carbon emission efficiency of 13 provinces (autonomous regions) in the major grain-producing areas of China, covering the Songhua, Yellow, and Yangtze River basins from 2001 to 2021. A low-carbon agricultural evaluation system of agricultural carbon emissions, agricultural economic development, and agroecological environment was constructed, which included the efficiency of agricultural carbon emissions. The coupling coordination model was adopted to measure the degree of coupling coordination between low-carbon agricultural systems in the major grain-producing areas to explore the spatial and temporal patterns of the coordinated evolution of each system. The results showed that: 1) the average value of agricultural carbon emission efficiency in the major grain-producing areas of China showed a fluctuating upward trend from 2001 to 2021, with the highest average value of 0.964 in 2021. The average value of agricultural carbon emission efficiency increased sharply during the period of study, but the average value remained lower than 1, which did not meet the optimal production frontiers. In terms of provincial differences in 2021, only Anhui and Hunan provinces in the major grain-producing areas did not reach the effective state of agricultural carbon emission efficiency. Liaoning Province had the highest level of agricultural carbon emission efficiency of 1.184, and Anhui Province had the lowest level of 0.522. The average value of agricultural carbon emission efficiency from high to low were Songhua River Basin > Yellow River Basin > Yangtze River Basin. This resulted in a significant difference in the level of agricultural carbon emission efficiency among the provinces. 2) From 2001 to 2021, the overall coupling and coordination degree of low-carbon agricultural systems in the major grain-producing areas showed a steady growth trend, and the coupling and coordination level was in the stage of coordinated development, which was still a certain distance away from high-quality coordination. During the study period, the coupling degree of coordination between low-carbon agricultural systems in the provinces was between 0.6 and 0.9, and showed a clear upward trend. The degree of coupling coordination went through development stage of primary coordination, intermediate coordination, to good coordination, but large differences were observed between provinces. The degree of coupling coordination showed a trend of “high in the north and low in the south” and “high in the east and low in the west”. Based on this, the following three countermeasures were proposed: first, strengthen inter-regional cooperation to jointly promote the development of low-carbon agriculture; second, implement the new concept of low-carbon production and continuously improve the low-carbon awareness of farmers; and third, strengthen the agricultural science and technology innovation, and continuously improve the agricultural carbon emission reduction technology.

     

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