四川省种植业碳排放现状、动态演进及预测

The situation, dynamic evolution, and prediction of carbon emissions in the planting industry of Sichuan Province

  • 摘要: 加强种植业碳排放测算, 可为推进种植业绿色低碳转型提供重要依据。本文针对种植业从投入到产出的全过程, 基于农地利用碳排放、稻田CH4排放和农地N2O排放3类主要来源, 运用碳排放系数法测算2010—2021年四川省种植业碳排放量, 从时序特征和地区差异揭示四川省种植业碳排放特征, 采用核密度分析法剖析四川省种植业碳排放动态演进趋势, 运用灰色预测模型预测2022—2030年四川省种植业碳排放量和碳排放强度。结果表明: 1)四川省种植业碳排放量在2010—2016年间呈波动上升趋势, 2016年以后呈波动下降趋势, 其碳排放强度在2010—2021年间持续降低, 四川省种植业碳排放以农地利用和稻田CH4碳排放为主, 2021年较2010年农地利用碳排放和稻田CH4排放比重均略有减少, 而农地N2O排放比重有所上升。2)四川省各市(自治州)种植业碳排放量和强度差异明显, 2021年碳排放量最高的南充市比最低的甘孜高24.69倍, 碳排放强度最高的巴中市比最低的甘孜高2.8倍。3)四川省五大区域种植业碳排放动态演进呈差异化特征, 成都平原、川南、川东北、攀西和川西北五大区域种植业碳排放强度总体均呈下降趋势, 但下降速度和变化幅度各异, 总体上五大区域内碳排放强度的差距在逐步缩小。4)四川省种植业碳排放量和碳排放强度预计保持稳步下降态势, 估计到2025年和2030年四川省种植业碳排放量将分别减少约68.72万t和137.84万t, 碳排放强度将分别减少约0.13 t·万元−1和0.26 t·万元−1。基于此, 四川省种植业碳减排应主要关注源于化肥投入和稻田CH4碳排放, 因此需因地制宜采取差异化的减排措施, 强化农业科技创新和推广, 提升四川省种植业绿色低碳整体发展水平。

     

    Abstract: Strengthening the calculation of carbon emissions in the planting industry will provide support for advancing green and low-carbon transformations. Focusing on the entire process of the planting industry, from input to output, this study utilized carbon emission coefficients to estimate the carbon emissions of the planting industry in Sichuan Province from 2010 to 2021. This estimation includes carbon emissions from three main sources: agricultural land use, rice field CH4 emissions, and agricultural land N2O emissions. This study aims to reveal the temporal characteristics and regional differences in carbon emissions from the planting industry in Sichuan Province. Furthermore, kernel density analysis was employed to analyze the dynamic evolution trend of carbon emissions from the planting industry of Sichuan Province. In addition, a gray prediction model was utilized to predict carbon emissions and intensity from the planting industry of Sichuan Province from 2022 to 2030. The results showed that: 1) carbon emissions from the planting industry in Sichuan Province showed a fluctuating increasing trend from 2010 to 2016 and a fluctuating decresing trend from 2016 to 2021, while carbon emission intensity continued to decrease from 2010 to 2021. Agricultural land use and rice field CH4 emissions were the primary contributors to carbon emissions from the planting industry. There was a decrease in the proportion of carbon emissions from agricultural land use and rice field CH4 in 2021 compared to 2010, whereas the proportions of agricultural land N2O emissions increased. 2) Significant differences exist in carbon emissions and intensity among the cities (prefectures) in Sichuan Province. In 2021, carbon emissions from the city (Nanchong) with the highest value was 24.69 times higher than that from the prefecture (Ganzi) with the lowest value, and carbon emission intensity of the city (Bazhong) with the highest value was 2.8 times higher than that of the prefecture (Ganzi) with the lowest value. 3) The dynamic evolution of carbon emissions in the planting industry across the five regions of Sichuan Province displayed different characteristics. The carbon emission intensity in the Chengdu Plain, south Sichuan, northeast Sichuan, Panzhihua-Xichang, and northwest Sichuan showed a decreasing trend, albeit with varying rates and extents of decline. Overall, the disparity in carbon emission intensity between these five regions gradually narrowed. 4) The projected trend suggests a steady decrease in both carbon emissions and intensity in the planting industry of Sichuan Province. It was estimated that by 2025 and 2030, the carbon emissions in the planting industry of Sichuan Province will decrease by approximately 68.72×104 t and 137.84×104 t, respectively, while the carbon emission intensity will decrease by 0.13 t·(104 ¥)–1 and 0.26 t·(104¥)–1. Based on these results, this study suggests that carbon emissions reduction in the planting industry of Sichuan Province mainly reduced the carbon emissions caused by chemical fertilizer input and rice field CH4. Tailored reduction measures need to be adopted according to local conditions, and agricultural scientific and technological innovation and promotion should be strengthened to improve green and low-carbon development in the planting industry of Sichuan Province.

     

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